re: UK report shows almost 2/3 of Delta deaths were vaccinated

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Little help here;


Deaths within 28 days of positive specimen date; Received 2 doses- 389. Unvaccinated- 205.

What am I missing here? Legit asking.

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The numbers are skewed because there is a large percent of older patients who are vaccinated. It's probably hard to say too much since the numbers start in Feb when the percent vaccinated was very low, but here's what I get from the numbers.

If you just look at the number over 50 who caught delta Covid, you have 21472 vax and 3440 unvax with death at 389/205. With those numbers you get a risk of death at 1.8% for people who are vax'd IF they test positive, and 5.9% for the unvax'd.

For the under 50 you have 25536 vax and 147612 unvax with death at 13/48. In this group the risk of death for those testing positive is .05% for the vax'd and .03% for the unvax'd.

This doesn't really say much as far as how effective the vax is from preventing you from catching Covid, but IF you do catch it, it looks like this risk of death is roughly triple for the unvax'd over 50 and half for the unvax'd under 50.