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re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
Posted on 9/23/20 at 3:21 pm to DestrehanTiger
Posted on 9/23/20 at 3:21 pm to DestrehanTiger
quote:
That's the point of the argument. You're always going to have to go for two. Why is it smarter to do it later than earlier? People will argue that you have momentum, but there can also be nerves that come into play. Going for 2 with 5 minutes left may feel like a normal play to the offense, and they can relax. Going for 2 with 20 seconds left is the game.
Right, you're definitely gonna have to go for two once, so why do it early? If you don't get it, the game is over (under normal circumstances and barring some weird turnover, since there isn't enough time to score three times). If you kick the XP, then you postpone having to make a play for the game until you absolutely have to. The only thing going for it first ensures is that you know if you've lost the game or not earlier (assuming all things equal, such as making the XP when you do kick it).
quote:
That is the exact reason to go for two early. Going for 2 late doesn't mean you have a better chance to get the conversion.
I'd rather be down 9 with five minutes left knowing I probably should onside kick to increase my win probability than be down 2 with 20 seconds left knowing that even if I get the onside, I probably don't have enough time. Also, going for 2 early gives you the opportunity to get the conversion twice if you want to avoid overtime.
And nobody is arguing (or at least I am not) that going for it later gives you a better chance of converting.
What is your argument of "I'd rather be down 9 with five minutes left than down 2 with 20 seconds left" mean" Those are both results of going for the 2PC first as opposed to later.
I would rather kick the XP and be down 8 (i.e. it's still a one-possession game despite what shel keeps arguing) than be down 9 with not enough time to get the ball back, score, get the ball back again, and score. If you go for the two first and don't get it, you've fricked yourself out of a chance to tie, whereas if you kick the XP early, it's still a one possession game and you can get the ball back with a chance to tie the game.
I feel like I am taking crazy pills with so many people arguing that going for two first is the right/smart play. It makes zero sense to me, and I'm generally a bright guy.
All logic tells me to not go for two until you have to. ETA: and again, my argument is when you are down to your last possessions of the game...i.e. there isn't enough time for you to score three times (or two MORE times as the case may be).
This post was edited on 9/23/20 at 3:23 pm
4
Posted on 9/23/20 at 3:37 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:
I would rather kick the XP and be down 8 (i.e. it's still a one-possession game despite what shel keeps arguing) than be down 9 with not enough time to get the ball back, score, get the ball back again, and score. If you go for the two first and don't get it, you've fricked yourself out of a chance to tie, whereas if you kick the XP early, it's still a one possession game and you can get the ball back with a chance to tie the game.
When you make this point you have to assume you miss the two point conversion after the second td to adequately compare the scenarios. I don't understand why this is so hard to understand.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 3:41 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:
And nobody is arguing (or at least I am not) that going for it later gives you a better chance of converting.
Ok, good. Then we can take the explanation to the next step. Let's use the two outcomes from the two point conversion that we agree you have to attempt at least once and you have an equal chance of making no matter the timing.
1. You fail the 2 pt conversion
No matter when you fail, your chances of winning the game drop drastically. However, if you fail on the second try, your chances of winning are likely 0. You've played out the game assuming you can tie with a score and left yourself little or no time on the clock. The only thing you have accomplished is giving your fans hope. The win probability for the team that failed earlier is higher than the team that failed later. Though it is highly unlikely, they can choose to kick an onside kick right after the fail, they can get a stop and try to score twice by some miracle.
2. You convert the 2 pt conversion
If you converted it on the first try, you now have the option to win the game in regulation with another 2 pt conversion or take the game to overtime with an extra point. If you convert on the second try, your only option is to go into overtime. The win probabilities may be close, but you at least have an option.
quote:
What is your argument of "I'd rather be down 9 with five minutes left than down 2 with 20 seconds left" mean" Those are both results of going for the 2PC first as opposed to later.
What I meant was my preference in scenario 1 where I miss the 2PC. If I miss the 2PC with 5 minutes left and I'm down 9, I have 5 minutes to figure out a way to win. If I kick the XP first, score with 20 seconds left, and miss the 2PC, I now have 20 seconds in which I have to get the onside kick and get enough yards to get in field goal range to win.
ETA: I wanted to add that I enjoy these arguments.
This post was edited on 9/23/20 at 3:51 pm
Posted on 9/23/20 at 4:22 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:
i.e. there isn't enough time for you to score three times (or two MORE times as the case may be).
If you assume this then it doesn't matter what you do. But I don't think that's a fair assumption. You could have a chance at an onsides kick.
The argument to me is very simple. Sometimes you get the two point conversion, in which case an 8 pt deficit is a one possession game. Sometimes you don't get the 2PAT, in which case the 8 pt. deficit is a two possession game.
You gain a strategic advantage by knowing the number of possessions you'll need to tie/win the game. If you kick the PAT first, then it remains unknown.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 5:14 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:Here's the discrepancy IMO, as I touched on in a previous post:
I feel like I am taking crazy pills with so many people arguing that going for two first is the right/smart play. It makes zero sense to me, and I'm generally a bright guy. All logic tells me to not go for two until you have to.
quote:
so why do it early? If you don't get it, the game is over
quote:In both of these examples, you're comparing not getting the 2pt conversion to the chance of getting it later. Think about both of the things you quoted, now to make it apples to apples, compare that to missing the 2pt conversion after the 2nd TD. That is the only way for these comparisons to make any sense.
If you go for the two first and don't get it, you've fricked yourself out of a chance to tie, whereas if you kick the XP early, it's still a one possession game and you can get the ball back with a chance to tie the game.
quote:Well out of 2 shitty spots to be on, I think anyone would take being down 9 with 5 minutes left over down to with 20 seconds left.
What is your argument of "I'd rather be down 9 with five minutes left than down 2 with 20 seconds left" mean"
quote:Again, I'm talking the reality of the situation which is the ONLY thing that matters. The reality, the facts based on the data, is the most likely scenario that would play out means being down 8 is being down 2 possessions. That's a fact, inarguable, it just is so. That fact matters a shite ton more than the theoretical idea that you might be able to tie the game with 1 possession.
(i.e. it's still a one-possession game despite what shel keeps arguing
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