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Since Spirit shareholders will be paid $33.50 per share, why not load up now at $25?

Posted on 7/28/22 at 1:39 pm
Posted by Ramblin Wreck
Member since Aug 2011
3898 posts
Posted on 7/28/22 at 1:39 pm
Other than the possibility of the government not allowing the merger, I don't ever understand why stock prices don't get closer to the buy outs once they are approved by the shareholders. What is the risk of me adding a lot more SAVE to my portfolio? It would seem they at least have a back-up plan if it doesn't go through and Frontier is still interested.
Posted by Hayekian serf
GA
Member since Dec 2020
2569 posts
Posted on 7/28/22 at 1:41 pm to
People said the same thing about Twitter a few months ago
Posted by UpstairsComputer
Prairieville
Member since Jan 2017
1576 posts
Posted on 7/28/22 at 1:42 pm to
The risk is the deal falls through... see TWTR
Posted by Decatur
Member since Mar 2007
28719 posts
Posted on 7/28/22 at 1:47 pm to
What’s the risk with the Twitter deal falling through? Is it going to go lower than before Musk made his offer? What would be the basis of that?

Btw should be seeing Musk’s Answer today.
Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
27825 posts
Posted on 7/28/22 at 2:24 pm to
Twitter was in the low $30 when musk started having a position with them. And with the negative ad news from others I don’t see how it doesn’t go much lower without musk buying them.
This post was edited on 7/28/22 at 2:25 pm
Posted by Mitlands
Member since Jun 2022
127 posts
Posted on 7/28/22 at 2:42 pm to
quote:

What would be the basis of that?


The fact that they have been selling advertising based on false information?
Posted by Tiger Prawn
Member since Dec 2016
21916 posts
Posted on 7/28/22 at 2:43 pm to
quote:

What’s the risk with the Twitter deal falling through? Is it going to go lower than before Musk made his offer? What would be the basis of that?
If the deal falls through, its likely because Elon was able to prove that Twitter was lying about how many of their supposed "active users" were actually bots.

If that happens, Twitter is going to be in a world of hurt because future advertising value will drop and previous advertisers are going to be looking for refunds because Twitter lied about how many real people the ads were reaching. Not to mention loss of trust.
Posted by AUHighPlainsDrifter
South Carolina
Member since Sep 2017
3096 posts
Posted on 7/28/22 at 2:47 pm to
quote:

Not to mention loss of trust.


Not to mention a class action lawsuit from stock holders
Posted by Decatur
Member since Mar 2007
28719 posts
Posted on 7/28/22 at 3:00 pm to
quote:

its likely because Elon was able to prove that Twitter was lying about how many of their supposed "active users" were actually bots.


Twitter didn’t make any representations about this to Musk and you can drive a truck through the language in the SEC filings.
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4112 posts
Posted on 7/28/22 at 4:46 pm to
quote:

Other than the possibility of the government not allowing the merger


You answered your own question right there. The market pricing of Spirit is essentially pointing to that possibility.
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4112 posts
Posted on 7/28/22 at 8:06 pm to
Well, at least Jet Blue didn’t offer thirty “4:20”.

JBLU is the only airline or travel stock that I own in my investment account. I’m less than thrilled with this play, but having owned it for years, I’ll just sit here with my popcorn and see what happens.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35239 posts
Posted on 7/28/22 at 8:31 pm to
quote:

its likely because Elon was able to prove that Twitter was lying about how many of their supposed "active users" were actually bots.
Judging by the arguments his lawyers submitted, he’s basing it on a misunderstanding of sampling and statistics. What they presented actually made me more confident in Twitter’s data, albeit with some methodological questions that need answered.
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