re: Cade Doughty returns, but is slotted at third base; Thompson to SS

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Wyeth and Malazzo are still somewhat interchangeable, with Malazzo having the slight edge, IMO.

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This didn't age well

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A - Crews may be best in the lead off spot

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He and Morgan have the same OBP. Morgan is faster and hits more singles with the higher average. Everything you want in a leadoff even by the old and new standards.

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B - Morgan may be our best RBI guy

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It's still Crews.

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C - Crews has failed a lot with RISP

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He keeps getting walked in these situations. I redid his PAs w/RISP. He's 1 for 10 with 6 walks. Of those 16 PAs 10 were in the first 5 games of the season. That's even with 2 last night. He went 5 games with only 3 chances. He almost had one last night but Thompson was caught at home by a great play.

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So now he's going to dig in deeper and move the goal post a bit. IF Crews didn't hit the HRs

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Uh. I've been saying that. Before the ORU series someone had mentioned his runs scored and I pointed out the number of Runs he scored off of RBIs from others and not himself.

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Morgan is just a singles hitter, ignoring the team leading numbers in triples and doubles.

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Morgan has the most hits and highest average now. Yet his slugging is still 3rd. 12 of his 19 hits are singles. No scout would say he has power nor does he have the swing for much lift. His speed is a huge plus obviously but he's a line drive guy more than anything. That's not a moved goal post, that's just a fact.

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In order to get him the most at bats.

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Except that's not the reason.

I explained it here

Over a season, you are looking at just 6-7 ABs from the leadoff to the 2nd spot. That's not a reason for anything. And that number is even lower now because he has the exact same PAs as Morgan who's been at the 2. If it's the reason (which it's not), it's a really bad reason.

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It’s on average 6 or 7 plate appearances and not at bats over the course of a college regular season between lead off and second place hitters.

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Yeah, I keep using ABs but I mean PAs.

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And like stocks what happened in the past is no indication of what may happen in the future. There’s no way to know how many more plate appearances our lead off guys may get over the second place guys. We know second won’t get more appearances and that’s about it.

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We don't know the exact number but we can get a really good estimate because we have so much data. There's a probability that he ends up getting a certain amount at the start of the season. That probable amount decreases as we go through games and he and Morgan continue to have the same amount.

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We don't know the exact number but we can get a really good estimate because we have so much data. There's a probability that he ends up getting a certain amount at the start of the season. That probable amount decreases as we go through games and he and Morgan continue to have the same amount.

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There’s a 1 out of 9 chance that our lead off guy will bat last.
That’s the same odds before every game.
It’s no different than flipping a coin. You can flip a coin and it labs on heads five straight times and on the 11 try it’s still 50/50.

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There’s a 1 out of 9 chance that our lead off guy will bat last.

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Again, it's not that simple. And while it can be generalized to 1/9, it's 1 out of 9 for the remainder games. So if we start with 60 games, that's about 7 PAs expected. But at 45 games that drops to an expectation of 5 PAs. The probability continues to drop and it's less and less likely that total hits 7.

To get more specific on the probabilities, we know that games more often end during the 5th time through the lineup and most often in the middle/end. It's not exactly a 1/9 probability for each spot. Baseball stats guys are big nerds.

look at you Mr. Big Shot Math Minor.



I took a math course Fall semester, freshman year.

Ew

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So that’s just your opinion as to why he’s batting lead off?

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Yes. If it’s to get him more ABs, that’s fricking retarded and I would hope our coach realizes that it has meant zero different lice between 1 and 2. It’s the worst excuse you could make.

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Alan has been prone to use the fastball way too much in the first couple innings

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vs inferior opponents yes, he tends to throw more FBs and overpower them. I’ll see what I can find.

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don’t spout off your opinions as if they are undeniable facts.

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