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Putting the old catch 22 to bed...

Posted on 7/31/18 at 7:46 am
Posted by champj3
New Orleans
Member since Feb 2010
267 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 7:46 am
Meaning what comes first, great recruiting or winning on the field?

Several examples prove its winning in February is the cause of winning in the subsequent fall.

Saban in 2001 (best LSU class since the 80’s)
Saban 2008 (best bama class since 90’s)
Myer 2006 (best Florida class since 90’s)
Smart 2017 (best Georgia class ever)

In each of these examples, none of these coaches had won anything in their first year, yet still dominated in recruiting. This Will Wade type of overhaul of a program is what is needed to compete for championships.

Simply put if LSU is resigned to saying that they can’t beat Alabama, Georgia in February, they will never beat them in the fall!

Stop the narrative of LSU needs to win on the field to out-recruit these teams. Never has been true and never will be!!!!
Posted by bugafor6
Member since Feb 2016
4200 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 7:57 am to
You can add Texas last season to the list. 6 losses yet they landed the #3, class
Posted by champj3
New Orleans
Member since Feb 2010
267 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 7:58 am to
Agreed. I’m sure there are more examples.
Posted by CalTiger53
California
Member since Oct 2011
9037 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 8:03 am to
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that you have to win in Feb to win on the field. Saba's career says it all.
This post was edited on 7/31/18 at 12:47 pm
Posted by TheHat7
Member since Oct 2015
7189 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 8:10 am to
Winning does effect recruiting. Saban & Kirby we’re known up and comers. O needs to prove he is as well. This year will help that if he can win
Posted by Alt26
Member since Mar 2010
28363 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 8:36 am to
quote:

Stop the narrative of LSU needs to win on the field to out-recruit these teams. Never has been true and never will be!!!!


Generally I'd be inclined to agree, but I think the situation with Ogeron as the HC is different. The biggest "negative" other coaches can use against O is that he's had little to tangible success as a coach. Opposing coaches can say "don't go play for that guy. He's never won anything and you never will either." To combat that narrative O needs to win. Otherwise, that narrative is going to perpetuate. Even Smart, though no experience as a HC, could point to a successful long time stint as a DC. O hasn't even been a coordinator.

While not trying to get political, all O really has to sell right now is "hope and change". Back to back winning seasons at LSU, including wins over the current SEC "powerhouses" (Bama, UGA) would go a LONG way to changing the national perception of O and combating the other coaches' recruiting pitches against LSU

Posted by champj3
New Orleans
Member since Feb 2010
267 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 8:45 am to
Don’t get me wrong winning helps. However, the proof of examples from great coaches is they control their own destinies regardless of win/loss from season before.

If Orgeron can hold the current class together and close strong with nothing but 4 & 5 Star big names, I predict he finally gets over the hump in 2019.
Posted by whitefoot
Franklin, TN
Member since Aug 2006
11181 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 9:04 am to
Interesting post. I don't think it's true in every case, but I think for the most part a new coach can be expected to come in and immediately recruit at a very high level.

I think Dabo might be an example where winning games in the fall has led to elite level recruiting.

I agree with ATL26 about Orgeron needing to prove himself on the field, though. There's simply too much negativity surrounding his abilities as a head coach for some recruits to look past.

I think we'll know a lot more about where we're actually at as a program as this season progresses. Orgeron has talked a big game ad now is the time to back it up with on the field results.
Posted by Alt26
Member since Mar 2010
28363 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 9:21 am to
quote:

Don’t get me wrong winning helps. However, the proof of examples from great coaches is they control their own destinies regardless of win/loss from season before.

If Orgeron can hold the current class together and close strong with nothing but 4 & 5 Star big names, I predict he finally gets over the hump in 2019.


Yeah, but I think those coaches could kind of sell the narrative that they needed a talent infusion and there was significant opportunity to get on the field early.

Plus, O is in a little be different situation in that for all intents and purposes the 2019 group will be his third "full" class, not his first.

Saban, Meyer, Smart all came in late in the recruiting process to really make too much difference in what was technically their first signing classes. For example: Saban comes in at the end of the 99 season. He has little time to do much with the 2000 class, so 2001 was really his first "full" class that he had recruited for a full year. Same with Smart. He jumps on board very late at the end of '15. Does what he can with the '16 class, but his first full group is '17.

