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Message
re: Coach Mainieri's comments after the game
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:47 pm to moneyg
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:47 pm to moneyg
quote:
Well, you are clearly just wrong.
So what are the odds of the play being successful. The odds Raph doesn't swing through the ball and Katz is gunned at second? The odds of Raph not hitting the ball directly at a player?
If you think its not considerably under 50/50 then you are the one that's wrong.
Now what are the odds of laying down a bunt? Like I said, the only reason I'm even willing to concede there's an argument to be made is that we don't know hoe proficient Raph is at bunting.
2
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:48 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
I've wondered that myself. I don't think he was that uncomfortable with him bunting though, as he had the bunt on initially.
Yea, but that fact that he took it off should tell you that he was second guessing whether raph could get it down. There had to be someone on the bench that he was more comfortable with. I don't buy that he was gambling and playing for the win. I think he was unsure if raph could get the bunt down and figured he was going to get a 2-0 fastball and he had a better chance to either move katz or get a hit by swinging than he did to get a bunt down.
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:51 pm to dnm3305
quote:
Because getting him to second is better than getting runners on 1st and 3rd right. And as PurpleAndGold has said countless times, a hit and run is perfectly capable of accomplishing the same thing. One of the only things Rhymes couldnt do is what he did.
quote:
dnm3305
A hit and run is no where near as high percentage of a play. Please note the number of sac bunts used by the other seven teams in this series.
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:51 pm to dnm3305
quote:
Well technically you can
True, I should have worded that a bit differently.
quote:
s zero evidence that supports it increases your chances of winning by playing for the team instead of playing for the win.
But there's ample evidence to support the contention that you lose if you can't produce the tying run. In fact its 100% accurate.
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:52 pm to Holden Caulfield
quote:
So what are the odds of the play being successful. The odds Raph doesn't swing through the ball and Katz is gunned at second? The odds of Raph not hitting the ball directly at a player?
So youre saying that the odds of a player that has a .408 OBP cant hit what is prlly 95% going to be a fastball around the zone on the ground the opposite way is going to be less than that same player successfully getting down a bunt when he has zero career sac bunts? Are you kidding me?
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:52 pm to dnm3305
quote:
, but there is zero evidence that supports it increases your chances of winning by playing for the team instead of playing for the win.
There is zero chance of winning if you don't at least tie the game.
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:54 pm to Holden Caulfield
quote:
The odds Raph doesn't swing through the ball and Katz is gunned at second?
I've stated already that this is the biggest risk.
quote:line drive? Very low...probably < 10%.
The odds of Raph not hitting the ball directly at a player?
quote:
If you think its not considerably under 50/50 then you are the one that's wrong.
Are you suggesting that with a hit and run on, the chances of a double play are 50/50? Seriously? If I misunderstood, please clarify. If that is what you think, then I think we have identified why your position is what it is.
quote:
Now what are the odds of laying down a bunt? Like I said, the only reason I'm even willing to concede there's an argument to be made is that we don't know hoe proficient Raph is at bunting.
Your thinking on the subject is way too shallow. CLEARLY, the odds of getting the bunt down are greater than the odds of base hit with Rhymes or a ground ball that moves Katz over anyway.
BUT, you have not considered the opportunity costs that you have lost by allowing Rhymes to swing away and not give away the out.
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:54 pm to Bernie Moore
quote:
A hit and run is no where near as high percentage of a play. Please note the number of sac bunts used by the other seven teams in this series
Please quit taking it out of context. We are talking about one specific player in one specific moment with one specific count. There's prlly only 3 guys on LSU's team that a hit and run is a good choice, with Rhymes prlly being the best as he hits the ball on the ground the most. IN THAT SITUATION, THE HIT AND RUN WAS A REASONABLE AND JUSTIFIABLE CALL.
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:54 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
There is zero chance of winning if you don't at least tie the game.
quote:
RogerTheShrubber
agreed!
