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Started By
Message
re: Mississippi River Flooding - Links & Pictures in 1st Post
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:16 pm to RhodeIslandRed
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:16 pm to RhodeIslandRed
ScottieP:
What kind of rain forecast should we be watching that would revise the crest level upwards?
Cairo, IL is expecting thunderstorms on Saturday, May 7th and Wednesday, May 11th. Is that too far upstream to have a large effect in LA?
Also, I believe I saw earlier in this thread that the original BR prediction was a crest on 5/21. That has been moved back to 5/23. Is that good, bad, or indifferent?
What kind of rain forecast should we be watching that would revise the crest level upwards?
Cairo, IL is expecting thunderstorms on Saturday, May 7th and Wednesday, May 11th. Is that too far upstream to have a large effect in LA?
Also, I believe I saw earlier in this thread that the original BR prediction was a crest on 5/21. That has been moved back to 5/23. Is that good, bad, or indifferent?
1
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:19 pm to TigerTatorTots
Where is it showing 48.9? Link? Just asking the one site I looked at still at 47.5. Thanks
This post was edited on 5/3/11 at 9:24 pm
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:19 pm to DONHOGG
No that's not true, go to Natchez democrat.com and read latest
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:19 pm to swampdawg
quote:
And that happens to be downtown
The good news is that the natural levee is only a few 100 feet beyond the manmade one immediately downtown.
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:21 pm to lathoroughbred
quote:
My daddy owned the 601 club and the Elmokey bar on 6th street. When?
When? So damn long ago that I don't want to say.
Where did I haunt when in high school? The Turf Club, Kentucky Bar and Grill, and Smith and Groves. Used to go to Harper's since they had the only Chinese food in the area and great steaks.
Did I pass the test?
ETA: The 601 rings a bell. I was probably there at some point but too blasted to remember. Do not recall the Elmokey.
This post was edited on 5/3/11 at 9:25 pm
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:21 pm to Bojangles
quote:
No that's not true, go to Natchez democrat.com and read lates
Also, if you read some of the comments on various stories, you will see some true dumbasses.
I wish some of them would come here.
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:24 pm to dome53
quote:
No that's not true, go to Natchez democrat.com and read latest
I have no clue if it's right or not. I just came across it and thought I would share. I'm not sure of the reliability or what.
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:24 pm to Impotent Waffle
quote:I've only seen 47.5 as well
Where is it showing 48.9? Link? Just asking the one site I looked at still at 47.5. Thanks
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:25 pm to Uncle Ned
quote:
From this graph it looks like at least 2500 kcfs will pass Arkansas City. From this the ORCS can take 620 kcfs. BC can take 250 kcfs. This leaves 1630 kcfs to pass New Orleans. The Army Corps only allows 1250 kcfs to pass New Orleans. Thus, Morganza will have to be opened.
Am I reading anything wrong here
Looking at the graph you posted I can see how you estimated the 250kcfs on the right side of the graph. But look at it again, see how the numbers stop on the axis. It means that the current rating in use can not estimate what the actual flow rate will be at that river stage.
Look at the graph again the y axis on the left is in equal 1 foot increments but the y axis on the right varies.
I am not saying that 250kcfs is not a good estimate on your part but due to the lack of data at this river stage it very well could be less or more.
With that said the Corps is mandated to do everything they can (open spillways and allow more flow through the ORCS) to not allow more that 1.5 million cfs past BR and 1.25 million past NOLA.
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:27 pm to RhodeIslandRed
quote:
Where did I haunt when in high school? The Turf Club, Kentucky Bar and Grill, and Smith and Groves. Used to go to Harper's since they had the only Chinese food in the area
damn it man....went to the catholic grade school...lived on the park. Bill Chalmners ? was basketball coach? the good old days. I'm 48 Old man Doss used to run the town and I bought my yz80 yamaha from McGinnis
eta: forgive the word and spelling I had surgery yesterday at Western Baptist in Paducah frickin percocet pain killers
This post was edited on 5/3/11 at 9:33 pm
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:31 pm to Golfer
quote:
It was about 2 feet from the top of the levee in 2008.
