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re: Will this be our worst recruiting class of the millennium ?
Posted on 11/7/17 at 2:10 am to rmnldr
Posted on 11/7/17 at 2:10 am to rmnldr
quote:
rmnldr
Will this be our worst recruiting class of the millennium ?
The class isn’t complete but they need some dudes on the LOS to really fill out this class. I think Hines and Rosenthal switch to OL and that they’ll at Traore so they should be good there.
They direly need some DL. Getting Michael Thompson would be huge but Dominic Livingston is good as well. Flipping Bobby Brown from A&M would be sweet.
Next to QB, this dynamic and these players, are most important right now, as outlined by the poster.
0
Posted on 11/7/17 at 4:40 am to Summer of George
quote:
Summer of George
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2010
3970 posts
re: Will this be our worst recruiting class of the millennium ?Posted on 11/3/17 at 10:03 pm to Mrs. Amaro
I thought O would be able to pull in 5 star studs all day. Isn't that his best attribute? If he can't do that or beat Bama we might as well have Les.
The problem with Les, if any, was not recruiting in general, it was coaching, specifically on offense, and then recruiting in specified areas of need (or failure to do so). Les recruited plenty of 5 star players, but had problems in evaluations of talent, especially at QB and DL.
Orgeron is a good recruiter, there is no doubt about that, but he is a better talent evaluator and his coaching staff is an upgrade over the end of the Miles era.
Posted on 11/7/17 at 4:56 am to FLObserver
quote:
FLObserver
LSU Fan
Jacksonville
Member since Nov 2005
4754 posts
re: Will this be our worst recruiting class of the millennium ?Posted on 11/6/17 at 6:10 pm to banthony1
quote:
*4 star
I used his rivals.com 5 rating. My point being he was better than anything LSU has had in a long long time at QB.
If stars and ratings and rankings are all that matter, Brandon Harris was ranked almost as highly as was the NC winning clemson QB, yet, he failed to live up to his rating/ranking. Anthony Jennings beat out a top10 ranked QB in his same class to win the starting job at LSU, and the Top10 QB transferred away. This sort of over-rating occurs more often than not. And the flip side of that is many of the best QBs are/were highly underrated coming out of HS.
Talent evaluation, accurate talent evaluation, is more important than reliance on media guys' opinions, even collective opinions. Stars are media guys' opinions. It might as well be our own opinions...
This post was edited on 11/7/17 at 6:14 am
Posted on 11/7/17 at 5:24 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
thunderbird1100
Will this be our worst recruiting class of the millennium ?
quote:
I was just pointing out that for the 2014 class it is a fallacy to think that on a percentage basis that the 4&5 stars were more productive for LSU than the 3 stars. It's a fact that they weren't.
Again, this is what we call a microcosm, a single case, not something over time. OVER TIME the NFL and practically every measure you can come up with shows 5 and 4 stars absolutely have higher hit rates than 3 stars. Do yo usee teams full of 3 stars winning national titles? Do you see teams full of 3 stars putting 7, 8, 9 players a year into the NFL?
quote:
LSU hasn't necessarily followed suit with the NFL. LSU has a lot of transfers including 5-stars Clifton Garrett from 2014, Tyron Johnson from 2015 and Saivion Smith from 2016. That's just the 5-stars, there was a lot more attrition among the 4's. In 2015 LSU had 2 5-stars total that signed, one left. I don't think players can transfer in the NFL.
Want to guess how many players we'd be putting in the NFL if we primarily just got 3-stars vs. 4's and 5's? I'll give you a hint - not nearly as much as we are now.
Break down our players drafted by the NFL and you'll see exactly what I'm talking about. 7 of 8 last year drafted were 4 or 5 stars. 3 of 5 in 2016. 3 of 4 in 2015. 8 of 9 in 2014.
So 21 of our 26 draftees the last 4 drafts have been a 4 or 5 star. That's 81% of our draftees being a 4 or 5 star. We have never had 81% or close to that of the entire team made up of 4 or 5 stars compared to 3 stars. This season it's 62% of the team made up of 4 or 5 stars. Side note, Alabama by comparison has 82% of their team made up of 4 and 5 stars, which is sick, and understandable how they are railroading everyone they play. They just have way more talent.
quote:
Again, for the NFL I totally agree.
...soooo, why would getting more 3 stars be better again? Best players go to the NFL, in case you didn't know.
Because we want a better TEAM that performs better, wins Championships.
