- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: ESPN's Football Power Index Predicts 9-3 Regular Season for LSU
Posted on 7/8/19 at 4:28 pm to mhc4tigers
Posted on 7/8/19 at 4:28 pm to mhc4tigers
I can’t wait till the season starts.....
0
Posted on 7/8/19 at 4:39 pm to HotTakeHerald
You just pulled 9.3 and 2.7 out of your arse.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 4:42 pm to Diesel88
quote:
At state is our 2nd hardest game?
Wut?
Yeah... thats not right. If that was the case anything worse than 11-1 would be unacceptable
Posted on 7/8/19 at 4:50 pm to Penrod
Well, I can apply similar “odds” and mine would also indicate that the ‘percentage chance’ to beat better teams is lower.
Still arbitrary. I did not say “random “
Still arbitrary. I did not say “random “
Posted on 7/8/19 at 4:52 pm to BlackHelicopterPilot
If for some reason this LSU team does go 9-3, that would be a disaster
Posted on 7/8/19 at 4:56 pm to Penrod
While I understand why this works statistically, I believe this is a wholly over simplified way of looking at it. While I get that cards represent the percentages accurately, you don’t go into football games blind and a winner doesn’t get chosen out of a hat. For example some of the ones that we have an 80 to 90 percent chance are really just espn being nice, because we could play those games 30 times and only lose maybe once. Statistically speaking, if we played a team that we had a 66% chance to beat 3 times, and used your card analogy, we could lose to them 3 times in a row. While the statistical chance of that happening is 3.5%, I would say the actual chance of it happening is much much lower than that.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 5:24 pm to Terrific Tales
quote:
Statistically speaking, if we played a team that we had a 66% chance to beat 3 times, and used your card analogy, we could lose to them 3 times in a row. While the statistical chance of that happening is 3.5%, I would say the actual chance of it happening is much much lower than that.
If the “actual chance” is lower, then the single-game win probability is not 66%.
This isn’t some crazy theory, it’s math. quote:
For example some of the ones that we have an 80 to 90 percent chance are really just espn being nice, because we could play those games 30 times and only lose maybe once.
29/30 would be a 97% win probability. FPI is predicting the following for our home OOC matchups:
vs. GASO - 96.7%
vs. NWST - 99.8%
vs. USU - 97.9%
The games that fall into the “80-90%” category you described are:
at Vanderbilt - 84.0%
at Ole Miss - 82.7%
Which of these do you think should be 97%?
Posted on 7/8/19 at 5:25 pm to The Pirate King
Yeah it should make some seats extremely hot. No excuse for another 3 loss regular season. If we don’t do better than 9-3 this year then the change in coaching was worthless. The Ws are all that matters in this business.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 5:35 pm to Goldrush25
quote:
There are not 3 acceptable losses on this schedule.
The best statement of the off-season so far.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 5:37 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Sick of this shite. We have an experienced QB coming back with talent all over the field and a nasty defense.
Well I’m sick of people like you so everything should be fine.
This post was edited on 7/8/19 at 5:38 pm
Posted on 7/8/19 at 5:45 pm to Penrod
quote:
No, it isn't. Try it out; it's an easy experiment. Get three playing cards - two Aces and one King. Place them face down and draw one.
That's only the beginning of why the OP's post was just goofy. First, your example with playing cards lets you assume that event probabilities are a priori known, because in classical probability you can just count outcomes. On each repetition you have a 2/3 probability of winning. Binomial probability of going undefeated is 12 choose 12 times 2/3 to the twelfth power, or 0.018. Less than a 2% chance of 12 staight wins if each game is independent and has a known .67 probability of success.
However that is totally irrelevant to the issue. Game outcomes may not be totally independent, and more importantl, probabilities of success on each is unknown. Original post was just fantasy of someone who had no information beyond what we all have from the Rant and had to meet a deadline to publish. Like last year's expert who explained why we would only win seven games.