Not sure where you were but we made measurements everyday just upstream of the USS KIDD and there was way more than 2 feet of free board on the levees.
Our gage is right there by the KIDD it peaked out at 43.1 feet in 2008.
So if it was 2 feet from the top in 2008 where you were I would suggest staying away from that area after this week if not you may get you feet wet.
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:33 pm to swampdawg
The opening of the BC spillway does not hurt the lake as bad as many people think. As a person who has fished the lake his entire life. The good it does often out weighs the bad. Large amounts of fresh water fish find their ways into the rivers and the passes in Manchac. Crabbing may be hurt in parts of the lake, but the crabs and other salt water creatures move from the fresh water to waters of higher salinity. The year after the spill way is open is best for the commercial fisherman.
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:34 pm to lathoroughbred
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:35 pm to ScottieP
quote:
Not sure where you were but we made measurements everyday just upstream of the USS KIDD and there was way more than 2 feet of free board on the levees.
Our gage is right there by the KIDD it peaked out at 43.1 feet in 2008.
So if it was 2 feet from the top in 2008 where you were I would suggest staying away from that area after this week if not you may get you feet wet.
I said about, and judging by your information and the information in the posts, it was 4 feet.
For the record, I know nothing about this stuff...
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:35 pm to lathoroughbred
I have a few years on you.
If you go around St. Mary's Park and Washington Avenue there are still some very nice homes, plus four or five other blocks. Other than that the place is depressing.
I was born at St. Mary's Hospital.
ETA: My cuz is a physical therapist in Paducah. Let me know of you sprain an ankle or something like that.
If you go around St. Mary's Park and Washington Avenue there are still some very nice homes, plus four or five other blocks. Other than that the place is depressing.
I was born at St. Mary's Hospital.
ETA: My cuz is a physical therapist in Paducah. Let me know of you sprain an ankle or something like that.
This post was edited on 5/3/11 at 9:39 pm
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:38 pm to rickyh
quote:
The opening of the BC spillway does not hurt the lake as bad as many people think. As a person who has fished the lake his entire life. The good it does often out weighs the bad. Large amounts of fresh water fish find their ways into the rivers and the passes in Manchac. Crabbing may be hurt in parts of the lake, but the crabs and other salt water creatures move from the fresh water to waters of higher salinity. The year after the spill way is open is best for the commercial fisherman.
Good call.
If it was opened more frequently, I bet many of the FW atributes of the areas surrounding the lake would begin to reestablish.
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:39 pm to RhodeIslandRed
Sorry if I missed it earlier in the thread. But does anyone know how much if any notice will be given if they open the Morganza? TIA
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:41 pm to slackster
quote:
What kind of rain forecast should we be watching that would revise the crest level upwards?
Don't have much experience with how rain effects the forecast models. But lets just say if it rains the water has to go somewhere and eventually it is going to pass by Baton Rouge so any rain up north will effect the forecast. When it happens and how much will be the determining factors on the true effect.
quote:
the original BR prediction was a crest on 5/21. That has been moved back to 5/23
As time passes the models will be able to better predict when and how high the peak occurs. Thus the change.
I would also guess that the blowing of the levee in Madrid had something to do with it.
This post was edited on 5/3/11 at 10:43 pm
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:42 pm to RhodeIslandRed
quote:
If you go around St. Mary's Park and Washington Avenue there are still some very nice homes, plus four or five other blocks. Other than that the place is depressing.
I was born at St. Mary's Hospital.
Wow. and yes it is depressing we all know why. the TURF Club always had the best pizza. I still have 100 acres around Karnak. I go back and forth between Lafayette (work offshore abnd a home there) and my new house in Reidland KY...wow small world
end hijack Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:42 pm to King
quote:Sad.
More important than the household appliances, the clothes, and the furniture floating in his house, are pictures of Moses’ grandson who passed away.
“That’s the only thing I have left and it’s really hard to bear,” says Lakken Moses, Bill’s daughter. “I tried to come home yesterday and it’s impossible [to get in].”
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