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17 teams for 12 spots is how I see it
Posted on 10/19/26 at 9:31 am
Posted on 10/19/26 at 9:31 am
I’m writing off Arizona, Northwestern, SMU, Wake, Missouri, Houston, and then:
Florida (UGA, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and FSU rivalry game)
Texas (Ole Miss, @Mizzou, @LSU)
That Kentucky loss really stings. If we were rolling into that stretch of Bama, Texas, and Tenn with only 1 loss we could’ve 100% afforded one loss. Still probably can afford to drop one of those 3 anyway. Gonna be a fun last month and a half of the season.
Florida (UGA, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and FSU rivalry game)
Texas (Ole Miss, @Mizzou, @LSU)
That Kentucky loss really stings. If we were rolling into that stretch of Bama, Texas, and Tenn with only 1 loss we could’ve 100% afforded one loss. Still probably can afford to drop one of those 3 anyway. Gonna be a fun last month and a half of the season.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 9:48 am to UnluckyTiger
Really need to win this game. They need to play well and play disciplined. They are going to run their QB early and often and they have a very good defensive unit. Its going to be tough.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 9:51 am to UnluckyTiger
You are writing off Florida and Texas? Did I understand that right?
Posted on 10/19/26 at 9:51 am to IM_4_LSU
Yep. Must win.
USC has UCLA and Indiana left
Tenn has us and Kentucky (losing to SC this weekend would be huge)
Ole Miss has Georgia and Texas, etc.
Gonna be a wild ride the rest of the way.
USC has UCLA and Indiana left
Tenn has us and Kentucky (losing to SC this weekend would be huge)
Ole Miss has Georgia and Texas, etc.
Gonna be a wild ride the rest of the way.
This post was edited on 10/19/26 at 10:20 am
Posted on 10/19/26 at 9:52 am to UnluckyTiger
11 spots. The small school are guaranteed a spot.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 9:52 am to moneyg
Yeah, I am. Have you watched Arch play? They’re losing at least one more and I’m saying it’ll be when they come to Baton Rouge.
Florida still has Kentucky, Oklahoma, Georgia, and FSU. They’re not getting through that undefeated.
Florida still has Kentucky, Oklahoma, Georgia, and FSU. They’re not getting through that undefeated.
This post was edited on 10/19/26 at 9:57 am
Posted on 10/19/26 at 9:54 am to LSUDonMCO
I’m accounting for that with Boise.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 9:57 am to UnluckyTiger
quote:
Yeah, I am. Have you watched Arch play? They’re losing at least one more.
Arch is about to get benched
Posted on 10/19/26 at 9:58 am to UnluckyTiger
quote:
They’re losing at least one more.
Could say the same about LSU
#7 Ole Miss (5-1)
#11 Tennessee (6-1)
#12 Kentucky (6-1)
#13 Bama (5-2)
#18 LSU (5-2)
#19 Texas (4-2)
#20 Florida (5-2)
Unfortunately, only 2-3 of these teams will make it out.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:01 am to JimTiger72
Yea you could which is why I said we still may have a shot even with one more. Let’s say we lose to Bama but win every other game. We would jump Texas and basically eliminate them. Tennessee would be tricky with 1 less loss at that point but can see them losing this weekend or against Kentucky.
We’d have a better resume than Florida unless they beat Georgia, so they wouldn’t jump us.
The tricky one (and I bet it comes down to this) is Ole Miss. If they finish with 3 losses (Texas and Georgia), they’re going to be right there with us. Kentucky is the real wild card here.
We need to be big USC fans this weekend and cheer for an Indiana loss at Michigan and Iowa to drop at least one more which with that sad offense is always a possibility any weekend.
We’d have a better resume than Florida unless they beat Georgia, so they wouldn’t jump us.
The tricky one (and I bet it comes down to this) is Ole Miss. If they finish with 3 losses (Texas and Georgia), they’re going to be right there with us. Kentucky is the real wild card here.
We need to be big USC fans this weekend and cheer for an Indiana loss at Michigan and Iowa to drop at least one more which with that sad offense is always a possibility any weekend.
This post was edited on 10/19/26 at 10:04 am
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:03 am to UnluckyTiger
quote:
Yeah, I am. Have you watched Arch play? They’re losing at least one more.