Each of the individual game probabilities will be determined by last week's injuries, motivation, SEC referee frickery, and mindset and physicality of the opponent. So nobody knows if we will be 12-0 or 4-8 and the same for the Gumps.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 5:50 pm to Guava Jelly
quote:It's called probability.
Imputing a season win total based on a series of predictions of discrete events doesn't make a lot of sense to begin with. Whether your solution is 9.5 wins or 11 wins, you're doing it wrong.
And I did it right.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 5:51 pm to mhc4tigers
quote:
The over under on wins is 10.2. Vegas has LSU. 11 and 1.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 5:51 pm to Diesel88
quote:Wrong. It's called probability, and it's math.
You just pulled 9.3 and 2.7 out of your arse.
You could learn it.
Maybe.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 5:54 pm to Salviati
Cant say i disagree.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 6:00 pm to CajunPhil
quote:
That's only the beginning of why the OP's post was just goofy. First, your example with playing cards lets you assume that event probabilities are a priori known, because in classical probability you can just count outcomes. On each repetition you have a 2/3 probability of winning. Binomial probability of going undefeated is 12 choose 12 times 2/3 to the twelfth power, or 0.018. Less than a 2% chance of 12 staight wins if each game is independent and has a known .67 probability of success.
However that is totally irrelevant to the issue. Game outcomes may not be totally independent, and more importantl, probabilities of success on each is unknown. Original post was just fantasy of someone who had no information beyond what we all have from the Rant and had to meet a deadline to publish. Like last year's expert who explained why we would only win seven games.
Each of the individual game probabilities will be determined by last week's injuries, motivation, SEC referee frickery, and mindset and physicality of the opponent. So nobody knows if we will be 12-0 or 4-8 and the same for the Gumps.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. No one can predict the unknown . . . so no one will ever put odds on anything. And no one will bet those odds. And no one will ever attempt to predict anything. And no one will ever read an article or watch a segment about preseason predictions.
quote:LINK
The industry makes a total contribution of around 137.5 billion U.S. dollars to the U.S. economy annually and directly employs more than 730 thousand people. Worldwide, the gross gambling yield (GGY) of the gambling market was forecasted to grow annually to reach 495 billion U.S. dollars in 2019.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 6:20 pm to Salviati
Didn't say no one can predict game outcomes, I predict game outcomes all the time, and like anybody else get the easy ones right and miss on the tough ones about half the time. I just don't delude myself into thinking that predictingt the outcome of a conference game is anything but a wild guess based on feelings, alcohol, and weather.
Sure, I think we have as good a chance of going undefeated this year as anybody including Bama, OSU, Clemson, Ga, maybe we will. We've done it a couple of times in the last 110 years. Could have been 3 times if nick hadn't gotten a do-over in 2012. Could be this year. But I don't believe that there is anything beyond a religious conviction to assign a probability to, say the Florida game or the Aggie game. Don't fool yourself by assigning a number and calling it a probability.
Sure, I think we have as good a chance of going undefeated this year as anybody including Bama, OSU, Clemson, Ga, maybe we will. We've done it a couple of times in the last 110 years. Could have been 3 times if nick hadn't gotten a do-over in 2012. Could be this year. But I don't believe that there is anything beyond a religious conviction to assign a probability to, say the Florida game or the Aggie game. Don't fool yourself by assigning a number and calling it a probability.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 6:25 pm to CajunPhil
quote:
Don't fool yourself by assigning a number and calling it a probability.
You're not going to get me to defend ESPN's FPI.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 6:26 pm to Salviati
Why do we only have a 65% chance of beating MSU? Are they supposed to be good?
Posted on 7/9/19 at 12:49 am to The Pirate King
quote:
osted by The Pirate King ? on 7/8/19 at 1:19 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
9-3 should lead to heads rolling.
Nah
in your eyes there is no win/loss number that should result in O getting fired.
Page 4 of 5
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News