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Message
2
Posted on 5/7/11 at 9:49 pm to Rebel
quote:
both deep and wide.
twss
Posted on 5/7/11 at 9:51 pm to Volvagia
quote:
TBH, if it came down to deciding between the two (which I don't think is in the cards at all), they'll probably let even NO go rather than let the river completely divert.
A river diversion is *that* bad
Yeah, I mean I don't really think they would do that intentionally, but it is in the cards for them to try to divert discharge somewhere prior to it getting to BR based on the Arkansas City crest level discharge. I think they'll operate old river to the brink of failing if they have to, I just hope they don't incorrectly guess where the fail point is.
Posted on 5/7/11 at 9:51 pm to Rebel
You think water will get to the Germantown area?
Posted on 5/7/11 at 9:54 pm to TIGERSandFROGS
I heard that they won't push ORCS more than a couple percent more open than the standard 30% flowrate just because they are that scared of it.
Posted on 5/7/11 at 9:55 pm to TIGERSandFROGS
quote:
Arkansas City crest level discharge
Is the key to this entire puzzle.
Posted on 5/7/11 at 9:55 pm to Rocket
quote:
TBH, if it came down to deciding between the two (which I don't think is in the cards at all), they'll probably let even NO go rather than let the river completely divert.
A river diversion is *that* bad
Think they would start blowing-up any levee they could before diversion or giving up on nola
Posted on 5/7/11 at 9:56 pm to Volvagia
quote:
I heard that they won't push ORCS more than a couple percent more open than the standard 30% flowrate just because they are that scared of it.
That's what I saw, as well - something like 31-32%.
But then someone said that there was a gov. max of 30%, so...
Posted on 5/7/11 at 9:57 pm to Rocket
quote:
You think water will get to the Germantown area?
it won't get past riverside drive. i had to add water to my pool today.
Posted on 5/7/11 at 9:58 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
Okay, I know ORCS almost failed, is due to fail, and might fail...but what are the chances that it DOES fail?
My vote is for "slim to none." After the '73 boondoggle, there was a huge rehab and retrofit project on the original structure. They built a 2nd structure which I heard was intended to replace the original structure, but the repair work on the original went so well that they kept them both in service.
It was a scour issue that threatened to undermine the original. Apparently, the poured a giant apron on upstream and downstream sides, and injected grout under the main structure to fill any voids and stabilize the soil. After the repairs were completed, I'm guessing the Corps decided it was better than brand new...
Finally, (FWIW, IMHO, etc) the river might want to "jump", but we're not going to let it. No matter what the cost.
Posted on 5/7/11 at 9:59 pm to Rebel
Good stuff
Stay white
Stay white
Posted on 5/7/11 at 10:00 pm to White Roach
quote:
the Birds Point New Madrid Floodway, the river fell something like 2' in about 24 hours at Cairo, IL. (That's also why the crest dates were pushed back a day or two in some downstream locations. That water will re-enter the river after moving through the floodway at a lower velocity.)
I know you weren't busting my balls on the links, I just wanted to show where those numbers came from.
I believe you're right, I'm just throwing out a way we could both be wrong with the accelerating flow rate being offset, thing.
I think it's the numbers that you see on the tables there that "trigger" the spillways. When BR's forecast includes a kcfs over 1500 on those tables, I would suspect Morganza will be for sure opening soon, which they already are preparing for as if it was going to happen (which it will). Notice Nola has been projected above 1250 kcfs since they announce the BC spillway would be opening.
Edit: corrected wrong Nola flow rate
This post was edited on 5/7/11 at 10:04 pm
Posted on 5/7/11 at 10:01 pm to White Roach
quote:
After the repairs were completed, I'm guessing the Corps decided it was better than brand new...
God dammit.
You were going a long way towards making me feel better and then you had to frick it all up with that statement.
EDIT:
Seriously though...one lasting effect I think from that damage is that the Low Sil structure can only take (from a design perspective, not a hard limit) around 22 feet of water as opposed to the originally designed 30-odd feet.
This post was edited on 5/7/11 at 10:08 pm
Posted on 5/7/11 at 10:08 pm to Volvagia
quote:
You were going a long way towards making me feel better and then you had to frick it all up with that statement
I felt that in the interest of full disclosure, that caveat was necessary!
Believe it or not, there are a lot of very smart people, military and civilian, working for the USACE. Unfortunately, there are also some idiots involved.
Posted on 5/7/11 at 10:19 pm to White Roach
a view of the river taken about an hour and half ago from the south bluff in Memphis.
Posted on 5/7/11 at 10:20 pm to Rebel
That's a beautiful lake, Rebel.
Posted on 5/7/11 at 10:22 pm to RummelTiger
that damn boat is almost exactly where my bbq team should be setting up.
Posted on 5/7/11 at 10:27 pm to Rebel
here is a shot of couple that wanted to take advantage of the flood by letting their children swim in the sewar water that has backed up into Tom Lee park. (lower left hand side)
Posted on 5/7/11 at 10:28 pm to Rebel
I'll never understand people that swim in flood water.
Posted on 5/7/11 at 10:31 pm to RummelTiger
*light bulb*
I really hope that's not why they had a cop car posted at the top of the levee near that observation point near the vet school...
Its not just flood water....its the fricking Mississippi.
I really hope that's not why they had a cop car posted at the top of the levee near that observation point near the vet school...
Its not just flood water....its the fricking Mississippi.
This post was edited on 5/7/11 at 10:32 pm
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