3 star players on average stay with the team longer - 4 or 5 years, and so the team players play together longer, more cohesively, and can play better as 4th year or 5th year guys than 5 star players can as year 1 or 2 guys. A long term fully developed 3 star player can exceed ability of a partially developed 5* that has 1.5 good years then jumps to the NFL leaving a big hole to fill, ... so the theory goes.
Ideally, you take smaller classes, being more selective, chosing players less likely to result in premature attrition and who will stay long enough to contribute. Several teams are following this approach, such as Clemson and Stanford.
Posted on 11/7/17 at 5:30 am to cfmalloy
Exactly. The ratings seem to be off a lot at the QB position. It's just a completely different beast. I can think of several 4 and 5 star QBs recruiting just in the SEC that never panned out or transferred.
This post was edited on 11/7/17 at 5:31 am
Posted on 11/7/17 at 8:19 am to LSU Patrick
quote:A non-expert theory I would put forth on that is the lean towards physical build while the [understandable] inability to rank based on decision-making and ability to process visual info quickly which probably is more of a deciding factor in great success vs. being average.
Exactly. The ratings seem to be off a lot at the QB position. It's just a completely different beast. I can think of several 4 and 5 star QBs recruiting just in the SEC that never panned out or transferred.
It is easier to judge, for example, a RB's vision. But the current "mass rankings" is still going to weigh on physical stature and measurable quite a bit.
Just have to be aware of it and account for it. Ain't nothing that can be done about it other than the sites getting first-hand info from every camp and game for almost every player.
Posted on 11/7/17 at 8:32 am to cfmalloy
quote:
Because we want a better TEAM that performs better, wins Championships.
3 star players on average stay with the team longer - 4 or 5 years, and so the team players play together longer, more cohesively, and can play better as 4th year or 5th year guys than 5 star players can as year 1 or 2 guys. A long term fully developed 3 star player can exceed ability of a partially developed 5* that has 1.5 good years then jumps to the NFL leaving a big hole to fill, ... so the theory goes.
Ideally, you take smaller classes, being more selective, chosing players less likely to result in premature attrition and who will stay long enough to contribute.
Posted on 11/7/17 at 8:48 am to rmnldr
quote:
Reason 4638 why recruiting rankings are typically worthless
Comments like this show me someone that doesn’t understand what these things mean or basic probability
This post was edited on 11/7/17 at 8:49 am
Posted on 11/7/17 at 8:52 am to rmnldr
quote:
Reason 4638 why recruiting rankings are typically worthless
Yeah Alabama certainly hasn't benefited from like 8 straight #1 classes.
Posted on 11/7/17 at 9:03 am to LSU Patrick
quote:
The ratings seem to be off a lot at the QB position. It's just a completely different beast. I can think of several 4 and 5 star QBs recruiting just in the SEC that never panned out or transferred.
It’s not that the rankings are off or the services don’t properly evaluate its that you guys are using 20/20 hindsight and expect the rankings to be near perfect. It’s not an exact science. It’s been proven and said on these sites a billion times. A much higher percentage of 5* pan out than 4* which pan out higher per pod the than 3 etc, etc
Posted on 11/7/17 at 9:05 am to H-Town Tiger
quote:
Comments like this show me someone that doesn’t understand what these things mean or basic probability
The recruiting services hit on like 50% of five stars it seems. There’s too many Clifton Garretts and Tony Browns that get rated very highly while a Greedy Williams or a Christian LaCouture slips by as a low 4 star. I’ve completely given up on star power. Go look at Alabama’s star power on their OL and see how they played on Saturday.
quote:
Yeah Alabama certainly hasn't benefited from like 8 straight #1 classes.
And they’re still not invincible. The difference between a 5 star that goes to Alabama and a 4 star that goes to Clemson or wherever is typically negligible. We’ve seen recruiting services actually bump up a kids rating simply because a certain school offers him or he signs with a school instead of actually evaluating his film and traits and what kind of guy he is.
This post was edited on 11/7/17 at 9:09 am
Posted on 11/7/17 at 9:15 am to rmnldr
quote:
And they’re still not invincible.
Let's think about this for a second.
They have won 35 of their past 36 games. That's a 97.2% win percentage over that time, in case you're doing the math.
Their ONLY loss - a (literally) last second play in the national title game to the best QB in CFB and a team also chock full of talent. A game which was lost because it was whoever had the ball last, was going to win. Remember, Alabama took the lead with only 2 minutes to go. Then lost it with 1 second left.
This season? Well, nobody has finished within 7 points or less of them yet. They are 9-0 and have made it look easy.
