what are the chances that Baton Rouge floods

1.5%

I think the vet school and areas around river road will have at least minor flooding II imagine The folks who live in River Bend are at ease

I think it's a 25% chance. The morganza isn't guaranteed to work, plus the possibility of further rainfall/levee breech. I'm concerned.

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The folks who live in River Bend are not at ease

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I think we will be fine, probably just have to deal with flooded back yard all the time becuase of seepage.

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I say maybe 5%

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1.5%

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I wouldn't call it likely (i.e. greater than 50), but it is MUCH higher than this.

You do realize that as it stands, the water will overtop the levees in BR in a couple of places, which will only be stopped by temporary reinforcement on the ridge they are placing now.

And that ignores erosion/sand boil concerns of which were are many at multiple points in BR.

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River Bend

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Yeah, about that. Do I need to join the kayak mafia soon?

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Do I need to join the kayak mafia soon?

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They are planning a kayak race down river road I believe on the OB

The vet school is already experiencing flooding from ground water seepage. Fox 8 news showed it last night.

before I go study ill finish with this

the lowest point of the levee in Baton Rouge is down town, and if M spill way opens it won't top that, and I suspect with the sandbags while its not the safest way to keep water out will do its job to keep the river at bay if it does overtop.

but the leeve at that point, Baton Rouge is kinda like a natural levee. on the other side of that levee it is about 38 or so feet, about 100 or so feet east the land goes up to about 50 feet above the excpted top of the levee.

So the only part that could be overtopped is an area that will not see any breaches becuase the way it is designed there and the way the land is at that location. The places were there could be a breach is south of the bridge on river road. These areas are all above 50 feet so even if Morganza doesn't open those areas won't be overtopped.

the only think I don't know about is how much of a threat the sand bois are and such. Would they be enough to take down a levee without water overtopping it. I hope so, we have had flood stages near this point many times in this history yes not this high but really really high. I think baton rouge is going to be fine.

I don't know the specifics of how the levees would break, but living down at this point my entire life, i know what the area is like. I know the levees won't overtop south of the bridge. We are going to be fine.