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Message
Trigger Passed
Posted on 5/12/11 at 8:45 am
Posted on 5/12/11 at 8:45 am
Just heard on 870AM that the river surpassed the 1.5 yesterday all the way to 1.8 and then fell to 1.6. They say that they now may not open the Morganza and that the water would get within 6in of the levee top in N.O. It seems they are definitely scared of opening Morganza.
This post was edited on 5/12/11 at 8:46 am
9
Posted on 5/12/11 at 8:47 am to Franktowntiger7
Hell, we are still 10+ days from the peak.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 8:49 am to fishfighter
They are gonna open Morganza
Posted on 5/12/11 at 8:49 am to Franktowntiger7
quote:
Just heard on 870AM that the river surpassed the 1.5 yesterday all the way to 1.8 and then fell to 1.6.
From who, Bob Del Giorno?
Posted on 5/12/11 at 8:50 am to Y.A. Tittle
Missed it, but it was an invited guest.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 8:52 am to Franktowntiger7
quote:
. They say that they now may not open the Morganza and that the water would get within 6in of the levee top in N.O
That is a huge roll of the dice.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 8:52 am to kevg33
Yeah, I still think it has to open. Too much at risk.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 8:53 am to Franktowntiger7
quote:
It seems they are definitely scared of opening Morganza.
This is the feeling I am starting to get. Starting to wonder if the risk of losing control of the river is greater than the risk of over topping the levees..
Posted on 5/12/11 at 9:22 am to bayoudude
quote:
Starting to wonder if the risk of losing control of the river is greater than the risk of over topping the levees..
That's a scary thought.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 9:24 am to bayoudude
I think we will get an announcement today that its going to open either Sunday or Monday morning.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 9:24 am to bayoudude
quote:
This is the feeling I am starting to get. Starting to wonder if the risk of losing control of the river is greater than the risk of over topping the levees..
But if Morganza isn't opened, wouldn't that increase the chances of pressure building on it and ORCS, ultimately leading in their catastrophic failure and the inevitable diversion of the Mississippi?
Posted on 5/12/11 at 9:26 am to Quidam65
I would think that is a good possibility as well. There really isn't anything good about this situation no matter what is done by the corps.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 9:29 am to Quidam65
quote:
But if Morganza isn't opened, wouldn't that increase the chances of pressure building on it and ORCS, ultimately leading in their catastrophic failure and the inevitable diversion of the Mississippi?
if there is any scour at low sill, which i'm sure has been investigate and rehabbed to no end, they could close low sill and divert through auxilliary which is newer, and more likely much better constructed and planned
im not that worried about another low sill failure to be honest
Posted on 5/12/11 at 9:31 am to Croacka
Not being from Louisiana, need help. Where or what is "low sill" as relates to Morganza, ORCS, etc.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 9:36 am to Quidam65
They have had 38 friggin years to come up with a better way of dealing with this. Very frustrating and frightening.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 9:38 am to bayoudude
Well overtopping the levees is one thing, but having a levee fail is an entirely different and much more devastating catastrophe. If the levee is just overtopped they can control that with sandbags, etc. with minimal effects but if the levees wash out due to the immense volume then its Katy bar the door.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 9:42 am to Quidam65
quote:
Where or what is "low sill" as relates to Morganza, ORCS, etc.
low sill is one of the ORCS, they later built the auxiliary structure to alleviate the low sill structure because of its near failure
they are located not too far upstream from where the river flanks the morganza forebay
Posted on 5/12/11 at 9:42 am to Franktowntiger7
Without and with Morganza:
Baton Rouge 47.5 45.5-46.5
New Orleans 19.5 17
Donaldsonville 36 34
Reserve 28 25
Baton Rouge 47.5 45.5-46.5
New Orleans 19.5 17
Donaldsonville 36 34
Reserve 28 25
Posted on 5/12/11 at 9:45 am to Franktowntiger7
I heard exactly the same thing this morning. My first thought was WTF
Looking at the numbers I just cannot believe they would consider keeping Morganza closed and trying to keep the water below the levees at a less than 6 inch difference between the two.....
maybe they are just posturing to make it sound as if they really dont want to do this and then when the time comes they will pull the trigger fast and furious on Morganza.
Looking at the numbers I just cannot believe they would consider keeping Morganza closed and trying to keep the water below the levees at a less than 6 inch difference between the two.....
maybe they are just posturing to make it sound as if they really dont want to do this and then when the time comes they will pull the trigger fast and furious on Morganza.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 9:53 am to Franktowntiger7
i would ask them this question
what would have more loss of life, a catastrophic failure of the morganza or a catastrophic fail of a levee at a heavy populated area in Baton Rouge Or New Olreans
what would have more loss of life, a catastrophic failure of the morganza or a catastrophic fail of a levee at a heavy populated area in Baton Rouge Or New Olreans
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