So a team that's not "invincible" is winning well over 95% of their games recently, and their only loss was in a national title game on a last second play to the best QB in CFB.
And they haven't clearly massively benefited from destroying almost every team in recruiting the last half decade+?
Yeah, you roll with that.
This post was edited on 11/7/17 at 9:53 am
Posted on 11/7/17 at 9:34 am to rmnldr
quote:
The recruiting services hit on like 50% of five stars it seems
You just further proved my point
ETA: I totally missed this
quote:
Yeah Alabama certainly hasn't benefited from like 8 straight #1 classes. And they’re still not invincible.
Wow, just wow you really don’t get it
This post was edited on 11/7/17 at 9:40 am
Posted on 11/7/17 at 9:44 am to thunderbird1100
I might be off by a win or 2 but off the top of my head they are something like 122-13 the last 10 years and 3 of the loses were in 1 season 2010. They’ve been ranked #1 at some point the last 10 years in a row, the previous record was 7. But their not perfect so the rankings don’t matter
This post was edited on 11/7/17 at 10:16 am
Posted on 11/8/17 at 12:52 am to H-Town Tiger
All of this was very enlightening, informative, and entertaining.
With that said, the Gumps can eat my butthole.
With that said, the Gumps can eat my butthole.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 6:40 am to ForLSU56
quote:
Looks like they've done okay missing the top ten now and then
Clemson recruiting rank
2013 14th
2014 13th
2015 4th
2016 6th
2017 22nd
Because they had Deshaun Watson. Give us Watson, and we beat Bama a couple of times and maybe win a natty. Watch how Clemson does moving forward. They play a very easy schedule, so they will post plenty of 10 win seasons, but don't expect another championship game appearance. Their best win this year is Auburn who was also beaten by a mediocre LSU team.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 6:50 am to cfmalloy
quote:
Orgeron is a good recruiter, there is no doubt about that, but he is a better talent evaluator and his coaching staff is an upgrade over the end of the Miles era.
All Miles had to do was hire a spread OC that was a halfway decent QB coach, and let him coach. That's it. At first I really didn't like the idea of wanting him fired until the late 2015 season. I just finally saw a man that would go down with his way of doing things no matter what.
IMO Miles didn't miss on DL talent, but his DL coach did. Getting Ed as the DL coach was incredible, also lucking up on getting Aranda. Getting and keeping a competent WR coach along with getting a spread OC and staying out of his way, would have took him all the way til his contract was up with at least one more national championship under his belt.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 1:10 pm to thunderbird1100
You also have to look at the process Nick Saban has created at Alabama. 5-star recruits do matter, but the process/system he created at Alabama is undeniable. Saban recruits size and skill set vs raw talent (LSU), that why he's able plug-in and switch out different players with no significant drop-off. They also do a great job in player development.
Saban can enter almost any power 5 program and turn it into a powerhouse in 1 to 2 years (LSU & Mich St). THAT'S NOT TALENT, THAT'S THE PROCESS. Also why his players don't adjust well at the next level, in particular, DBs.
Saban can enter almost any power 5 program and turn it into a powerhouse in 1 to 2 years (LSU & Mich St). THAT'S NOT TALENT, THAT'S THE PROCESS. Also why his players don't adjust well at the next level, in particular, DBs.
This post was edited on 11/8/17 at 1:14 pm
Posted on 11/8/17 at 1:29 pm to BayouBoogie
quote:
Saban can enter almost any power 5 program and turn it into a powerhouse in 1 to 2 years (LSU & Mich St). THAT'S NOT TALENT, THAT'S THE PROCESS. Also why his players don't adjust well at the next level, in particular, DBs.
I think What separates Sabans process currently is alot of these 5 star guys are willing to wait their turn.
For the most part other than the Qb spot for bama most guys ride the bench 2 years knowing they will get their chance as a junior or a senior. They know they will still get a chance at the NFL.
LSU's problem recently is that alot of our top rated recruits leave if they fill they aren't getting a chance after their freshman or soph year. That has really hurt LSU depth over the last few years. Hoping we can get that trend turned around
This post was edited on 11/8/17 at 1:30 pm
Posted on 11/8/17 at 1:38 pm to cfmalloy
quote:
Ideally, you take smaller classes, being more selective, chosing players less likely to result in premature attrition and who will stay long enough to contribute. Several teams are following this approach, such as Clemson and Stanford.
No, you stack your team up with so many great players that the backups have to stay 4 years to get playing time for the NFL. You don't pick players that have to stay because the NFL doesn't want them.
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