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re: IF the river were to change course...

Posted on 5/12/11 at 3:26 pm to
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
52355 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 3:26 pm to
The diversion is going to eat a channel in the new route.

It's would take out a lot of the footings of it

As for the aforemeationed idea, I'm not sure if there really is a dry land place. It's not a simple interface....
Posted by bakersman
Shreveport
Member since Apr 2011
5839 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 3:29 pm to
quote:

I would think it would be cheaper to dredge from the mouth of the AR down to BR/NOLA to keep those docks active even with less flow coming down than it would to relocate the infrastructure.


have you looked at a map lately? the mouth of the AR is near morgan city.
Posted by kittie
Lafayette, LA
Member since May 2011
10 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 5:26 pm to
quote:

True, but who said anything about driving?

With everything between Lafayette and BR being underwater, you must think outside the box (or levees, in this case). The new SuperCajunDome will have boat slips just like Neyland Stadium.


On the bright side, I'll get to use my kayak to go see a Saints game.

On another note, there is SOME infrastructure this way, the Port of New Iberia comes to mind. Although some (all?) might be under water for a while. I have been curious about the 'worst case scenario' for a while. All the information that I've seen so far has just been along the lines of the Atchafalaya becoming the Mississippi River, but no explanation of exactly how wide, what areas might be under water, etc.

This scenario has been a possibility for decades, but I have yet to see any possible new 'future maps', for example. It's not possible that noone has looked at what will happen in that scenario, so why is this information hard to find?

Just venting, sorry.
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
52355 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 5:35 pm to
Because it depends on a lot of factors that won't be known till it actually happens.
Posted by TigerV
Member since Feb 2007
2700 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 5:41 pm to
The LA coast would grow at a rapid rate where the mouth would open to the gulf, the areas around the present mouth would dissappear. The Louisiana coast would be unrecognizable in a year.
Posted by glassman
Next to the beer taps at Finn's
Member since Oct 2008
117291 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 5:47 pm to
quote:

The Louisiana coast would be unrecognizable in a year.


Geologic tranformations take longer than a year. But, your premise in corect.
Posted by HooDooWitch
TD Bronze member
Member since Sep 2009
10794 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 6:09 pm to
Has there been a major river anywhere in the world changed course in the modern era, like the Amazon, and if so what happened?
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 6:12 pm to
quote:

Has there been a major river anywhere in the world changed course in the modern era, like the Amazon


no, not like this would.

quote:

and if so what happened?



We don;t really know except that a new delta would form. It'll be neat to find out though.....

Posted by glassman
Next to the beer taps at Finn's
Member since Oct 2008
117291 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 6:15 pm to
I have no clue. But, the Mississippi will eventually change course and there is really nothing we can do about it. All we are doing is delaying the inevitable change in path.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
89461 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 7:11 pm to
quote:

I don't get the drinking water part. I am sure close to 30% of the river would still be rolling down. That should be plenty of flow to keep salt water at bay.


LINK

quote:

In southern Louisiana, the bed of the Mississippi River is so far below sea level that a flow of at least a hundred and twenty thousand cubic feet per second is needed to hold back salt water and keep it below New Orleans, which drinks the river.



Supposedly, if the rivers changed, the Mississippi would basically take on 30% of the water like the Atchafalaya does now. That requires 400,000cfs at the diversion.

quote:

its flow rate during the year varies from over 700,000 cfs to around 200,000 cfs.


Every time the flow dipped below 400K cfs New Orleans would be in trouble. The link below states that the average yearly flow for the past 30 years is 450K cfs.



LINK

This post was edited on 5/12/11 at 7:14 pm
Posted by GeorgeTheGreek
Sparta, Greece
Member since Mar 2008
67865 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 7:12 pm to
It's not going to change its course people ....
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
89461 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 7:15 pm to
quote:

It's not going to change its course people ....


This month? You are probably right. Eventually? Every resource I have come across states that it WILL happen eventually.
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
74449 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 7:19 pm to
quote:

It's not going to change its course people ....


I whole heartedly agree, just wanted to pose my question and see what guesses would come out. Didn't take many post before there was wild speculation with nothing to back it up. Amazing how many people that frequent the board are part time hydrologist(?).
Posted by Deathrider
Member since Aug 2010
3675 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 7:24 pm to
quote:

Has there been a major river anywhere in the world changed course in the modern era, like the Amazon, and if so what happened?


It did happen with the Yellow River in 1938 during the Second Sino-Japanese War.

LINK
quote:

To stop further Japanese advances into the western and southern part China, Chiang Kai-shek, at the suggestion of Chen Guofu, determined to open up the dikes on the Yellow River near Zhengzhou. The original plan was to destroy the dike at Zhaokou, but due to difficulties at that location the dike was destroyed on June 5 and June 7 at Huayuankou, on the south bank. Waters flooded into Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu. The floods covered and destroyed thousands of square kilometers of farmland and shifted the mouth of the Yellow River hundreds of miles to the south. Thousands of villages were inundated or destroyed and several million villagers driven from their homes and made refugees. An official Nationalist post-war commission estimated that 800,000 were drowned, which may be a low figure.


The dykes were later repaired and the river resumed its original course.
Posted by GeorgeTheGreek
Sparta, Greece
Member since Mar 2008
67865 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 7:31 pm to
Well duh, and eventually the sun is gonna blow up. Just not this month.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
89461 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 7:47 pm to
quote:

Well duh, and eventually the sun is gonna blow up. Just not this month.



ORCS is 48 years old and there has already been one major scare in 1973. Who knows what this year will bring. That could be two major test in 48 years where the Corps almost lost the river. It is well within reason to think that LSU students today may live to see the river change course.
Posted by JDT2008
Plaucheville, La
Member since May 2011
13 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 8:20 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/12/11 at 8:21 pm
Posted by LSUgusto
Member since May 2005
19269 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 8:24 pm to
quote:

All we are doing is delaying the inevitable change in path.
And that may one day overshadow one of the greatest engineering endeavors in human history.
Posted by Crawdaddy
Slidell. The jewel of Louisiana
Member since Sep 2006
18829 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 8:29 pm to
quote:

Has there been a major river anywhere in the world changed course in the modern era, like the Amazon, and if so what happened?


I guess the Natives will move
Posted by JudgeHolden
Gila River
Member since Jan 2008
18566 posts
Posted on 5/12/11 at 8:34 pm to
quote:

have you looked at a map lately? the mouth of the AR is near morgan city.


Part of it also goes out of the Wax Lake Outlet through the Calumet cut. That is west of Morgan City.
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