re: LSU currently +3500 to win College Football National Championship

I'm not even a big gambler and I might get in on that action. LSU is probably severely undervalued.

1. LSU returns a ton of production from last year. The last time they returned as much? 2019. Yes, they were MUCH better in 2018 ahead of 2019 than they were in 2020 going into 2021, but I'm willing to give last year's performance a BIT of a pass by saying poor coaching hires, the pandemic/opt outs, and just general apathy played a big role in last season. We saw many guys who had good performances in 2019 look flat out terrible in 2020. I can't think that was simply a result of them just all of a sudden becoming bad players. It was clear (at least on defense) NO ONE ever bought into what Pelini and O wanted to to. Unfortunately O, as has been the case throughout his entire career, had to frick up royally before he realized he's at his best when he is simply recruiting and getting out of the way of the gameplay. He SEEMS to have corrected the course now.

2. The odd year schedule generally favors LSU (ex. 03, 05, 07, 11, 19 - All SECCG appearances; 4 NC game appearances). That's generally because Auburn, Florida and A&M come to BR (3 of LSU's 4 toughest yearly opponents). The only daunting road game is Alabama. But let's face it, LSU hasn't had much success at home vs. Alabama so it is not like Tiger Stadium has been a huge advantage. LSU's rotating cross-over game is at UK. The two other road games are the Mississippi schools. TLDR, LSU has a favorable schedule.

3. Statistical evidence shows LSU could be primed for a BIG rebound:

While not 100% accurate, the amount of returning talent/production is generally a good indicator of success. Who sits atop that list according to "Football Outsiders" when combined with the recruiting rankings of the 2021 class? Yep, LSU.

Returning Talent Index

Also...

quote:

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Since 1996, every team that has won an undisputed national title except for Oklahoma in 2000 has had at least two top ten national recruiting classes in the four years before a title. So while signing a top ten recruiting class doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win a national title — indeed, there are plenty of teams that don’t — for 24 of the past 25 years, you can’t win a title without at least two top ten recruiting classes.

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Going into this season there are only 13 teams who meet that criteria which means statistics show these 13 are the only ones with a legitimate shot to win the NC. LSU is one of those 13.

Among other notable teams on that list (Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St., Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M...) only LSU, Georgia and Clemson are returning players who have starts at QB, and either Clemson or Georgia will be 0-1 to start the season as they play each other in the opener.