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Started By
Message
Dems' Nevada EV Edge continuing to drift lower
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:16 pm
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:16 pm
7
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:17 pm to Lou Pai
Have they counted the early dead voters?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:18 pm to Wtodd
Biden will carry Nevada easily.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:18 pm to Lou Pai
How does it compare to 2016?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:18 pm to Wtodd
quote:
Have they counted the early dead voters?
Searching the desert.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:20 pm to GeorgeWest
quote:
Biden will carry Nevada easily.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:21 pm to LSU Patrick
quote:
Searching the desert.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:25 pm to Lou Pai
It looks like that 46,157 represents a 4% margin, correct? If so what was the max found earlier? Asking to assess trending. TIA.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:26 pm to Lou Pai
Democrat percentage dropped by .5% in both Clark and Washoe since yesterday.
Republicans made up votes in both
Republicans made up votes in both
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:28 pm to GeorgeWest
quote:Did Hillary carry it easily in 2016 when she won by 27,000 votes? Where are all of the workers living these days? Nevada or back in California?
Biden will carry Nevada easily.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:29 pm to bayoubengals88
We’re going to enter ED within the range plus the service Union has been decimated and they have had no real coordinated GOtV effort this cycle.
If it weren’t for the fact that Clark County is run exclusively by Dems and the setup makes it very easy for them to cheat I’d expect Trump to win.
As it is I feel like it’s 33% to 45% chance he actually secures the EV’s. But I do think DJT will be leading in NV for most of the night and even into the rest of next week before the Dems are able to “pull ahead”.
If it weren’t for the fact that Clark County is run exclusively by Dems and the setup makes it very easy for them to cheat I’d expect Trump to win.
As it is I feel like it’s 33% to 45% chance he actually secures the EV’s. But I do think DJT will be leading in NV for most of the night and even into the rest of next week before the Dems are able to “pull ahead”.
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 12:30 pm
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:31 pm to Lou Pai
Looks like the "Other" voters (Independent) may be the make or break? 
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:33 pm to GeorgeWest
Biden is a child groper who covers up his son's sex crimes....why do you still support him?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:33 pm to FOREVER LSU 2017
quote:
Looks like the "Other" voters (Independent) may be the make or break?
Nope. Registered dems crossing over is the 2016 Independents.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:33 pm to FOREVER LSU 2017
quote:After projecting the early vote and Election Day vote I came up with these final numbers yesterday for Clark and Washoe. This is my prediction:
Looks like the "Other" voters (Independent) may be the make or break?
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 12:35 pm
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:34 pm to GeorgeWest
quote:
Biden will carry Nevada easily.
What's your definition of easily, just for the record?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:41 pm to Jake88
quote:
Did Hillary carry it easily in 2016 when she won by 27,000 votes? Where are all of the workers living these days? Nevada or back in California?
Which means you just need to flip 13,500 of them.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:53 pm to ROPO
quote:
How does it compare to 2016?
Note that all of these calculations are simply based on party registration, thus crossover and independents (meaningful #) are not being counted. That said, I'm calculating a 45,072 vote edge in total early voting (including mail-in and absentee) for 2016, so about in line with where things stand today.
The difference here is that turnout on election day was 123,763-121,057 in favor of the dems. All the polling data right now suggests the republicans will vastly outnumber the democrats in in-person voting on election day. RidculousHype on here has a great post with polling data discussing this. Should be somewhere between 2-1 and 4-1 for the advantage for republicans on this on election day. Again, this is not taking into account the independents, which broke for Trump in '16 in Nevada, supposedly.
Another way of looking at this:
RidiculousHype posted this polling data from NYT/Sienna:
Let's say 92% of dems don't vote on election day, and let's be conservative and say 75% of republicans.
As of today, we have
366,881 Democrat early voters
320,724 Republican early voters
366,881 ÷ 0.92 = 398,784 Democrat Total Votes across all methods
320,724 ÷ 0.75 = 427,632 Republican Total Votes across all methods
398,784 - 366,881 = 31,903 Democrats expected to vote on election day
427,632 - 320,724 = 106,908 Republicans expected to vote on election day
Once again, this is totally ignoring Independents, which favored Trump in '16 in Nevada. Also, remember, Jorengsen is probably unlikely to get the 3.32% Gary Johnson got in Nevada. Note Hillary won by 27,202 votes over Trump in '16.
It's going to be a dogfight, but Trump seems to be in better shape there than I had thought a couple weeks ago. And if I'm a democrat I'm very worried about Nevada.
ETA: If anyone spots any errors in my math, let me know.
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 12:55 pm
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:56 pm to Lou Pai
Inspiring to see you on this train, mate.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 1:01 pm to NIH
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