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re: After 10 games, some interesting LSU baseball statistics

Posted on 3/3/13 at 12:52 pm to
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 12:52 pm to
quote:

I'm not a mathematician, so feel free to pull out stats you think will prove me wrong, but I won't give a shite.


This sounds like something I would expect from an Arkie fan.
Posted by ProjectP2294
West St. Louis County
Member since May 2007
79125 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 12:55 pm to
I'm saying that stats, even in baseball, can't quantify everything.
Posted by AstroTiger
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Oct 2007
22967 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 12:56 pm to
STATS!
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 12:58 pm to
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
51411 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 12:58 pm to
quote:

Rhymes also leads the team in on base % at .511.


Yet he's not hitting in the 1 or 2 hole. I hate this bias that speed determines the lead off guy not OBP.
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 1:00 pm to
Speed should definitely play a role, but I agree with you.
Posted by ProjectP2294
West St. Louis County
Member since May 2007
79125 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 1:02 pm to
I'd like to see Rhymes in the 2 spot with Laird at 9.
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
51411 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 1:03 pm to
Also late innings isn't the only time you can get clutch hits, its a bias. Take for instance leading off a inning by getting on base is "clutch" because that means your chances of scoring go up dramatically. A hit that opens up a lead to 3-4 runs even if its early in a game can be clutch. This is the same bias that leads to improper use of your best relief pitcher by limiting him to the 9th inning.
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
51411 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 1:06 pm to
quote:

Speed should definitely play a role, but I agree with you.


your lineup should be determined by OBP and as your move farther away from 1, slugging gains value. Speed plays some part but its very minor. Raph's OBP is and will be so much higher than anyone eles that he should be lead off wihthout a doubt, his lack of power makes this even more evident. Its been proven, this isn't just my opinion.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
135059 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 1:06 pm to
quote:

But timely hits, IMO, would be w/ RISP, w/ two outs, to tie a game, to take a lead (especially in late innings).

I don't see any of those stats available on the LSU stats page so I can't determine if you're right or not about Bregman.

I know he has had two 9th inning, game winning RBI's that I remember but one of those (this past Friday night vs. Brown) was a sac fly so that can't be called a timely "hit."

With the stats available I'd have to say Katz leads the team in getting RBI producing (timely) hits since he has 14 RBI's (Bregmam has 11) although Bregman has more hits than Katz, 15 to Katz's 12.
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
51411 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 1:10 pm to
clutch hitters are a myth but good pinch hitters are real. IMO I think Alex Edward is a good pinch hitter, wish I could see those stats.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
135059 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 1:12 pm to
quote:

Rhymes also leads the team in on base % at .511.


Yet he's not hitting in the 1 or 2 hole. I hate this bias that speed determines the lead off guy not OBP.


It's difficult to compare because Rhymes OBP may be elevated by having Katz protecting Raph in the batting order. Pitchers are reluctant to pitch around Raph with Katz following him in the order.
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
51411 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

It's difficult to compare because Rhymes OBP may be elevated by having Katz protecting Raph in the batting order. Pitchers are reluctant to pitch around Raph with Katz following him in the order.


I'd argue the pitchers aren't good enough to do this at the college level, on a whole. Not to mention "lineup protection" over a season has proven to be almost non existent unless you have a bonds type caliber player and a sub average guy batting below him.


Also with just all the AB's he has, Id say its just because he is a great hitter who can draw walks.
This post was edited on 3/3/13 at 1:16 pm
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 1:16 pm to
Would not being "pitched around" raise a hitter's OBP rather than lowering it?

Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177644 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 1:17 pm to
quote:

pitchers aren't good enough to do this at the college level, on a whole.

Part of the reason why I hate sac bunting every single time we get a lead off walk.
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 1:20 pm to
One day I'm going to do a thread showing how silly sac bunting is with a man on 1st and 0 out when your next 3 or 4 batters all have an OBP over .400.
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
291085 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 1:21 pm to
biggest differences to me, are

- no easy outs in our lineup compared to last year, we have 3-4

- LH/RH balance

-speed


pitching has been as expected. Though i could prob strike out 8 or 9 guys vs brown
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 1:22 pm to
Arkie's on the ropes again...
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
291085 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 1:26 pm to
quote:

Yet he's not hitting in the 1 or 2 hole. I hate this bias that speed determines the lead off guy not OBP.



you're looking at it in a vacuum though.


consider he had 100 hits last year in 60 something games, and 16 already this year though 10 games, and I think that is a guy i want hitting in the 3 or 4 spot in my lineup.

especially when you have what looks to be capable 1-2 hitters in sciambra and laird.

Laird has a 465 OBP ands sciambra is at 488
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
51411 posts
Posted on 3/3/13 at 2:17 pm to
quote:

consider he had 100 hits last year in 60 something games, and 16 already this year though 10 games, and I think that is a guy i want hitting in the 3 or 4 spot in my lineup.


I know its counter intuitive, but without power you want a guy with this OBP at the top of the lineup. You want to get guys who get on base the most at the top of the lineup. I know he has 4 doubles but is isolated power was terrible last year. You need power to knock him in. Not to mention he's proven his OBP is sutainable, well laird and sciambra haven't, so it would be reasonable to think they won't keep it above .450.

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