I think this very clearly illustrates what we kind of already knew after the Auburn game. We are not the team people thought we were but also there really Still is it a consensus on what team we actually are. Are we at 12-0? Are we and 11-1 team? Or are we say a nine 9-3 team?

Personally, I think we are a nine and three team with losses to Georgia, Alabama, and a letdown game with either Florida or A&M. But I will say I’m not confident in my prediction at all, to start the season I was confident we were a 6-6 team. And that just goes to show that I am a blithering idiot.

Also, [insert an obligatory fire Joe comment here].

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Posted by idlewatcher

County Jail

Member since Jan 2012

79179 posts

Posted on 10/4/18 at 2:34 pm to Stuckinthe90s

quote:
Or are we say a nine 9-3 team?

I'll take an 18-3 record

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Posted by SanJoseTigerFan

San Jose, CA

Member since Feb 2013

1992 posts

Posted on 10/4/18 at 7:20 pm to Rougarou13

Sorry Math for Marines has failed me again

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Posted by TeddyPadillac

Member since Dec 2010

25600 posts

Posted on 10/5/18 at 8:58 am to SanJoseTigerFan

quote:
But if they emerge from the Alabama game with a 9-0 record, their chance to reach the playoff would jump from 6 percent currently to 55 percent.

So this FPI says if we beat UF, UGA, MSU and Bama, and are undefeated with just Rice, Ar-Kansas, and A&M left, as well as the SECCG, we only have a 55% chance to make the playoffs? That's ridiculous.
Bama has a 75% chance today, even though they still have to play @LSU and Auburn, and then a SECCG maybe against UGA.
The sad part is we can be 9-0, beat Bama, and Bama is the team that has the better chance to make the playoffs than us b/c we could lose to UGA in the SECCG, even though we beat them once, and we all have 1 loss and we'd get left out b/c we didn't win the conference like UGA, and Bama gets in over LSU b/c the committee doesn't think LSU is better than Bama, even though Bama would have only 1 win vs a ranked opponent all year, while LSU will have 4 top 10 wins including Bama.

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Posted by thetruth2006

Dallas, TX

Member since Dec 2005

330 posts

Posted on 10/5/18 at 9:38 am to LSUTIGERTAILG8ER

The ESPN FPI doesn't try and determine where teams are today but instead is programmed to predict where they will be at season end. It's programming penalizes teams for games it projects will be lost in the future.

The FPI is also still loaded with preseason biases it was fed that expected LSU would not be very good this year and that other teams would be better. It's current day rankings also factor in the computer's assumptions about a team's future wins and losses - as projected by the computer. So a team with a more difficult schedule ahead may be ranked much lower in the FPI than a less talented team that has an easier schedule ahead.

Sadly, a computer can't think. It can only compute data as it's programmed. If the input data and programming are poor, like with the ESPN FPI, the results are useless. The ESPN FPI has been told that LSU is terrible and that Alabama is invincible and that there are many teams between the two. Computers don't watch games - they just believe what they are told is true by their programmers.

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