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Message
Not understanding the Vegas odds
Posted on 10/24/20 at 1:54 am
Posted on 10/24/20 at 1:54 am
65/35 for Biden right now according to RCP. I've never been more confident in Trump's chances in the post-China flu era than I was last night (he would have won comfortably over Biden if not for COVID). Most of the early voting and party registration data coming out of swing states has been very positive for Trump and the GOP. Outside of expected voter fraud, not sure what I'm missing... the polls should have little weight, and Trump is within the margin of error in most swing states anyway.
Yes I realize the Vegas odds were laughably off for Clinton-Trump.
Yes I realize the Vegas odds were laughably off for Clinton-Trump.
19
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:01 am to Lou Pai
I hope Trump wins like a mfer but Vegas is not in the business of losing. Odds are driven by bets and if you look at all the polls and that’s why you’re betting then I’d imagine that more money is going to Biden right Now which would give him the best odds (and thus less money back per dollar If you bet on him should he win).
This post was edited on 10/24/20 at 2:04 am
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:03 am to Lou Pai
Same. I'm missing something. I guess the white woman vote has swung absurdly left to the point it's over to Vegas? Or the black vote numbers are insane.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:03 am to Lou Pai
The odds aren't their prediction on who will win. The odds are set as such to have an even number of bets on each side.
It doesn't necessarily mean they think Biden will win, that's how they think the public will bet.
It doesn't necessarily mean they think Biden will win, that's how they think the public will bet.
This post was edited on 10/24/20 at 2:04 am
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:05 am to Barstools
It's driven by the betting public putting money on the line.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:06 am to Lou Pai
My understanding is that Vegas doesn’t care to pick the winner or loser rather they want to adjust the odd to get even amounts of money on both sides. In this way they won’t get hammered in the case of an “upset” and they can make the 10% commission on all the bets placed.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:08 am to Lou Pai
Id venture to say its a stupid bet and Vegas will clean up when people put money on biden and then he loses.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:08 am to Lou Pai
Well, I've never been much of a gambler or bettor, but it would seem to me that lulling a bunch of unknowing people into placing bets simply based on the appearance of who the oddsmakers are indicating is likely to win, but the oddsmakers don't necessarily believe their odds to be accurate, Vegas could lure all those people into sure loser sucker bets. Again, that would be aimed at folks who are placing their bets exclusively based on the confidence that the odds themselves instill.
While the smarter people await a very significant movement of the odds at the 11th hour which I foresee happening.
While the smarter people await a very significant movement of the odds at the 11th hour which I foresee happening.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:09 am to TigernMS12
As long as the money down is close on both sides Vegas can’t lose, the vig is the profit.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:13 am to Lou Pai
quote:
65/35 for Biden right now according to RCP.
Fictional odds. You can't make that bet in Vegas. It is illegal to bet on elections in the US.
And, if you won online, I'd imagine you'd have a tough time collecting that bet from online sites.
This post was edited on 10/24/20 at 2:15 am
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:18 am to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
It is illegal to bet on elections in the US.
Well, that's a pretty good point. But that wouldn't preclude one from betting on it offshore. Perhaps utilizing the Vegas odds as factor in considering what bet to place. Yeah no?
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:22 am to davyjones
My one regret on this election if I did most my betting when Trump was at 2.00.
Most bookies in the UK now have him at 3.00 so I’ve lost out in some considerable winnings
Most bookies in the UK now have him at 3.00 so I’ve lost out in some considerable winnings
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:27 am to engvol
All I know is Trump exceeding expectations is a solid bet. That's just me though.
Always bet on Trump. From the get-go.
Always bet on Trump. From the get-go.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:30 am to engvol
quote:
My one regret on this election if I did most my betting when Trump was at 2.00.
Most bookies in the UK now have him at 3.00 so I’ve lost out in some considerable winnings
A lot of attractive odds evaporate when you actually attempt to place a substantial bet - or the online's try to weasel out of paying on a win.
If it is not on established casino boards, I'm not interested. Just my experience/opinion.
This post was edited on 10/24/20 at 2:34 am
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:32 am to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
the online's try to weasel out of paying on a win.
Hey! Weaseling out of things is what separates us from the animals!....well, except the weasel.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:32 am to Lou Pai
quote:
the polls should have little weight
If you were oddsmaker, what metrics are you going to use? They don’t just throw numbers out there.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:35 am to WestSideTiger
Farmer's Almanac weather forecasts for the most consequential voting districts within the most consequential swing states? I kid. But maybe.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:36 am to WestSideTiger
quote:
If you were oddsmaker, what metrics are you going to use?
I'd damn sure study the poll's track record. I'd start with 2016
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:44 am to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
ot of attractive odds evaporate when you actually attempt to place a substantial bet - or the online's try to weasel out of paying on a win.
If it is not on established casino boards, I'm not interested. Just my experience/opinion.
All established British bookmakers let you bet on politics. I could even bet on certain words/phrases to be used in the last debate!
But as everyone should know by now, nowadays bookmakers only take one position and that’s whatever guarantees them a profit. They don’t set odds on opinion etc.
Posted on 10/24/20 at 2:46 am to Barstools
quote:
It doesn't necessarily mean they think Biden will win, that's how they think the public will bet.
This, exactly. The lines are theoretically made to be financially even, which is why they move.
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