Florida still has Kentucky, Oklahoma, Georgia, and FSU. They’re not getting through that undefeated.
I just don't follow that logic if you are including LSU.
LSU has Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee. That's every bit as tough as the other two.
I do agree that it's unlikely for any of those teams (Texas, Florida, or LSU) to run the gauntlet.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:13 am to moneyg
Texas and Tennessee don’t have offenses. I trust Baker to bottle them up. The whole point of this thread though is to show how very much alive we are even with one more potential loss. And how much of a kick in the balls that loss to Kentucky was 
Saturday was such a great day for us.
Saturday was such a great day for us. This post was edited on 10/19/26 at 10:14 am
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:56 am to UnluckyTiger
Don't forget that it's actually 11 spots because of G6 Champ, and also remember the rule instituted that Notre Dame is guaranteed a place in the playoff if they are in the top 12.
So, let's say ND is #12, LSU is #10, the Big 12 Champ is #15, and the G6 Champ is #18. G6 team would get the 12 seed, Big 12 Champ gets 11 seed, Notre Dame gets the 10 seed, and LSU plays in the Citrus Bowl. The only way to guarantee your at-large bid is being in the top 9 teams.
So, let's say ND is #12, LSU is #10, the Big 12 Champ is #15, and the G6 Champ is #18. G6 team would get the 12 seed, Big 12 Champ gets 11 seed, Notre Dame gets the 10 seed, and LSU plays in the Citrus Bowl. The only way to guarantee your at-large bid is being in the top 9 teams.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:57 am to UnluckyTiger
If we win out we’re in. If we don’t, we’re out.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 11:00 am to UnluckyTiger
I tried looking ahead at other schedules, it’s just way too early and too much chaos has and will continue to happen.
I concluded that LSU has to win out to make the playoff. A 3 loss team will get in this year, but the Committee won’t allow it to be LSU. Quite possible the SEC only gets 4 in.
- Kentucky, Georgia, Ole Miss can continue to win. All 1 loss, but own H2H over LSU. Or 1 loss UGA - they’re safe over LSU with 2 losses.
- Missouri and Florida (2 losses) need to lose one more to avoid a Committee decision between them and 2 loss LSU. Both still have to play UGA.
- Auburn, Bama, Texas, and Tennessee will take care of themselves by losing to LSU. LSU holds a decisive H2H over State.
TL;DR: As of today, LSU has a decent chance of winning out and will be in with 2 losses - 99% confident of this. Worst case scenario is there could be 5 SEC teams with 2 losses, but very unlikely.
It’s way too early to do schedule gymnastics to analyze a 3 loss scenario, but you can’t put it in the Committee’s hands.
I concluded that LSU has to win out to make the playoff. A 3 loss team will get in this year, but the Committee won’t allow it to be LSU. Quite possible the SEC only gets 4 in.
- Kentucky, Georgia, Ole Miss can continue to win. All 1 loss, but own H2H over LSU. Or 1 loss UGA - they’re safe over LSU with 2 losses.
- Missouri and Florida (2 losses) need to lose one more to avoid a Committee decision between them and 2 loss LSU. Both still have to play UGA.
- Auburn, Bama, Texas, and Tennessee will take care of themselves by losing to LSU. LSU holds a decisive H2H over State.
TL;DR: As of today, LSU has a decent chance of winning out and will be in with 2 losses - 99% confident of this. Worst case scenario is there could be 5 SEC teams with 2 losses, but very unlikely.
It’s way too early to do schedule gymnastics to analyze a 3 loss scenario, but you can’t put it in the Committee’s hands.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 11:02 am to IM_4_LSU
For some reason unbeknown to man the committee has an agreement to include notre dame if they finish ranked in the top 12.
I guess i didn’t have a vote on that one.
What would they have done otherwise if the committee said no? Pout and cry?
So the group of five and group if one (notre dame) have spots.
Snd despite what they say, they will select teams with the best records ignoring strength of schedule just like the polls do.
I guess i didn’t have a vote on that one.
What would they have done otherwise if the committee said no? Pout and cry?
So the group of five and group if one (notre dame) have spots.
Snd despite what they say, they will select teams with the best records ignoring strength of schedule just like the polls do.
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