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MisslePig
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Member since Jul 2018
562 posts
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Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
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Article I thought you guys might like. I posted it on Reddit but I doubt it gets any visibility since that site is rigged AF.



alabamabuckeye
Alabama Fan
Member since Jun 2010
19801 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
Probably because EA and Activision don't give a shite about making actual good games anymore


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330
Mystery
USA Fan
Member since Jan 2009
7516 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
Lol so 2nd biggest year of all time. Am I reading this right?


SKY IS FALLING!!


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PEPE
Member since Jun 2018
4310 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
Jim Sterling actually had a great video recently about some of the major issues plaguing the triple A game industry right now

The Game Industry Is Choking Itself To Death

Actual content begins at 1:20 of the video.

It's def. worth a watch, he articulates a lot of problems with the big boys at the moment.

Essentially almost every game they release these days are designed to be live service time sinks (microtransactions, duh) and that format of game is ridiculously over-saturated right now.


Ace Midnight
LSU Fan
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
67232 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
"Pay to win"

"Microtransactions"

"Loot boxes"

-may be good for the bottom line, in the very short-term, but it doesn't build a solid gaming community or fanbase for a game.

It builds/reinforces addicts or shortcutters that do nothing for the merits of the game or improve the gaming experience.

/rant


ETA: The quality studios and independent publishers producing quality games (and I focus almost exclusively on PC, single-player games) should be patronized and supported if you want something different than what EA and Activision (and they're not alone - others are chasing the bucks, too) are offering presently.

And, BTW, at Anthem.
This post was edited on 3/13 at 12:22 pm


SonicAndBareKnuckles
Member since Jun 2018
413 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
As a gamer, I'm not really looking forward to any upcoming games coming from the big third party publishers.

As a finance guy, I am really looking forward to the business drama that may be ahead. The last half of 2018 was entertaining, and I want more in the future.

Interesting article, thanks OP.


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Scruffy
USA Fan
Member since Jul 2011
57131 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
The biggest issue is that everyone is creating games that are supposed to be live services that exist for a long time.

The industry can’t survive if it continues down this path.

You can’t have 10 different “games as services” and expect them all to thrive.

On top of that, I completely agree with Jim Sterling on how games are becoming so fricking long nowadays that it is damn near impossible for me to even play them.

I’m having a hell of a time finding games to play.

I can play some of the games like Destiny, The Division, etc., because they allow you to just jump in, but I can’t sink the hours into them that is required to reach the end game.

Same for a lot of the RPGs now too. I thought about putting Fallout 4 in the other day, but then I figured, what was the point?

I can’t play to the end game. I don’t have the time to put in 100 hours for gameplay now.

It is becoming a bit of an issue.


Mystery
USA Fan
Member since Jan 2009
7516 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
What are you guys looking at? Revenue is at all time highs. Even if China, Mobile and some big publishers have taken hits.

Things are as healthy as ever.

(Obviously the games as a service trend and incomplete launches are horrible. Anthem/Fallout are failures because of it. Lessons will be learned.)
This post was edited on 3/13 at 1:05 pm


Scruffy
USA Fan
Member since Jul 2011
57131 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
quote:

What are you guys looking at?
It is just a prediction.

I expect that, as game creation costs bloat and their sustainability exists solely on the concept of “games as a service”, it will start to collapse on itself.

How many subscription service games do people pay for at one time?

And I refer to them as “Subscription Service” games because they require significant additional payments to progress, such as “season passes”.

How many do y’all actually pay for now? Two? Three?

How many do you think the average person pays for?

Just last month, there were 4 games released that are tied to some form of “payment plan” to maintain their longevity.

I don’t see how that is a sustainable model.

We are only at the beginning of this “games as a service” period. I feel that it is peaking.

On top of that, many countries are looking into loot boxes, and one country has already banned them outright.

If those go the way of the dodo, that will be a huge hit to the industry.
This post was edited on 3/13 at 1:14 pm


BulldogXero
Mississippi St. Fan
Member since Oct 2011
8032 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
Remember when everyone got at Bethesda for Oblivion's horse armor DLC? How quaint that sounds in 2019

On some level, we are to blame for allowing studios to get away with this kind of monetization for too long. It started out innocently enough, but big triple A game studios are always going to look for ways to push the boundries on what they can get away with. This is why even $60 games are released incomplete yet riddled with microtransactions and season passes and in many cases are designed around pushing players towards spending real money.



