Being down by 9 with 5+ minutes is not a good spot to be, but the point is you're not out of the game.

Being down by 8 and pretending you're 100% down 1 possession like coaches do, and they don't rush things like they were down 2 possessions, and next thing you know, they score with :41 seconds left, missing the 2pt conversion, then are scratching their heads because now they're out of the game with not enough time to catch up, when they could have saved a couple of minutes off the clock had they known they were down by more than 1 possession.

quote:
So you have to assume you only have one more possession (that if you score you can try for two) to work with.

If the scenario is super late in a game and you really only have 1 more possession left after you score to go down 9, I really don't think it matters at all if you go for 2 now or later. Either way, not getting the 2pt conversion loses the game, so not sure why it would matter.

quote:
And being down 8 is definitely a one possession game...not sure what that argument is all about.

Huh? The 2pt conversion success rate is below 50%, you are more likely to be down 2 possessions than 1, why would you think that's a 1 possession game?

1 ...

Report Post

Posted by CocomoLSU

Inside your dome.

Member since Feb 2004

150867 posts

Posted on 9/23/20 at 1:34 pm to shel311

quote:
Being down by 8 and pretending you're 100% down 1 possession

I don't get what this means and you keep saying it. It's not "pretending" to be down one possession. You do know what that means, right? It means that in one possession you can not be down anymore. So if you score and convert the 2PC, you are not losing anymore. That's literally what it means and that's literally a fact.

Obviously the conversion is not guaranteed, but that shouldn't come into play here. It's the chance to continue the game instead of losing during regulation. And if you go for two early and don't get it, you frick yourself later and don't even give yourself THE CHANCE to tie the game because you're now added another possession that you need (which relies on scoring as well).

quote:
then are scratching their heads because now they're out of the game with not enough time to catch up, when they could have saved a couple of minutes off the clock had they known they were down by more than 1 possession.

Your argument seems to hinge upon the "knowing." You say that it's better because you KNOW that you need an additional possession and score. And that shouldn't come into play at all IMO, because we're talking about it being so late in the game that adding an additional possession essentially takes you out of the game and guarantees you a loss. Which is why it's smarter to not go for two until you absolutely have to.

quote:
Huh? The 2pt conversion success rate is below 50%, you are more likely to be down 2 possessions than 1, why would you think that's a 1 possession game?

See above. You and I clearly have a different definition of what a one possession game means.