re: Official Running Log/Marathon Training Thread

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Running the full in Houston this weekend. Targeting a 2:58. Anybody else running that one?

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Anyone running the Louisiana Marathon on Sunday?

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Walter White Jr

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Sunday
Alright, here’s where the uncertainty kicks in. We’re just coming into range of some of the higher-resolution models, which tend to do a better job handling the timing of colder air masses like this. As we see additional model runs today, we should continue to get a better focus on the timing of the front. So I want you to understand that my confidence is low here, and we’re going to need to write the forecast in pencil for a little while.

With that said, the high resolution modeling is indicating that the front could reach Houston by around sunrise on Sunday. Yes, you read that right. If this is the case, temperatures on Sunday morning could be in the 30s for Houston marathon, with northerly winds. (I don’t expect precipitation at this time). This obviously is a significant change from previous forecasts, and something we’ll need to fine-tune. Again, it depends on the timing of the front.

A widespread freeze looks likely for Sunday night, with areas inland of Interstate 10 possibly seeing lows in the mid-20s.

As to the question of freezing precipitation, there are hints of it in the models but nothing concrete. We really need to see more data from the high-resolution outputs before I have any confidence. For now I’d rate the chance of seeing any wintry precipitation, either in the form of sleet or freezing rain, at about 25 percent. I still don’t think it will be significant issue for roadways, but obviously it’s something we’re going to be watching closely.

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How bad is the Houston Marathon going to be?

The answer to that question depends on your preference I suppose. I would expect temperatures perhaps dropping as runners are in motion. We may start in the 40s and drop into the 30s or start in the 30s and hold steady throughout. The wind? It doesn’t look horrific, but it doesn’t look great either. We expect northeast to east winds of 10 to 15 mph or so. There will certainly be some gusts near 20 mph at times in there as well. The more meaningful wind should thankfully hold off until Monday or Tuesday.

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