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:55 pm to dnm3305
quote:
cant hit what is prlly 95% going to be a fastball around the zone
And how did you determine the 95% figur?. You been scouting UCLA pitchers all year? The guy had thrown two balls nowhere near the plate to Raph at that point.
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:57 pm to dnm3305
quote:
Please quit taking it out of context. We are talking about one specific player in one specific moment with one specific count. There's prlly only 3 guys on LSU's team that a hit and run is a good choice, with Rhymes prlly being the best as he hits the ball on the ground the most. IN THAT SITUATION, THE HIT AND RUN WAS A REASONABLE AND JUSTIFIABLE CALL.
PM called it a gamble as opposed to the bunt. Once again,did u ever play baseball? Home teams win more than they lose.
This post was edited on 6/17/13 at 4:58 pm
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:57 pm to JustSmokin
Anybody bitching about the hit and run with Rhymes doesn't know shite about baseball.
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:57 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
There is zero chance of winning if you don't at least tie the game.
Well a retarded monkey can give you that logic. Congrats. That still doesnt mean the strategy of playing FOR the tie as opposed to playing FOR the win is quantifiable. It's just something people say and everyone believes, just like the 3 triple crown categories being the most important statistics that translate offensive performance. But, because some writer said it 120 yrs ago, it must be right, right?
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:58 pm to Bernie Moore
quote:we were going outside the strike zone all night, but that ball was clearly a strike.
Rymes did not hit the ball to the rt side. He swung at a low pitch outside the strike zone and rolled over on it instead of punching it to rt side of diamond.
& he put the ball on the ground
a H&R does not have to be hit to the oppo side
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:58 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
There is zero chance of winning if you don't at least tie the game.
That is very simplistic and shallow reasoning that doesn't necessarily support that playing for the tie gives you the best chance to win.
This post was edited on 6/17/13 at 5:00 pm
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:59 pm to dnm3305
quote:
Well a retarded monkey can give you that logic. Congrats. That still doesnt mean the strategy of playing FOR the tie as opposed to playing FOR the win is quantifiable. It's just something people say and everyone believes, just like the 3 triple crown categories being the most important statistics that translate offensive performance. But, because some writer said it 120 yrs ago, it must be right, right?
They still plat the percentages and sac bunt was the call.
Posted on 6/17/13 at 4:59 pm to moneyg
quote:
Are you suggesting that with a hit and run on, the chances of a double play are 50/50?
Did I say any such thing? If successfully executed the play greatly reduces the chance of a DP
quote:
Your thinking on the subject is way too shallow. CLEARLY, the odds of getting the bunt down are greater than the odds of base hit with Rhymes or a ground ball that moves Katz over anyway.
Sorry, but you're just plain wrong on that count. I noticed UCLA bunting and forgoing the hit and run all night. Might be because one has a higher success rate than the other.
This post was edited on 6/17/13 at 5:00 pm
Posted on 6/17/13 at 5:00 pm to Bernie Moore
quote:
PM called it a gamble as opposed to the bunt.
It was a tongue and cheek statement. It might have been a gamble, but it was a slight one that had a high probability of succeeding. Setting yourself up with a runner on 2nd and 1 out is a gamble as well. Youre gambling that you will def get a base hit before those two outs are made. Moore did get a base hit but you cant look at that in hindsight. The pitch selection and approach would have been completely dif to Moore with runners on.
Posted on 6/17/13 at 5:01 pm to Billy Ray Valentine
quote:
so you would have rathered he take the pitch & Katz get thrown out stealing? or are you saying take a pitch with no steal there? That pitch was right down the dick...good pitch to H&R.
I think he should have been showing bunt but not offering until he threw a strike.
I did not like the hit and run call but do understand why he called it.
Why not be patient and see off RR could draw a walk? The guy throws 82 tops so he isn't going to blow it by RR. Chances are it would have eventually been a full count and you can put Katz in motion then.
Posted on 6/17/13 at 5:01 pm to Holden Caulfield
quote:
And how did you determine the 95% figur?.
quote:
You been scouting UCLA pitchers all year?
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