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Started By
Message
re: Bunting is stupid because they’re going to walk Crews and White
Posted on 5/14/23 at 4:57 pm to TigerLunatik
Posted on 5/14/23 at 4:57 pm to TigerLunatik
Good decision bad execution. He tried to bunt on ball 4.
1
Posted on 5/14/23 at 4:58 pm to catholictigerfan
You don’t give up an out to do that at the top of the lineup. A double by Dugas, Morgan or crews scores Kling.
You’re also guaranteeing Crews and white don’t hit. It was fricking stupid
You’re also guaranteeing Crews and white don’t hit. It was fricking stupid
Posted on 5/14/23 at 4:58 pm to tigerfan88
If Tre’ hits a base hit we win. If he gets on with one out, and Kling is stuck at 3rd they don’t walk Crews. If they do to load the bases, that puts White up.
I’m not a “bunt lover”, but the strategy wasn’t what you explained.
I’m not a “bunt lover”, but the strategy wasn’t what you explained.
Posted on 5/14/23 at 4:58 pm to tigerfan88
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/14/23 at 5:00 pm
Posted on 5/14/23 at 5:00 pm to tigerfan88
Trying to bunt ball 4 was bad
Miss St put it all on the line and it paid off. Even within milazzo up, that was ballsy
Miss St put it all on the line and it paid off. Even within milazzo up, that was ballsy
Posted on 5/14/23 at 5:00 pm to barry
quote:
and modern analytics backs that up
No it absolutely does not. Bunting down one actually LOWERS your probability of winning. By a pretty significant drop.
Posted on 5/14/23 at 5:01 pm to subidc
quote:
Good decision bad execution. He tried to bunt on ball 4.
Well, yeah. You're taking out our most experienced hitter to put in a true freshman that missed a lot of time to produce in a pressure situation. That's what makes it a bad decision IMO.
Posted on 5/14/23 at 5:08 pm to TigerLunatik
Nippolt is a 3rd year player, not a true freshmen
Posted on 5/14/23 at 5:12 pm to Lester Earl
Thank you, sir. My mistake.
Posted on 5/14/23 at 5:14 pm to TigerOnTheMountain
quote:
No it absolutely does not. Bunting down one actually LOWERS your probability of winning. By a pretty significant drop.
1) The game was tied, not down one
2) The run expectancy is higher for 0 outs and man on first than 1 out and man on second, but the odds of scoring AT LEAST 1 run, i.e. the winning run in a tie game bot 9, is higher with 1 out and man on 2nd.
Posted on 5/14/23 at 5:15 pm to barry
It isn’t dude. It drops from about a .94 chance to .75.
Posted on 5/14/23 at 5:18 pm to TigerOnTheMountain
quote:
It isn’t dude. It drops from about a .94 chance to .75.
FOR THE THIRD TIME THATS TOTAL RUN EXPECTANCY. So its higher because sometimes you score 2 runs, 3 runs, etc. But bunting in a tie game in the bot of the 9th gives you a better chance to score 1 run and scoring two runs is pointless so thats why the run expectancy chart doesn't apply.
Posted on 5/14/23 at 5:19 pm to tigerfan88
Yup. It was an absolutely stupid call. We said that in the game thread anyone could see it.
Posted on 5/14/23 at 5:20 pm to barry
You do not understand what you’re reading 
Posted on 5/14/23 at 5:25 pm to TigerOnTheMountain
quote:
You do not understand what you’re reading
I do, those are run expectancy values, not percentage change to score 1 run
Posted on 5/14/23 at 5:29 pm to tigerfan88
Particularly when you bunt at ball 4
Posted on 5/14/23 at 5:31 pm to tigerfan88
If it works he's a genius if it don't he's the worst. ??
Posted on 5/14/23 at 7:46 pm to Geauxtigersgeaux12
quote:
I mean he tried to bunt a ball at his ankles that would’ve been ball 4 and they couldn’t walk both.
^This.
Posted on 5/14/23 at 7:50 pm to tigerfan88
Personally think being able to intentionally walk a batter has been the worst thing for baseball. This only gives subpar teams the advantage when they don’t have to pitch to a good hitter. Today they were able to just signal 2 times without having to throw the ball away. I think there should be a rule where you can’t intentionally walk more than one in one inning
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