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re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?

Posted on 3/18/19 at 1:08 pm to
Posted by MisslePig
Member since Jul 2018
961 posts
Posted on 3/18/19 at 1:08 pm to
quote:

It's been $60 doe for easily 10 years.


This is a great point, I would counter with...it's technology. Doesn't tech generally get cheaper over time? Could there be some sort of efficiency available now that was then?

Also, inflation is not the economic determinant of price. Supply and Demand is.

There's WAY more video games available, developers, platforms (supply/competition) today and the consumer has shown they aren't willing to pay $60 for games that aren't "AAA" (demand). Hell, I won't pay over $40.

And, one more point, $60 games a few years ago came with all sorts of things...now every game I buy is downloaded and there's no box. You actually do pay more than $60 to get the things that were standard all those years ago.
This post was edited on 3/18/19 at 1:11 pm
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
94788 posts
Posted on 3/18/19 at 1:35 pm to
Yeah you made a lot of my points for me.

The biggest one being that you used to get a physical copy of the game on a cartridge, diskette, or optical media plus an instruction manual.

These days, sales are heavily through digital delivery on consoles and near exclusively on PC.

From a distribution standpoint alone, that means a hell of a better bottom line for a game company since they don’t really have to make and ship a ton of physical copies for the most part.

The example given of the $50 NES game in 1991 was counterbalances by there being physical shortages of chips to make cartridges and that every cartridge was made in Asia and shipped by slow boat to the US and filtered through various levels of middlemen.


The high cost point of games that didn’t have specialized hardware tended to be $80 for an RPG in the 16 bit era. Part of those costs was translation, which is still an issue on JRPGs, but the rest of the cost was manual / hint books and cartridge memory. Those latter two are no longer an issue because both are digital rather than physical now.



The other issue I have with costs deals with the engines the developers are using.

Building a whole engine to do just one game is expensive if the game bombs, but reusing that engine to make numerous games cuts the development costs down significantly because you aren’t constantly reinventing the wheel.
Posted by oauron
Birmingham, AL
Member since Sep 2011
14509 posts
Posted on 3/18/19 at 1:58 pm to
quote:

It's difficult because the ~$50 price point has been such a notable fixture in gaming for over 30 years. But it will inevitably have to change at some point.


I do wish things were more like they are in Japan. There's a common price for most games, but bigger games have premium price points. It's very common to see games priced $30-90 at launch and that price is set by each publisher.

I'd like that because those high priced games will still nosedive in price in 3 months.
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
94788 posts
Posted on 3/18/19 at 3:26 pm to
Unless things have changed, Japan also has either no resale market or a very regulated one.

They also had no rentals on console games at one point, though I am sure that one has loosened up over time.
Posted by Hu_Flung_Pu
Central, LA
Member since Jan 2013
22156 posts
Posted on 3/18/19 at 4:12 pm to
quote:

The biggest one being that you used to get a physical copy of the game on a cartridge, diskette, or optical media plus an instruction manual.


Don't bring logic into this board! It's Epic's fault no matter what.
Posted by oauron
Birmingham, AL
Member since Sep 2011
14509 posts
Posted on 3/18/19 at 4:19 pm to
quote:

Unless things have changed, Japan also has either no resale market or a very regulated one.


Where'd you read that? The Japanese used market is fantastic. Shops will buy games back at much higher prices than US shops and the condition of the used market is far superior than what we see in the West (ie. things are in flawless condition most of the time). It's a big reason why big RPGs have no legs in Japan, because there's big incentives by the shops for the customers to sell their copy back to the store as soon as possible.
This post was edited on 3/18/19 at 4:21 pm
Posted by Scruffy
Kansas City
Member since Jul 2011
71998 posts
Posted on 3/18/19 at 4:36 pm to
quote:

The biggest one being that you used to get a physical copy of the game on a cartridge, diskette, or optical media plus an instruction manual.

These days, sales are heavily through digital delivery on consoles and near exclusively on PC.

From a distribution standpoint alone, that means a hell of a better bottom line for a game company since they don’t really have to make and ship a ton of physical copies for the most part.

This.

All these arguments that games should be more expensive is negated by the massive reduction cost in production and distribution.

It is one of the reasons why I always believed that digital should be cheaper than hard copy.
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
94788 posts
Posted on 3/18/19 at 4:43 pm to
Reselling of keys was outlawed in the past few years and at one point it was illegal to resell console games.

Granted, I’m probably working off old info.
Posted by SeeeeK
some where
Member since Sep 2012
28026 posts
Posted on 3/18/19 at 6:27 pm to
Because the games being put out are crap. Consumers are tired of being called names, told to FO, and treated like shite.



Posted by LSU Coyote
Member since Sep 2007
53390 posts
Posted on 3/18/19 at 7:06 pm to
What a disconnected fool.
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
94788 posts
Posted on 3/18/19 at 9:30 pm to
What a douche.


Buying exclusivity may get people in the door but pissing them off is a good way to make sure they don't go back.

