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re: Take A Look at this Early return Analysis & Give me Your Thoughts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:49 pm to windshieldman
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:49 pm to windshieldman
quote:
Texas isn't a swing state. Trump wins TX, GA, OH, between Michigan and WI at least one of those. He'll win Arizon, FL, and NC. I don't think he wins MN or NV, not sure on NH and Pennsylvania.
I agree with all of this and I think he takes PA. There's a lot of oil jobs there.
0
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:55 pm to MFn GIMP
quote:
Jon Ralston has all but called Nevada for Biden
going off of the assumption that all Dem voters are voting Dem, which is likely not the case. Don't close the book on it yet.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:57 pm to Lsupimp
Trump's getting Florida by 2 or 3 points. He's actually gained about 6000 votes in the metro areas (Miami leading the way) relative to last time. Bay county also didn't have in person early voting before today and it's DEEEEEP red. Gulf county too but nobody lives there. Trump won Florida by like 100k votes last time. He will win by 200k to 230k this time with the higher turnout expected.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 2:20 pm to Lsupimp
Lots of red Dems in North Carolina just like a lot of the south.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 2:24 pm to Lsupimp
quote:
Iowa
Is not on the table. It's in the bank for Trump.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 2:41 pm to MFn GIMP
quote:
Jon Ralston has all but called Nevada for Biden and he is as good as gold there. I'd love for Trump to win here but if Ralston is saying Trump won't win he almost certainly won't.
This guy tweets daily about how evil the Trump campaign is. I wouldn't put too much stock into his predictions.
His analysis is not impressive at all. It's always full of obvious mistakes and leaps of logic.
He fails to recognize that Election Day 2020 is not like all the others. It will be much heavier Republican than normal. He's obsessed with the term "Clark firewall", but he forgets that Republicans will likely win Clark among Election Day voters.
He does not recognize polling crosstabs showing R's will outnumber D's on Election Day by huge margins - and yet he touts polling crosstabs showing Trump's advantage with NV independents evaporating.
He's a cherry picker, a hack, and a fraud.
If Biden wins Nevada, it won't be for any of the reasons Ralston has written about.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 2:44 pm to Lsupimp
310 plus !
Posted on 11/2/20 at 3:22 pm to RidiculousHype
More on Ralston while I'm on the subject.
He says "there just aren't enough votes left" for Republicans to catch up. Yet, the difference is 46,623 ballots with turnout at 66% Dem, 68% Rep so far.
Turnout in 2016 was 78% Dem, 83% Rep.
Nobody knows what the final turnout %s will be. But Rep turnout ticking up to 85% this time wouldn't be a shocker (they did it in 2012), and would be plenty of votes to catch up, unless Dems blow past their 2016 number.
Point is, nobody knows. But this talk of "not enough votes left" is nonsense.
He says "there just aren't enough votes left" for Republicans to catch up. Yet, the difference is 46,623 ballots with turnout at 66% Dem, 68% Rep so far.
Turnout in 2016 was 78% Dem, 83% Rep.
Nobody knows what the final turnout %s will be. But Rep turnout ticking up to 85% this time wouldn't be a shocker (they did it in 2012), and would be plenty of votes to catch up, unless Dems blow past their 2016 number.
Point is, nobody knows. But this talk of "not enough votes left" is nonsense.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 3:25 pm to Lsupimp
the confidence I've seen in WI and MI seems pretty wild to me
If Trump wins either - it's over IMO
If Trump wins either - it's over IMO
Posted on 11/2/20 at 3:27 pm to LSUSkip
quote:
going off of the assumption that all Dem voters are voting Dem, which is likely not the case. Don't close the book on it yet.
True but Ralston is the Selzer poll of Nevada. I will be pleasantly surprised if Trump pulls it out there but I'm not holding my breath.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 3:30 pm to MFn GIMP
quote:
True but Ralston is the Selzer poll of Nevada
Check my posts above. I don't know if he's slipping or never was any good, but I would disregard his analysis this time. I've spent a lot of time reading his stuff, doing my own math, and comparing.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 4:15 pm to Bandit1980
quote:
300 or more?
330+
Posted on 11/2/20 at 4:18 pm to windshieldman
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/20/21 at 5:00 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 4:19 pm to Army Frog Fan
Dems will be so pissed when Trump wins WITHOUT Pennsylvania, yet Trump fights for PA in the courts and ends up winning that state too 
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