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Need vs best available
Posted on 12/23/17 at 6:12 pm
Posted on 12/23/17 at 6:12 pm
A mantra most NFL teams have for the draft is to almost always pick the best player available (bpa) over need. Recruiting high school players is a different game than the draft because you are not picking in order with other teams, if you recruit well enough you can have all the first round picks you want. It feels like Georgia had six first round picks this year.
But now with four spots left for LSU , if you assume you have 6 or 7 players willing to come, you do have a need and bpa analysis to make.
With Surtain and Joseph, it’s a no brainer. These guys are both at a position of need for this class and both highly rated.
After that it gets harder. I would say in terms of need it would be qb, rb, db and wr, in that order.
I think after Surtain and Joesph, Chase is the best available player. I would put Goodrich next, over Joiner, but we are thinner at rb.
Balancing need and bpa, if I could pick four players, it would be Surtain, Joseph, Chase and Foster. Goodrich seems to be the better player than Foster, but if you are going to reach at all for a position it would be qb.
We are on some good running backs for next year, so if it came down to Chase, Goodrich and Joiner for the last two spots, give me the best players, Chase and Goodrich.
Of course figuring out who is the best player is not a science. Most people would have taken Fulton before Greedy, lucky we got both.
But now with four spots left for LSU , if you assume you have 6 or 7 players willing to come, you do have a need and bpa analysis to make.
With Surtain and Joseph, it’s a no brainer. These guys are both at a position of need for this class and both highly rated.
After that it gets harder. I would say in terms of need it would be qb, rb, db and wr, in that order.
I think after Surtain and Joesph, Chase is the best available player. I would put Goodrich next, over Joiner, but we are thinner at rb.
Balancing need and bpa, if I could pick four players, it would be Surtain, Joseph, Chase and Foster. Goodrich seems to be the better player than Foster, but if you are going to reach at all for a position it would be qb.
We are on some good running backs for next year, so if it came down to Chase, Goodrich and Joiner for the last two spots, give me the best players, Chase and Goodrich.
Of course figuring out who is the best player is not a science. Most people would have taken Fulton before Greedy, lucky we got both.
7
Posted on 12/23/17 at 6:21 pm to paper tiger
You can draft BPA because you can still fill that need through free agency or trade.
Posted on 12/23/17 at 6:36 pm to paper tiger
I would Like Joiner but how many RBs are we taking this year and next? I know it’s a position of needs but do we need 7 on the roster in 2019?
Depth wise I think We’re ok, but I don’t know if any of them are the kind of guy you can really lean on .
Depth wise I think We’re ok, but I don’t know if any of them are the kind of guy you can really lean on .
Posted on 12/23/17 at 9:43 pm to paper tiger
I'm wondering if grey shirts are still a possibility for some players already signed?
In other words... are we really limited to four schollies in Feb?
In other words... are we really limited to four schollies in Feb?
Posted on 12/23/17 at 10:44 pm to TriDitty
quote:
I'm wondering if grey shirts are still a possibility for some players already signed?
No. Once they signed they're no longer possibilities for gray shirts.
As for the scholarship limit, I don't think the "hard cap" is written as such in the revised recruiting rules. Teams will still over sign. The question really is, does LSU have any room to over sign? That's unknown to me at this time. We signed 24 guys last year and also added 3 transfers. I'm not sure if we had space for more than 27 or not.
Posted on 12/24/17 at 12:12 am to paper tiger
Surtain
Joseph
Goodrich
Joiner
Possibly Watkins (Commiting Jan 4 at UA game)
LETS RIDE!
Joseph
Goodrich
Joiner
Possibly Watkins (Commiting Jan 4 at UA game)
LETS RIDE!
Posted on 12/24/17 at 12:42 am to Wrucker16
quote:and Chase is where I’m at. I’d pass on Joiner and Foster. Both have very average tape for all the hype. Curry is a better RB than Joiner and he’s in the boat already. People wanting a QB just to have a QB haven’t watched much tape on Foster. McMillan is better than Foster. Get a grad transfer and hit the reset button next cycle. Foster isn’t a can’t miss.
Surtain Joseph Goodrich
Posted on 12/24/17 at 2:05 am to paper tiger
quote:
After that it gets harder. I would say in terms of need it would be qb, rb, db and wr, in that order.
