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re: Chances of a 22 shooting 76,82,81

Posted on 10/7/17 at 2:46 am to
Posted by BallChamp00
Member since May 2015
6374 posts
Posted on 10/7/17 at 2:46 am to
Member guest guest rules

Pro must check verify handicap. If there is no handicap for player he must play 3 times before the tourney and turn in card. The pro will check with member guest tournament committee to establish a handicap.

This is on ur pro.
Posted by BallChamp00
Member since May 2015
6374 posts
Posted on 10/7/17 at 2:50 am to
Take the probably out. You aren't a 10-12.
Posted by BallChamp00
Member since May 2015
6374 posts
Posted on 10/7/17 at 2:57 am to
In over 15 years of running a member guest we only had to kick 1 out. He was a 20 and his partner was an 8. We adjusted his to 18 as we had a 10 stroke diff limit.

He shot 75 in best ball as we made them play out due to counting scores for tourney handicap. He shot 77 the second day. We met with MG tourney committee and removed team.
Posted by makersmark1
earth
Member since Oct 2011
15884 posts
Posted on 10/7/17 at 7:52 am to
Handicap is basically reflective of your 10 best rounds of your last 20.

Beating your index happens about 1 in 4 rounds. If you beat it by 10 shots, that is long odds. Beating your index by more than 3 strikes 3 times in a row is lottery like.

I’m a 12 index. 15 course. The 83 I shot is about 120 to 1. I shot 94,91 the next rounds which are slightly worse than my handicap, but close to my average of 90.

I checked my entire group of partners. 12 guys from +4 to a 20.
Every single guy had only 4 to 5 rounds of their last 20 where they beat their index.
Posted by CoachChappy
Member since May 2013
32554 posts
Posted on 10/7/17 at 8:00 am to
quote:

I shot 94,91 the next round


Posted by makersmark1
earth
Member since Oct 2011
15884 posts
Posted on 10/7/17 at 8:13 am to
It is what it is. If I play well I break 90.

If I don’t, I don’t.

This guy who shot the 76 was getting 6 shots from me. His net 54 is like winning the lottery. Shooting 3 rounds in a row below 85 for a 22 is crazy.
Posted by CoachChappy
Member since May 2013
32554 posts
Posted on 10/7/17 at 8:15 am to
I’m just f’ing with ya baw.
quote:

This guy who shot the 76 was getting 6 shots from me. His net 54 is like winning the lottery. Shooting 3 rounds in a row below 85 for a 22 is crazy.

Total cheater
Posted by makersmark1
earth
Member since Oct 2011
15884 posts
Posted on 10/7/17 at 8:19 am to
Golf is so fun to me even though I’m not great.

My friend that is +4 eagled the last whole to shoot even par. Said to me, “I did nothing until that.”

I am working to be a 9 index. I have gone from 14 to 12 in 2 months.
Posted by AbuTheMonkey
Chicago, IL
Member since May 2014
8008 posts
Posted on 10/9/17 at 2:19 pm to
quote:

Handicap is basically reflective of your 10 best rounds of your last 20.

Beating your index happens about 1 in 4 rounds. If you beat it by 10 shots, that is long odds. Beating your index by more than 3 strikes 3 times in a row is lottery like.

I’m a 12 index. 15 course. The 83 I shot is about 120 to 1. I shot 94,91 the next rounds which are slightly worse than my handicap, but close to my average of 90.

I checked my entire group of partners. 12 guys from +4 to a 20.
Every single guy had only 4 to 5 rounds of their last 20 where they beat their index.


I do understand the mechanism, but I still don't believe handicaps measure variance well. It is designed to measure peak performance, and I'd be interested to see the analysis the USGA has on determining that based off a rolling 20 score data set.

In my case, and what probably is probably not all that uncommon for players who live in colder climates, my index will peak every year around June or July as I roll off my scores from the previous fall when I was playing well and had been playing for 4 - 5 months and start including more scores from crap rounds in the spring when I haven't played in 7 or 8 months. My index will steadily fall until September or October, and then I stop playing again until the next April or May. My gut feeling is that the variance is just higher in this case, especially compared to when I lived and played in places where you can comfortably play 8 or 9 months per year.

Not to excuse this particular guy the OP mentioned, because he sounds like a cheating turd, but I have seen cases of guys who live in the city who have talent because they grew up playing a lot but never get to play much any longer because it takes an hour to get to a course, is expensive, and can only play five months a year here. The variance on those players is just a hell of a lot higher than it is in other cases I've seen. I played Cog Hill, an exceptionally difficult course, last weekend with a group that is all in the same boat - guys who have some ability (would probably all be in the 10 - 12 range if we carried an index), don't get to play that much for one reason or another, but can occasionally put it together for a day or two: 77, 86, and two above 90. Just a huge variance there, and I am not sure an index captures that very well.

By the way, hole 18 on Cog Hill #4 might legit be the most difficult hole I have ever played. Only comparable hole I can recall would be hole 7 at Chambers Bay.
This post was edited on 10/9/17 at 2:27 pm
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
85054 posts
Posted on 10/9/17 at 2:26 pm to
There are lots of "problems" with HC. Variance of play is one but there's also the players themselves. A 4 HC guy who is really good with shortgame is going to stay around the 75-80 mark almost ever round. But a 4HC who's better with the longer sticks and struggles chipping and putting can have a round go from 74 to 86 from day to day.

Point being, it's not a perfect system. But it's all we have to give an idea of how good a player is or is currently playing and what they "should" be able to score on a good day at any given course.
Posted by TigerHoosier
Angola, IN
Member since May 2005
539 posts
Posted on 10/11/17 at 10:17 pm to
So, I read this thread last week. Have an interesting story.

I've played about 10 - 12 times a year, for the last 10 years. Was injured for awhile, worked alot, didn't have time, etc. Kept a handicap index that ranged between 14 and 17 or so.

This year, made a decision to try and play more. Played consistently thru end of July and game seemed to get worse. Latest index was 17.1.

Went and got a lesson two weeks ago. Worked on alignment, base setup, and not hinging at top of back swing. Went to range 5 times after the lesson and started hitting the ball really well, but not consistently.

Went out last week and played with Sunday group. Shot 80. Three jacked 18 to miss shooting 79. Granted, I got up and down a few times from suspect lies, but was ecstatic with the round.

Guys I played with were like, WTF.

Now I want to play everyday.

Posted by KillTheGophers
Member since Jan 2016
6218 posts
Posted on 10/11/17 at 11:12 pm to
quote:

Granted, I got up and down a few times from suspect lies, but was ecstatic with the round.



when I was at my golf peak, I always believed I could get u and down from anywhere....that confidence allowed me to play really, really well.

I would take on a bit more risk because I had the mindset that if I missed, I would simply chip then putt, collect my par then move on to the next hole.

These days, I struggle to post a decent GIR % for a round...in fact, it is embarrassing....and I don't play enough so my up and down skills are not sharp.

Posted by ElderTiger
Planet Earth
Member since Dec 2010
7004 posts
Posted on 10/12/17 at 7:07 pm to
Happens a lot in BREC tournaments !!!
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