He acts like there isn't such a thing as PC game piracy, which tends to make a comeback whenever game companies do something really stupid that bites them in the arse, be it crippling the game by accident as a copy protection measure (Arkham Knight), requiring the game be played online solely for copy protection reasons (EA and UbiSoft games like Sim City and Assassin's Creed), having a limited number of key activations for the game before requiring a new purchase, and so forth.


PC piracy tends to be minimal when the games are reasonably priced and companies don't do things that make it unreasonably hard for legitimate owners to play their games.

Forcing people to use a game store that is riddled with spyware / malware and sells your information to red China? Yeah, that's gonna be a no from me dawg. I'll hold off on the new Metro game until I either get it on a console or it reaches another storefront.
Posted by AUCE05
Member since Dec 2009
42557 posts
Posted on 3/19/19 at 7:53 am to
Games are too complicated and the market was flooded with open world and BR type games.
Posted by Chimlim
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Jul 2005
17712 posts
Posted on 3/19/19 at 8:13 am to
Seems these publishers lack long term vision. They do not care about their customer base. They want short term gain for long term pain. They need to re-focus and instead go for short term pain for long term gain - Microsoft learned this lesson.
This post was edited on 3/19/19 at 8:16 am
Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
9714 posts
Posted on 3/19/19 at 8:18 am to
Bring back College Football....
Posted by Master Guilbeau
Member since Jan 2013
1120 posts
Posted on 3/19/19 at 8:44 am to
I bought around 5k in stocks around this time last year from take two, and acti-blizzard. They were booming for a while but I’m at a loss now. Just planning on hanging onto them for 20 years and see what happens.
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
94788 posts
Posted on 3/19/19 at 1:30 pm to
Game company stocks in general seem like an extremely bad idea, though it is a bit late in your case.

Companies bubble up into being big earners then burst into nothing with little notice.


EA and Activision are about the only two survivors from the software developers of the early 1980s. Most of those got wiped out by the 1984 crash but a number of other once thriving companies went bust quickly when the exact wrong conditions hit, either in the industry or through bad decisions by the company themselves or through new ownership.



A general example would be Infocom, the text game company behind Zork.

They were big for years but a couple of factors killed them.

One, technology is an obvious one as advances in graphics killed the text adventure. Text held its own against 4 color CGA and 16 color EGA. Not so much against 256+ colors of VGA and SVGA. Same deal with sound cards becoming standard equipment as opposed to the shitty internal PC speaker, as the only title I’m aware of which integrated sound into gameplay was Lurking Horror.

Two, they expanded into business software by pouring a bunch of money into a database system (Cornerstone, IIRC) with the idea of branching out into different fields. It underwhelmed for a few reasons, including performance issues an an inability to deliver an intuitive command system similar to the text parser of the games.

Three, they got bought out by new ownership who made really dumb changes. A big one would be them changing policy so that they stopped shipping out copies of older games to stores. This was a dumb decision because backtitles like Zork 1-3 were still big sellers, the costs of distribution were minimal, and the text based nature of the games meant that they didn’t get outdated easily. This meant they left a lot of money on the table just by not understanding their product line.


All of that added up to a profitable company getting bought out and going under in a short timeframe.
Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
21228 posts
Posted on 3/19/19 at 1:35 pm to
All we need to right this ship is

GTA6
Halo 6
Death Stranding
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
94788 posts
Posted on 3/19/19 at 1:41 pm to
GTA 6 isn’t coming until Rockstar has wringed GTA V dry. And the fact they keep selling the game along with a ton of in game currency tells me it will be a while even though it has been out for years.
Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
21228 posts
Posted on 3/19/19 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

GTA 6 isn’t coming until Rockstar has wringed GTA V dry. And the fact they keep selling the game along with a ton of in game currency tells me it will be a while even though it has been out for years.


Sadly, you are right. After being #1 in its release year in 2013, it has maintained top 6 or better every year since.

GTA V only ranks behind Minecraft and Tetris all time.

I still say GTA 6 will roll around 2021 or sooner. They are working on it.
Posted by PEPE
Member since Jun 2018
8198 posts
Posted on 3/20/19 at 1:23 pm to
I'm amazed at how quickly and aggressively games get discounted these days.

Growing up in the NES/SNES era, games pretty much never got discounted, they pretty much stayed at ~$50 launch price point forever. I think that was largely a Nintendo thing cuz they still don't like to discount their older games even today. The players' choice re-releases starting in the SNES era was the closest thing you had, but even they were like $30.

These days a brand new game costs like $50-$60 but will be almost always be $40 within a just a few months, and within a year or two it's not uncommon to see it for ~$20. And these are major heavy hitting titles too, Bloodborne, Witcher 3, Doom, etc.

I think the gaming industry just moves so much faster these days, games from just 2 years ago are completely viewed as old news and will not move any additional copies unless aggressively discounted.

I guess that's another motivating factor for the big devs to want to embrace the live service model. They really want their investment to pay off over a longer period of time.
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