re: So who is the "can't miss" #1 pick??

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Vick two years ago

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He was good, but not "elite".

Stafford last year.

Every single year there is a mid round QB that has fantastic production.

QBs pop up all the time, maybe moreso than RBs.

Brees wasn't a stud before New Orleans.

Rodgers was a backup to Favre.

Brady was a 7th round pick and backup to Bledsoe.

Kurt Warner. Derek Anderson. Matt Cassel. Mike Vick. Cam Newton. Jay Cutler. Josh Freeman. The list goes as far back as you want it to.

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you kidding me, he threw up the most points ever in a single week (71) and can remember him throwing up 40 and 50 pt on a couple of occasions in my standard scoring league. Not to mention he had a lot of people take him number 1 last year, so yea he was elite two years ago

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Oh yeah, THAT season...he was the definition of "elite" for several weeks.

I'd still rather a QB early, rather than a RB though.

To me, it isn't about points, it's about playing it conservative. How often are starting RBs banged up for fantasy playoffs? All the time. QBs are staying healthy these days, in general.

If you don't care that your #1 pick is banged up or hurt for your playoffs, so be it. Hope your last pick in the second round is a damn good one, or you could be screwed.

I mean you can't draft assuming injury for guys who don't have a history, yea injuries suck but anyone can get hurt, even if it is more likely for a RB. I'd still rather McCoy and Rivers than Jackson and Rogers

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Every year their is a kid round QB with fantastic production

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But there are 5 RBs a year(or WR's) that turn into RB1 and another 5 that become RB2's

You have a better chance of hitting on an unknown RB or WR than you do a QB.

If you do your homework there is generally "smoke" surrounding these position players. Just gotta follow the trail. Draft 2 or 3 of them to go with your elite QB and you'll be in business when 1 hits.

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So a 5th/6th rd QB and a 1st rd RB

or a 1st rd QB a 2nd/3rd rd RB?

at least make it apples to apples

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My point was, if you have the first pick, you solidify the RB and pick up another QB later whenever you see fit.

If you take a QB 1st overall, you wait 22 picks until you get another shot at a RB... which is Bradshaw territory.

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Foster/Rice/McCoy and Stafford

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Its not even close for me

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Stafford's ADP is 23. And I've rarely seen him go before there in mocks

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First off ADP means nothing since 80% of drafters online have no idea what they are doing.
Second I've done plenty of mocks and have yet to see him get past the second round.
Third if it was my choice I'd rather have Foster/Rice/McCoy, Sjax/Fjax/Charles, and then get Rivers/P.Manning/Matt Ryan later than either of the two options you listed.

Not to mention waiting till the 6th/7th to take one of those QB's means you likely got 2 good WR and a decent RB backup or good TE

I will always pick an "elite" RB over an "elite" QB.


If you do a hypothetical draft using last years results. Picking an RB over the QB will always land you with more total points.

I know total points does not necessarily mean wins but its the biggest factor.