Because he was already on LSU's staff, O had been recruiting at least some of the 2017 class for a full year or more. Once he became interim coach he continued to a larger degree. It wasn't like Saban, Meyer, Smart where they came to new schools.
Posted by Tiger on the Rag
Cattle Gap Egypt
Member since Jan 2018
6835 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 9:25 am to
You stop posting
Posted by RB10
Member since Nov 2010
43823 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 9:28 am to
quote:

You can add Texas last season to the list. 6 losses yet they landed the #3, class


This. Texas will be a good measuring stick in 2018 for this narrative.
Posted by whitefoot
Franklin, TN
Member since Aug 2006
11181 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 9:33 am to
quote:

Texas will be a good measuring stick in 2018 for this narrative.

How so? They already had 6 losses in Herman's first year and already landed the #3 class in Herman's first recruiting cycle.
Posted by RB10
Member since Nov 2010
43823 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 9:37 am to
quote:

How so? They already had 6 losses in Herman's first year and already landed the #3 class in Herman's first recruiting cycle.


I think it takes more than 1 recruiting cycle to turn around a program that had a losing record for the previous 3 years.

Hell, by definition Herman has already improved the team.
Posted by Brazos
Member since Oct 2013
20361 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 9:40 am to
Ummm I don't think O can be considered an up and comer. He's way past that age and he's already had a crack at running a program.
Posted by whitefoot
Franklin, TN
Member since Aug 2006
11181 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 9:49 am to
quote:

I think it takes more than 1 recruiting cycle to turn around a program that had a losing record for the previous 3 years.

Yeah, I agree. But I think the OP was trying to say you can recruit at an elite level right out the gate, without doing anything on the field first.
Posted by RB10
Member since Nov 2010
43823 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 9:51 am to
quote:

Yeah, I agree. But I think the OP was trying to say you can recruit at an elite level right out the gate, without doing anything on the field first.


Herman was hired in November so I don't really consider 2017's class to be his.

2018 was his first full cycle and he landed the #3 class after a 7 win season. Let's see if the results follow.
This post was edited on 7/31/18 at 9:54 am
Posted by whitefoot
Franklin, TN
Member since Aug 2006
11181 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 9:54 am to
quote:

Kirby we’re known up and comers

Kirby certainly didn't look like an up and comer his first year at Georgia. They were a 7 win team that nearly lost to Nicholls State.
Posted by RB10
Member since Nov 2010
43823 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 9:59 am to
quote:

Kirby certainly didn't look like an up and comer his first year at Georgia. They were a 7 win team that nearly lost to Nicholls State.


I don't think anyone can argue this, but he's flipped the script.

He's also the only Saban protege that seems to have learned how to truly duplicate "the process". This is a scary thought at a program like Georgia.
Posted by calitiger
Uptown New Orleans
Member since Jan 2004
2363 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 10:02 am to
First off, that is not a catch-22 situation. Secondly, as in real estate, location matters in recruiting. You have to try very hard to have a terrible recruiting class if your school is located in a talent rich state. You may have down years but even if you're losing you'll still pull in your share of talented players. There are cases where winning matters. Look at Tennessee and Nebraska. Two former powerhouses that are located in talent poor states. Winning is a necessity for schooks is their situation if they are going to attract talented recruits. Each situation is different.
Posted by tgerb8
Huntsvegas
Member since Aug 2007
5991 posts
Posted on 7/31/18 at 10:07 am to
quote:

Generally I'd be inclined to agree, but I think the situation with Ogeron as the HC is different. The biggest "negative" other coaches can use against O is that he's had little to tangible success as a coach.


It's much different with Orgeron. He doesn't bring the excitement of a somewhat unknown commodity with loads of potential like a Fleck, or Herman, or Smart.

He brings a concrete history of failure.
So I think winning is absolutely necessary in his case.

MasterCard has no problem giving you a 10k credit limit as soon as you turn 18, but youll have to wait 7 years, learn to be responsible, and prove yourself with a secured card for a while to get back to that level if you declare bankruptcy.

Right now our coach is post-bankruptcy and trying to rebuild credit. How he got this job is beyond me, but hopefully he can succeed. If not, it needs to end quickly.
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