- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Give your odds LSU makes it to Omaha based on brackets
Posted on 5/27/19 at 12:38 pm to TigerBR1111
Posted on 5/27/19 at 12:38 pm to TigerBR1111
quote:
Win Regional - 80% Win Super Regional - 30% 25% Chance we make it to Omaha
30% Super Regional is same as making it to Omaha. Why would one be different than the other?
1
Posted on 5/27/19 at 12:39 pm to TigerBR1111
30%. It will come down to pitching and USM has 7 lefties. Will Broussard be back?
Posted on 5/27/19 at 12:40 pm to TigerBR1111
I am optimistic that if we win the regional, we will win the SR to. I like the matchup with UGA and any other team in that regional.
Posted on 5/27/19 at 12:42 pm to tiger81
Not like it will be a new experience for this team going to Athens. I like the fact we play the same team on the road we’ve played on the road already. With Garza heating up if we can get Cabrera out of his funk I love our chances
Posted on 5/27/19 at 12:46 pm to doya2
quote:
30% Super Regional is same as making it to Omaha. Why would one be different than the other?
You have to multiply the 80% (Regional) times the 30% (Super). That’s 24%. I threw in one percent to make it 25%.
It’s basic probabilities. My most memorable and important takeaway from my years of attending class at LSU
This post was edited on 5/27/19 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 5/27/19 at 12:49 pm to LSU Tigershark
You have to get to the supers first to win it, and the OP suggests an 80% of getting there.
All told, it works out to ~25% chance of making it to Omaha.
All told, it works out to ~25% chance of making it to Omaha.
Posted on 5/27/19 at 12:57 pm to Rjlebla
quote:
I think a lot of predictions are coming from the heart and not based on what they’ve actually seen from this team this year. I wouldn’t give this team more than a 50% chance to make it out of Baton Rouge. And it’s not like we’ve been dominant at home.
I’m in the same place. If LSU got rolled in their regional could it really be considered shocking?
This team has been inconsistent all year long.
Posted on 5/27/19 at 2:02 pm to skullhawk
quote:you do know that Georgia would be on the road?
am optimistic that if we win the regional, we will win the SR to. I like the matchup with UGA and any other team in that regional.
Posted on 5/27/19 at 2:14 pm to Higgysmalls
70% regional
40% super
28% Omaha
40% super
28% Omaha
Posted on 5/27/19 at 2:44 pm to ShawSawTheMoor
quote:
Win Regional: 55%
Win Supers: 20%
About the way I see it, although I hope LSU plays well and makes it easier for the team. See if ASU gets hot and starts hitting dingers. LSU has just been too erratic in too many areas this season. Then again, UGA could lose their regional, nothing is given.
Posted on 5/27/19 at 2:55 pm to tirebiter
quote:
nothing is given
That's certainly been proven in recent years. Look at Vandy in 2013. #1 overall; lost in superregional. UCLA in 2015: #1 overall seed; proceeded to lose its own regional!
Posted on 5/27/19 at 2:55 pm to SmoothOperator96
quote:
350% chance we win it all
When in doubt, three fiddy.
Posted on 5/27/19 at 2:58 pm to TigerBR1111
0%
Posted on 5/27/19 at 3:04 pm to EST
We will get out of the regional and I feel fairly easily so I’ll say 90%. ASU hasn’t played well in a while. USM will be scrappy and has decent pitching but this isn’t close to one of the best teams they’ve had. They wouldn’t have made a regional if they didn’t win the conference tourney yesterday.
As for the Super I’ll say 30% if it’s in Athens. I mean we didn’t beat a good team 2 out of 3 on the road all year outside of MSU.
As for the Super I’ll say 30% if it’s in Athens. I mean we didn’t beat a good team 2 out of 3 on the road all year outside of MSU.
Posted on 5/27/19 at 3:38 pm to Old
quote:
Old
Gotta love optimistic Tiger fans.
Posted on 5/27/19 at 3:50 pm to TigerBR1111
Win Regional : 50 %
Win SR : 25 %
Odds to Omaha : 12.5 %
6-9 vs. Top 16 seeds. (.400)
(2/5) ^ 5 = 32/3125 ~ 0.0104 x 0.125
= 32/25000 = 0.128 %
Odds to Win NC : 0.128 %
Odds not to win NC = 99.872 %
Win SR : 25 %
Odds to Omaha : 12.5 %
6-9 vs. Top 16 seeds. (.400)
(2/5) ^ 5 = 32/3125 ~ 0.0104 x 0.125
= 32/25000 = 0.128 %
Odds to Win NC : 0.128 %
Odds not to win NC = 99.872 %
This post was edited on 5/27/19 at 4:12 pm
Posted on 5/27/19 at 3:56 pm to TigerBR1111
I’ll go 40% just because I’m not sure how I feel about Georgia’s regional and I don’t feel like we matchup the worst with Georgia anyway
Posted on 5/27/19 at 5:53 pm to TigerBR1111
If we bring our "A" game every game 100% chance of making it. However, this team has been inconsistent this season.
Posted on 6/2/19 at 11:26 pm to ArkLaTexTiger
Going to adjust my odds to 65%. Better than before but FSU is dangerous right now playing for their retiring coach.
Posted on 6/2/19 at 11:28 pm to TigerBR1111
Page 2 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News