We have two RBs to play one position. If we get Joseph and Surtain we have two DBs to play five positions. DB will be our biggest need. An argument could be made for QB, but it’s moot. We apparently don’t have a good QB on the hook.
The mistake that most on here are making is considering depth on next year’s team. It’s the teams two to four years from now that should be considered. That’s when these guys will be in their prime. Next year’s depth should only come into play when the need is dire. It is not dire at RB next year. We will have five. Since the situation is not dire we should only short DB if we have player on the hook who is Guice level. We don’t. Get the third DB.
Posted on 12/24/17 at 7:13 am to whitefoot
quote:
quote:
I'm wondering if grey shirts are still a possibility for some players already signed?
No. Once they signed they're no longer possibilities for gray shirts.
As for the scholarship limit, I don't think the "hard cap" is written as such in the revised recruiting rules. Teams will still over sign. The question really is, does LSU have any room to over sign? That's unknown to me at this time. We signed 24 guys last year and also added 3 transfers. I'm not sure if we had space for more than 27 or not.
No it is a hard cap now. I read an article where the author went to the NCAA concerning regular transfers and graduate transfers. The NCAA reportedly told the author that both counted against the 25 new scholarship limit.
I think the only way to add more than 25 now will be walkons. I think you can give walk-ons a scholarship without limit after a couple years in school.
This post was edited on 12/24/17 at 7:17 am
Posted on 12/24/17 at 7:38 am to Penrod
quote:
It is not dire at RB next year. We will have five. Since the situation is not dire...
There is not a single proven back on the roster. Clyde has only touched the ball a couple of times outside of kneeling kickoffs in the end zone. Brossette has either been injured or in the doghouse for fumbling his entire career at LSU. Lanard Fourette hasn't received meaningful action since the spring game.
Chris curry could very well be a surprise and take the starting job as a freshman, similar has happened before. I still think you have to take another running back this year. We don't have a starter right now. By default it's Clyde but we're talking about the starting tailback for LSU.
Posted on 12/24/17 at 8:49 am to mdwilkins
The 25 player limit has been in place for a while. It's always been talked about like it's a hard cap, but there is still the same way around it that always existed. I.e. counting spring enrollees on the current academic year's (2017-2018) 25 rather than the next year's (2018-2019) 25.
Posted on 12/24/17 at 8:52 am to Bear Is Dead
quote:
There is not a single proven back on the roster.
And signing another guy does nothing to fix this.
Posted on 12/25/17 at 7:33 am to whitefoot
Exactly. Especially not a guy that will get hit in the backfield a ton before he gets going.
Not sold on Joiner.
Not sold on Joiner.
Posted on 12/25/17 at 8:36 am to paper tiger
Your analysis reads like the choice is all ours and we are just picking the players we want.
Signing probability is a factor as well.
If Foster is on board, which I don’t think he is, then I would take him. Beyond that, I wouldn’t scramble for a last minute QB.
I also think we are good at QB. I like Curry better than Joiner. I would rather have Williams or Beal than joiner.
Signing probability is a factor as well.
If Foster is on board, which I don’t think he is, then I would take him. Beyond that, I wouldn’t scramble for a last minute QB.
I also think we are good at QB. I like Curry better than Joiner. I would rather have Williams or Beal than joiner.
Posted on 12/25/17 at 8:41 am to paper tiger
quote:
A mantra most NFL teams have for the draft is to almost always pick the best player available (bpa) over need.
Im the NFL, you can fill needs via more than draft. Also, you can take that extra 4 star LB and trade him for a guard of you need to.
Even then, there are exceptions to BPA
I think BPA applies to recruiting too but you can't be retarded about it.
Team recruiting rankings are based completely on starts but if you landed four 5 star receivers and zero worthwhile quarterbacks in 3 years your class isn't REALLY top 5.
Posted on 12/25/17 at 8:58 am to SoloTiger
quote:
Exactly. Especially not a guy that will get hit in the backfield a ton before he gets g
What does this even mean?
Posted on 12/25/17 at 9:30 am to Adam4848
It means he can be successful against Alabama high schoolers, but he doesn't hit the hole quick enough for the SEC. Actually his HS stats are pretty mediocre. A number of games he didn't even hit 100 yards.
Some people think he's the next Derrick Henry. I do not.
Some people think he's the next Derrick Henry. I do not.
Posted on 12/25/17 at 9:46 am to SoloTiger
Makes sense, thanks.
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