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re: Bracketology: LSU first 4 out (bubble talk)

Posted on 3/3/16 at 9:44 am to
Posted by More beer please
Member since Feb 2010
46195 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 9:44 am to
quote:

We still have the SEC tournament after that, and a one and done showing there would undo a lot of the boost we'd get from a win at UK. I think we'll need at least one win in Nashville as well to have a shot, and I'll start feeling good if we can win two and make it to the final.


Lundardi said we have to win @UK AND make the finals to get in.
Posted by UptownnMike
Uptown New Orleans
Member since Aug 2015
4124 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 9:44 am to
Lunardi just said if we win we're in
Posted by drizztiger
Deal With it!
Member since Mar 2007
44706 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 9:46 am to
quote:

With an atrocious OOC showing. I tried telling you guys back in December that those games counted. They were important.
They weren't important for LSU making the NCAAT until LSU decided to lose at home to Bama and get blown out @Tenn and @Ark in back-to-back-to-back games. LSU was right on track for an NCAAT bid until those 3 games. Win 2 of those 3 and LSU would be considered IN right now even with a loss @UK.
Posted by ULSU
Tasmania
Member since Jan 2014
3931 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 9:48 am to
My question is:

Can LSU lose to Kentucky, and then win 2-3 in the SECT and still get in (without winning the SECT)?

Thoughts?

Here is my scenario: Lose to UK, then beat Auburn and TAMU in the SECT before losing to UK or Vandy let's say. Are we in?
This post was edited on 3/3/16 at 9:50 am
Posted by drizztiger
Deal With it!
Member since Mar 2007
44706 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 9:49 am to
quote:

Can LSU lose to Kentucky, and then win 2-3 in the SECT and still get in (without winning the SECT)?

I would say no.

LSU needs to win @UK and one, hopefully 2 SECT wins.
Or they need to win the SECT.

Losing @UK and going 2-1 in SECT doesn't do it IMO.
This post was edited on 3/3/16 at 9:52 am
Posted by pellietigersaint
Tiger Stadium
Member since Aug 2005
19043 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 9:52 am to
quote:

DREADS r SICK

Updated bracketology: LSU first 4 out
The the purple and gold glasses off fool. Do you really thing LSU is a tournament team? No heart. No emotion. I would rather not make the tourney than get embarrassed on national television.


you are a clown brah
Posted by CheerWhine
A little bit of Mardi Gras
Member since Apr 2014
77125 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 9:54 am to
That's what I meant... a loss at UK would kill our at-large chances, even if we made it to the SECT finals. It would be auto bid or bust at that point.
Posted by atltiger6487
Member since May 2011
19707 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 9:55 am to
quote:

That's not the point...

RPI doesn't take score into account at all...

The No 200 team could lose to the number 1 team by 150 points and move up...

RPI also doesn't take home court advantage into account which may be the worst part of the whole damn thing. In the SEC, home team wins 70% of the time, however RPI doesn't take location into account at all.


Great point, and I agree that this is absurd. RPI should factor in all relevant data points, and margin of victory is a huge big one. Home or away is also a big one.
Posted by Choupique19
The cheap seats
Member since Sep 2005
64471 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 10:11 am to
quote:

They weren't important for LSU making the NCAAT until LSU decided to lose at home to Bama and get blown out @Tenn and @Ark in back-to-back-to-back games. LSU was right on track for an NCAAT bid until those 3 games. Win 2 of those 3 and LSU would be considered IN right now even with a loss @UK.


So basically, after the OOC schedule was complete (minus OU) LSU had to win the SEC Regular Season title to be a lock for a NCAA tournament birth. Yeah, let's blame it on not winning the SEC and not blame it on sleepwalking through several games against overmatched opponents instead.


Knowing what we know now, do you think Ben Simmons wishes he would have taken the last shot against Marquette instead of passing to a teammate behind the three point line? Or the last shot in regulation against NC State?
Posted by KamaCausey_LSU
Member since Apr 2013
17018 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 10:13 am to
quote:

Cry me a river (not you personally), but if LSU had beaten Houston, who may win the AAC, we'd be in right now most likely. We lost to a bunch of mediocre teams. This is not on the scheduling, and completely on the team/coach.


