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Am I crazy for possibly picking McCaffery early in PPR/Keeper league

Posted on 7/28/17 at 10:48 am
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
132652 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 10:48 am
I'm in a 12 team, 1pt PPR keeper league, picking 12th, snake draft. My 2 keepers are WRs that are both top 5 WRs so I start off stacked.

I'm really considering picking McCaffery at the end of the 1st/beginning of 2nd, assuming he is there. I just really think Carolina is going to throw to him a lot and he will catch a lot of passes his rookie year. I've been seeing him going in the 3rd in Keeper leagues.

Am I nuts, or will he go much later?

(Our league is also debating expanding to 3 keepers for next year, so that is part of my reasoning)
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
163330 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 11:30 am to
Well McCaffrey is about a 3rd rounder in most re drafts, so in a keeper situation assuming a lot of the premium guys are off the board that's not an unreasonable price, but that's spit balling and not knowing who's off the board
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
292060 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 11:43 am to
How many guys are being kept?

I wouldn't want him as my RB1. They'll really have to reinvent their offense to get him the ball like people think. Maybe over time but I don't think this year. I think he's an RB2 at best this year but being a keeper it would be your call. What 2 WRs are you keeping ?
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
132652 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 11:55 am to
Odell and Evans
Posted by Peazey
Metry
Member since Apr 2012
25433 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 12:02 pm to
If you do expand to 3 keepers then it seems like a pretty legit strat for sure.

I am curious about what other players would be available. Just based off of the info that you have given, a first round pick in this league is essentially like a 3rd round pick in a normal redraft. Maybe a Lamar Miller type player is available?
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
163330 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 12:10 pm to
I'm taking McCaffrey over Miller all day
Posted by Peazey
Metry
Member since Apr 2012
25433 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 12:38 pm to
Lamar Miller is being way undervalued. Last year is as bad as it gets, and he was still a worth while rb2. Houston's offense is going to be better and therefore Miller's opportunities are going to be better. Miller is a for sure workhorse rb getting by far most of his team's carries. There are not many of those in the league. McCaffery's role and fit in his offense isn't even defined yet.

Miller is the lower risk and better for this year pick. McCaffery is the better keeper pick.
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
292060 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 12:47 pm to
Yap miller is a post hype sleeper
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
163330 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 12:49 pm to
Lamar Miller is being given a pass due to people laying all of the blame on Osweiller and while yes he was an abortion, Miller was still incredibly mediocre with his touches including whe he had good blocking. Furthermore, are we sure that offense is really any better off with Savage or Watson this year? I'm not. Then he could potentially be losing GL touches to Foreman.

So what we have here is a mediocre back, in a bad offense that will have limited red zone opportunities, and those limited opportunities could find their way to a more capable short yardage back.
Posted by Peazey
Metry
Member since Apr 2012
25433 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 1:03 pm to
quote:

are we sure that offense is really any better off with Savage or Watson this year?


It's sort of a "there's no where to go but up" sort of thing. They probably still won't be good, but if Watson is as bad or worse than Osweiler was last year then he is already a bust, and the Texans might as well draft another QB in next year's draft.

Also, Miller looked better in games than you are giving him credit for last year. I think he still won't be a great fantasy player, but he is a great value for where he is being picked. He will flirt around that rb1/rb2 borderline, barring injury.
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
163330 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 1:10 pm to
I think Miller is priced about where you're drafting him at his ceiling. I'd prefer to roll the dice on McCaffrey but can't argue with going Miller
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
132652 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 1:26 pm to
What do people think of Ty Montgomery?
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
163330 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 2:24 pm to
I like him, even if you're scared of the rookie competition none of them are going to wrestle that receiving work away from him. High ceiling if he's bulked up and become a better runner as they say he has.
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
292060 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 3:43 pm to
if you're playing for this year, id rank them

Ty
Miller
McCaffery


Its just really hard to project McCaffery. Newton has never been a QB to throw to his RB. Not only that, he throws with no touch which is trouble in the short passing game.

What can you really expect out of the guy as a rookie? I dont think he is having a Reggie Bush type season.

I think he can catch 40-50 balls (27 is the most by any back with Newton at QB). Maybe 500 yards. 110 carries and another 450 yards. Or about what Darren Sproles had last year. If he can get 6-7 TDs he's a top 20 back. I have him closer to RB30.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
74538 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 3:46 pm to
The thing with Miller is, he was expected to do work in the pass game and that never came to fruition. On top of that, he's injury prone. Even though he played 14 games he was on the injury report for most of them. Didn't help him at all

He went from a guy you were comfortable as an RB1 to a guy you really want as an RB2 given his situation
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
292060 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 4:01 pm to
yea i dont love him but he is one of 10-12 RBs with no competition. Sheer volume makes him valuable. I tend to find myself drafting RBs based on volume then after talent these days
This post was edited on 7/28/17 at 4:02 pm
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
163330 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 7:12 pm to
Saying he's never thrown to a back consistently is a false narrative, how many backs with his skillset has he had?
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
74538 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 7:37 pm to
Deangelo all of a sudden became one of the better RB receiving threats in PIT. Of course part of it is the offense but I guess that's kind of the point

Cam has never had a CMC type of back bc he doesn't have many peers

I don't think he gets heavy heavy volume unless the drastically change their offense, though he doesn't need it bc he's a threat every time he touches it

What's the o/u for total touches here
Posted by CBandits82
Lurker since May 2008
Member since May 2012
59562 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 7:43 pm to
quote:

What's the o/u for total touches here


This.

As a team their backs had like 40 catches last year.

I understand they didn't have McCaffrey but it's something to note.
Posted by Gtothemoney
Da North Shore
Member since Sep 2012
17723 posts
Posted on 7/28/17 at 7:57 pm to
Carolina's OL was so bad last year they coulda used a back to catch the ball. Maybe that's the plan this year to keep Cam off his back.
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