McCaigBro69
George Mason Fan
TigerDroppings Premium Member
Member since Oct 2014
30409 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
quote:

"Pay to win"


How many ‘pay go win’ AAA games are out there?

I always hear this but have never actually played a game that incorporates it into multiplayer. I guess there is ‘pay to win’ in single player to speed grinding along, but what multiplayer games have it?


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sgallo3
USA Fan
Dorne
Member since Sep 2008
20162 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
i picked up Assassins Creed: Origins and the season pass for $30 about a month ago, but even with the season pass there is a lot of stuff tied behind some Helix Coins micro-transaction model. who the hell spends money on different weapons in a game like assassins creed?

anyway, i've been having a lot of fun with apex, i'll probably get the battle pass when it comes out, but i've never paid for anything on these other online games besides League of Legends when it was all i played. The new call of duty is ridiculous with all the stuff it tries to get you to purchase, and i don't even notice what skins people have on when i'm playing so i know noone else will notice if i'm wearing a cool $10 skin.


sgallo3
USA Fan
Dorne
Member since Sep 2008
20162 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
as long as i can keep waiting less than a year to get games for <$20 instead of $60 (farcry 5, god of war) i'm fine with the way the business is headed i guess
This post was edited on 3/13 at 1:30 pm


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Mystery
USA Fan
Member since Jan 2009
7516 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
Single player games have been killing it as well. It is not like everyone is just buying season pass type games. These very recent games for example. All doing exceptional.

RDR2
RE2
Kingdom Hearts
Ace Combat
DMC5 (sales are very good so far)

Sekiro comes out next week. Will do very well.


I get people getting frustrated with certain practices and they need to be curbed some but the industry is fine. I mean if you even look at the charts this guy is using it will show that. And those are probably low estimates.

This post was edited on 3/13 at 1:33 pm


SonicAndBareKnuckles
Member since Jun 2018
413 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
quote:

What are you guys looking at?


If the 2019 estimates are accurate, then revenues are in decline. This type of event could be the canary in the coal mine.

Investors want growth; second highest year for revenue doesn't mean much if the industry appears to be trending downwards and investment is shrinking.

EA is down about 20% and ATVI down about 40% in the past twelve months.

If the estimates are wrong though, there will be a very nice rebound in share prices.



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Scruffy
USA Fan
Member since Jul 2011
57131 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
EA stock peaked recently at ~$150 per share, then lost about $50 per share, currently sitting at ~$100.

Activision peaked at ~$83 per share and then dropped to ~$43.

This was over the previous year for both of them.

Why are we seeing such a contraction if profits are the highest ever?

Someone sees something that we don’t.


sgallo3
USA Fan
Dorne
Member since Sep 2008
20162 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
Because they were overvalued to begin with?


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30
Mystery
USA Fan
Member since Jan 2009
7516 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
EA and Activision are not the gaming industry as a whole.

And those companies just had major failures.
This post was edited on 3/13 at 2:10 pm


sgallo3
USA Fan
Dorne
Member since Sep 2008
20162 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
EA has set themselves up for this. Their sports franchises used to carry them and they have driven off a huge percentage of their player base with their insistance in placing Ultimate Team/Micro-transactions above everything else. I'm done purchasing EA sports games (besides UFC), and i was always a guaranteed NCAA/FIFA/Madden purchase my entire life


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BulldogXero
Mississippi St. Fan
Member since Oct 2011
8032 posts

re: Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?
quote:

Single player games have been killing it as well. It is not like everyone is just buying season pass type games. These very recent games for example. All doing exceptional. RDR2 RE2 Kingdom Hearts Ace Combat DMC5 (sales are very good so far) Sekiro comes out next week. Will do very well. I get people getting frustrated with certain practices and they need to be curbed some but the industry is fine. I mean if you even look at the charts this guy is using it will show that. And those are probably low estimates.


The industry isn't to hell in a handbasket yet, but we should be very wary of the direction the industry is headed in as it spells trouble for down the road. Look at how many studios have closed since even the PS3/360 days.


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