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ell_13
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
I'm not trying to hurt your feelings. I'm being honest.

By don't care I mean that I don't care what numbers are for individuals and what numbers are for the group at this point. We go over this every year. Very little makes sense.
quote:

Slaughters, and Watson's power grade would be at the college level 20-80
Considering Slaughter can get in exit velocity close to 110, I'd have him at a 75 for college. Only the Diechmann's and Rooker's of the world stay above that consistently. They're in the top 3% and deserve 80s if we're only talking college players. I'd put Watson at a 70. He already had amazing batspeed as a freshman so it's kinda of like his speed where it's already close to max for his size. I'd expect him at close to 9 HRs like last year maybe a couple more but not a huge jump like I'm sure people are expecting. Cabrera is a 65. Again, he's in the low 100s but more consistently than anyone else (at least through most of the fall). He doesn't hit the hardest ball but no one hit harder balls more frequently than him. And he's a true gap guy where he's hitting line drives that just don't seem to die.


Adam4848
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
Fair enough no hard feelings, it's just baseball

I think Watson can get to about 13-14 this year, he's obviously not going to see the pitches he did last year but sitting in front of Duplantis doesn't hurt his case.

Slaughter it's a complete unknown for me personally, if he stays in the lineup he could put up 12-15 but then again how big of a jump will he make this year...it's completely mental for him. He has the strongest swing out of anyone on the team like you said.

Cabrera anywhere in that 8-10 would be fantastic because he's going to be a doubles machine.

Edit: I think Bryce will get anywhere from 7-9 homeruns also. Feduccia and Smith maaaay put up another 6-8. Outside of that there's not a ton of power on this team which is ok because they hit for average.
This post was edited on 2/6 at 3:01 pm


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ell_13
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
quote:

It is a factor. What if two guys average 105, but one averages a 30 degree angle and the other averages -5 degrees? That’s an exaggeration, but it makes the point.
I'm looking at it like this: Power means extra base hits. You will NOT reach an exit velocity above 100 on a grounder in the dirt surrounding the plate. You will NOT reach an exit velocity above 100 on a pop fly. So spare me the angle crap because it is already factored in to that speed off the bat. The angle of the pitch is already in the +2 to +14 range with the angle of the bat being up as well to square it up correctly (and more often; thanks Ted Williams).

ETA: For Project, I know what you meant by Schimpf. Always going up there to try and lift the ball. A 97 mph exist speed at the correct angle can get a ball out down the lines. So you can "miss" a pitch and still get it out. So Schimpf (and many more these days) are playing those numbers where outfielders are faster than ever and "moneyball" has lead to shifts. With extra base hits harder to come by, the new thinking has gone from "hit it where they aint" to "hit it where they can't go".
This post was edited on 2/6 at 3:12 pm


ProjectP2294
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
D1 Baseball just released an analytics driven rating of college hitters ($): LINK

I haven't read it yet, but will dive into it when I get home.


ell_13
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
Perfect timing.

No pun intended for KR.


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ell_13
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions


ProjectP2294
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
some people will balk at BABIP being included as a skill metric rather than a luck metric.

But evidence point to high BABIPs relative to peers can be skill related in even the lower levels of the minors. So it makes sense to see it as one for college too (or JUCO as I used to cite it for Coomes when he was blowing up the box scores at LSUE).

It's not a luck metric until everyone you're playing against are the best in the world at what they do.

I would guess that high exit velocities would correlate positively to high BABIPs in college. Even when you consider that HRs don't count towards BABIP.


ell_13
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
quote:

I would guess that high exit velocities would correlate positively to high BABIPs in college.
Even more so since half the scorers don’t know what an error is.


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Lester Earl
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
quote:

Slaughter is probably more likely to move back to 1st than to the OF because the need would be there more and we already know he's a very good defender there. Though Bryce could be back for his 5th year, which could push Slaughter to the OF if Hughes bat develops or Bianco comes in an tears the cover off the bal


Isn’t slaughter already like 24? He seemingly could leave after this year, if I recall correctly he is a draft eligible soph


ell_13
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
He’s not that old but yeah, he’s eligible to leave. Watson and Hess as well.


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MorbidTheClown
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
#Abra-Cabrera


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F Secunda8
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Member since Mar 2017
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
Who’s expected to lead off? Is there a lineup projected anywhere?


ell_13
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
quote:

Who’s expected to lead off? Is there a lineup projected anywhere?
Smith.

Smith
Watson/Duplantis
Dupltantis/Watson
Feduccia
Bryce
Cabrera
Slaughter
Beau/Webre
Broussard


Adam4848
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Member since Apr 2006
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
^^ what ell posted


ell_13
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
PM will go with Watson then Duplantis, but I like it better the other way around.


Adam4848
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
LSU has too many two and three hole hitters this year, not a bad thing.


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Swain
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Member since Aug 2016
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
Came to ask this very question. Has CPM given a reason for Watson/Duplantis rather than the Duplantis/Watson?

Seems that Duplantis having better bat control, likely being a better bunter, and less power would lend to him being a better 2 hole hitter.


ProjectP2294
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re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
quote:

likely being a better bunter


In 2018 this should never be a consideration when constructing a line up. We don't play in California or Japan. The Sac Bunt is a losing strategy.

The best hitter on the team should hit 2nd, but since Cabrera (you're welcome ell) will be hitting 6th, the next most logical option would be Watson.

My personal 1-4 would be Smith, Cabrera, Watson, Feduccia. Duplantis has done nothing to deserve to be dropped down though, and to this point Cabrera hasn't had an opportunity to prove he should be hitting second, so it's not a big deal to keep Duplantis hitting 2nd or 3rd.


Adam4848
LSU Fan
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Member since Apr 2006
10445 posts

re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
quote:

My personal 1-4 would be Smith, Cabrera, Watson, Feduccia. Duplantis has done nothing to deserve to be dropped down though, and to this point Cabrera hasn't had an opportunity to prove he should be hitting second, so it's not a big deal to keep Duplantis hitting 2nd or 3rd.


Agreed. I think he's leaving Duplantis at 3 because of the confidence he has in his bat control. If Cabrera has a good year and Webre is able to breakout the lineup will be very very good.


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Swain
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2016
258 posts

re: Baseball Preview: 2018 Edition Feb 10th - Pro Prospects and SEC Predictions
Ok assuming that Cabrera won't be in the top 4 (for the forseeable future), I'm still wondering what makes Watson a better 2 hole candidate than Duplantis. In my mind, Duplantis is a more proven and "better hitter", albeit with less power.

Even if you neglect sac bunts, I would think Duplantis seems a much better hit and run threat than Watson?

Its a good problem to have. I guess I just prefer Duplantis/Watson.
This post was edited on 2/7 at 5:09 pm


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