re: Adjusted qb stats (to account for drops)

With out seeing the all 22 angle on plays its hard to assess the qb play especially daniels, on plays where he ran they obviously weren't drawn up that way, so did he go through his progressions and not see anybody open so he ran, did he make one read and run? How many of those runs would have been sacks if the dline was actually trying to hit the qb.
I'm also curious to see if op thinks the throw at the 31 min mark of the full spring game was a catch.

Could've gone either way
The throw is high, but if Lacy was at full health he catches that
50/50

quote:

---

Could've gone either way
The throw is high, but if Lacy was at full health he catches that
50/50

---

You are the OP. Did you count it as a drop or no? Because 50/50 balls are not "drops".

Of course
Thanks for the support!

Let’s not act like the long TD that Brennan threw wasn’t way off the mark. Was tipped by a diving DB and landed in the receivers hands

quote:

---

Ok. I’m reading through this thread. This is beyond stupid.

Hey, let’s look at misses and make it to where each basketball shot that missed, is actually counted as a make because it was an easy shot, so it should have went in.

Hey, let’s count each strike out as a hit, cause it looked like an easy pitch to hit. Should have been a hit.

---

Adjusted completion percentage is a real metric. I’m kind of amazed (though maybe I shouldn’t be) how many folks here seem to have never heard of it.

PFF and SECStatCat are two sources I’m aware of that chart adjusted completion percentage. Typically you add drops to the numerator and you remove throwaways, spikes, and QB hits/batted balls from the denominator.

It’s not a bad stat in general to quickly understand how much other players’ mistakes are affecting completion percentage. Drops can be on the WR. Throwaways can be on the WR or a result of getting outschemed. QB hits and batted balls can be on the OL. Spikes are called plays and shouldn’t really be counted in completion percentage anyway.

Of course, all of these (except spikes) can be on the QB as well. Some QBs will have more drops than others due to ball placement, lack of touch, or inconsistency. Some QBs get hit more than others due to poor pocket awareness. Some QBs have more batted balls than others due to poor vision or poor adjustment to defenders in the way. Adjusted completion percentage can tell you that a QB is being affected by drops, batted balls, or throwaways - but it doesn’t tell you why that is happening.

One thing to note about adjusted completion percentage is that “drops” are an extremely subjective statistic. They have to be very well defined and the person charting them has to be consistent. Generally speaking, drops should not be counted when in doubt - meaning if the ball is (for example) below stomach level, behind the receiver’s body, etc.

The other issue here is that I don’t think we really have a large enough sample size to read too far into adjusted completion percentage. When you’re looking at multiple games’ worth of data, QBs tend to regress to the mean and the impact of subjectivity gets reduced as the sample size increases. I don’t know that I’m reading too far into it one way or another based on a handful of passes from each QB in the spring game.

quote:

---

I just made this mainly for those who were claiming Daniels stunk the place up

---

Daniels doesn’t stink by any measure. He’s just inconsistent due to bad throwing mechanics. You can tell he’s never really been coached to be a passing QB. His footwork and release are all over the place. The ASU staff really didn’t do a good job with him at all.

You gave Daniels way too much leeway in your adjustments. He had 2 or 3 very inaccurate passes yesterday that were a product of his mechanics not being fully developed. Thankfully, I think this staff is going to help him get that cleaned up.

Daniels is already good just on his pure athleticism. If he can clean the mechanics up and throw a consistently clean ball, he could be elite.

I think that it was far enough off that any decent SEC defensive back doesn’t allow that to fall to the receiver.

As far as daniels accuracy I completely agree. It wasn’t always great either. My point would be since the whole argument is brennans incredible arm makes up for him not being able to move. Nuss and daniels give you at least that same accuracy and more options with mobility

quote:

---

I just don't see how you can say that Daniels has the same accuracy as Brennan. Nuss definitely showed that in this game, Daniels no way.

---

He doesn’t. The game film from ASU is a lot more telling than this one spring game on this point. However, his issues are all fixable with the right staff working with him and the right attitude on his part.

I don’t know if it will be this season or later, but I think Daniels will improve as a passer and start for us at some point.

Glad I could help