And we would have most likely beaten Houston if we had our full squad for that game. But without Victor we were without a serviceable big man outside of Simmons. That's where I do like ESPN's BPI, I'm pretty sure it discounts games where key players are missing.
Posted by Choupique19
The cheap seats
Member since Sep 2005
64471 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 10:17 am to
quote:

And we would have most likely beaten Houston if we had our full squad for that game. But without Victor we were without a serviceable big man outside of Simmons


He probably would have been on the bench with foul trouble.
Posted by ULSU
Tasmania
Member since Jan 2014
3931 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 10:23 am to
Chicken Knowles dominated us without Victor
Posted by drizztiger
Deal With it!
Member since Mar 2007
44706 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 10:23 am to
quote:

So basically, after the OOC schedule was complete (minus OU) LSU had to win the SEC Regular Season title to be a lock for a NCAA tournament birth.
No, they needed to finish 13-5 in SEC play to lock up NCAAT bid. That could have put them between 1-4 in standings most likely. A lot of SEC have faltered 2nd half of season so the standings have been fluid.

Not winning winnable games in mid-late February is much more impactful than winning/losing games in Nov/Dec.
This post was edited on 3/3/16 at 10:25 am
Posted by Choupique19
The cheap seats
Member since Sep 2005
64471 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 10:29 am to
quote:

No, they needed to finish 13-5 in SEC play to lock up NCAAT bid.


So asking LSU to do something (win 13 conference games) that they have done once in the last 9 years, and twice in the last 24 years isn't asking more than just beat mediocre teams in November and December?

quote:

Not winning winnable games in mid-late February is much more impactful than winning/losing games in Nov/Dec.


They count the same. If the SEC games counted more LSU would have long been ahead of the tournament "bubble" over teams like Bama, UF, and Vandy, who have trailed us in SEC rankings for over a month now.
Posted by drizztiger
Deal With it!
Member since Mar 2007
44706 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 10:32 am to
quote:

They count the same.
That's why the committee looks at first 10 games played and not last 10 games played during the discussions. Because Nov is equal to March. Ok.
Posted by Choupique19
The cheap seats
Member since Sep 2005
64471 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 10:38 am to
One game here and there, I'll concede that the NCAA committee will value the late game more. Sure, if LSU went 8-2 or 9-1 in it's last 10 it would have been huge. But they didn't. And they will not override 5 bad, bad, bad losses in November and December with an okay streak of play down the stretch. LSU had not much wiggle room at all in SEC play thanks to the play before New Year's.
Posted by Bonkers119
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2015
11610 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 10:40 am to
Watch us beat Kentucky and one in done in SECT, then get another 9 seed like last year...
Posted by drizztiger
Deal With it!
Member since Mar 2007
44706 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 10:48 am to
So what we're saying combined is that LSU left themselves no wiggle room by tanking Nov/Dec, then when they climbed back into it and were positioning themselves for an NCAAT bid, they tanked again and lost 3 winnable SEC games in a row. I think this is truth.

For the overall though, those bad losses in Nov/Dec hurt, I'm not saying they're irrelevant. I just truly envision if selection was today, the committee would focus more on the Bama loss and @UT, @Ark blowout losses as a reason to keep LSU out than they would the losses earlier in the season. Just IMO.
This post was edited on 3/3/16 at 10:50 am
Posted by drizztiger
Deal With it!
Member since Mar 2007
44706 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 10:50 am to
quote:

Watch us beat Kentucky and one in done in SECT, then get another 9 seed like last year...

I'd take it.
Posted by pellietigersaint
Tiger Stadium
Member since Aug 2005
19043 posts
Posted on 3/3/16 at 10:52 am to
quote:

For the overall though, those bad losses in Nov/Dec hurt, I'm not saying they're irrelevant. I just truly envision if selection was today, the committee would focus more on the Bama loss and @UT, @Ark blowout losses as a reason to keep LSU out than they would the losses earlier in the season. Just IMO.



I agree with this
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