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FL Voter Trends - 2020 Projection
Posted on 8/28/20 at 8:41 am
Posted on 8/28/20 at 8:41 am
During election years, I like to look at FL's voter registration statistics just to get an idea of where things are trending. I've noticed a trend over the last 3 elections that should give us a baseline projection for the state of FL in 2020.
Since 2008, the Dems have been slowly losing their once large edge in voter registration. Back in 2008, they held a 6.08% advantage over Rs, which is now down to only 1.83%. Interestingly, the election results since 2008 are showing a pattern where the vote result is on average 3.63% less than the Dem registration advantage.
2008: 6.08% advantage, 2.69% Dem win, 3.39% difference
2012: 4.64% advantage, 0.88% Dem win, 3.76% difference
2016: 2.55% advantage, -1.20% Dem loss, 3.75% difference
Using the average difference of 3.63%, the projected election result for FL is:
1.83% current dem advantage, -1.80% Dem loss
With Trump's solid record and lack of enthusiasm for sleepy Joe, this could easily exceed a 3% win for Trump.
Since 2008, the Dems have been slowly losing their once large edge in voter registration. Back in 2008, they held a 6.08% advantage over Rs, which is now down to only 1.83%. Interestingly, the election results since 2008 are showing a pattern where the vote result is on average 3.63% less than the Dem registration advantage.
2008: 6.08% advantage, 2.69% Dem win, 3.39% difference
2012: 4.64% advantage, 0.88% Dem win, 3.76% difference
2016: 2.55% advantage, -1.20% Dem loss, 3.75% difference
Using the average difference of 3.63%, the projected election result for FL is:
1.83% current dem advantage, -1.80% Dem loss
With Trump's solid record and lack of enthusiasm for sleepy Joe, this could easily exceed a 3% win for Trump.
10
Posted on 8/28/20 at 8:48 am to gatorsimz
If you want to use Florida voting, look at Pinellas county. Voters have correctly picked the president for many many decades. 
Posted on 8/28/20 at 8:50 am to gatorsimz
I live in a liberal area in FL (not crazy lib but my county is blue) and I haven’t seen one Biden sign or anything here. During the governors races 2 yrs ago there were Gillum signs everywhere. Still early I guess but I find it odd.
Posted on 8/28/20 at 8:50 am to gatorsimz
Trump will win, no doubt in my mind.
Nov 3rd/4th will be glorious!
Nov 3rd/4th will be glorious!
Posted on 8/28/20 at 8:56 am to jbird7
quote:
I live in a liberal area in FL (not crazy lib but my county is blue)
Hillsborough?
Posted on 8/28/20 at 8:58 am to gatorsimz
What about the folks who moved in from Puerto Rico we heard so much about?
Posted on 8/28/20 at 8:59 am to Wtodd
Orange
This post was edited on 8/28/20 at 9:00 am
Posted on 8/28/20 at 9:02 am to gatorsimz
If we can defeat the fraud, we have Florida.
That stupid Democrat block around Miami needs a flood of federal marshals and election supervisors.
That stupid Democrat block around Miami needs a flood of federal marshals and election supervisors.
Posted on 8/28/20 at 9:05 am to gatorsimz
I live in Central FL. I have not seen one single Biden sign. Not. One. Anecdotal? Yes. But there is no energy for him here at all.
Posted on 8/28/20 at 9:12 am to jbird7
Man
Posted on 8/28/20 at 9:22 am to jbird7
quote:
I live in a liberal area in FL (not crazy lib but my county is blue) and I haven’t seen one Biden sign or anything here. During the governors races 2 yrs ago there were Gillum signs everywhere. Still early I guess but I find it odd.
I live in Tallahassee, I saw my first Biden yard sign this week. I have seen one Biden car sticker this year. Trump stuff is few and far between here but I've seen more than that at least.
This post was edited on 8/28/20 at 9:23 am
Posted on 8/28/20 at 9:24 am to Jake88
quote:
What about the folks who moved in from Puerto Rico we heard so much about?
It's still not making a dent voter registration wise. I think since 2016 Dems have registered like 220k advantage right now.
The OP is correct in the GOP is slowly creeping up outpacing Dems
See this article from Tampa Times
LINK
Posted on 8/28/20 at 9:29 am to Angry Bruce Pearl
I’ve seen quite a few trump bumper stickers here. The good ole auburn baw across the street from me has one.
Posted on 8/28/20 at 9:34 am to gatorsimz
I live on the east central FL coast and see tons of Trump stickers and hats, plus there is a big Trump HQ a few miles from here and it is really busy on the weekends.
The two wildcards that make me nervous:
1 - there were thousands of transplants from Puerto Rico since 2016;
2 - the potential for ballot stuffing/harvesting in the very blue Dade and Broward counties. They will not report results until the rest of the state does in order to determine how many votes they need to swing the state blue.
I'm still confident Trump will win by a bigger margin than the polls indicate - unless massive fraud occurs.
The two wildcards that make me nervous:
1 - there were thousands of transplants from Puerto Rico since 2016;
2 - the potential for ballot stuffing/harvesting in the very blue Dade and Broward counties. They will not report results until the rest of the state does in order to determine how many votes they need to swing the state blue.
I'm still confident Trump will win by a bigger margin than the polls indicate - unless massive fraud occurs.
Posted on 8/28/20 at 9:37 am to gatorsimz
After that fireworks display is there any doubt Trump will carry Florida???
None!
None!
Posted on 10/14/20 at 10:40 am to gatorsimz
Bumping this after today’s Trafalgar poll. They’re saying 2% which is right in line.
Posted on 10/14/20 at 10:48 am to gatorsimz
Is all of this information just false? I saw this, this morning and can’t believe it.
Posted on 10/14/20 at 10:51 am to gatorsimz
No way Biden wins florida or Ohio.
I said it before.
It's up to PA, MI or WI. He will win all others he won in 2016 so he only needs one of those 3. I think he will win MI and WI.
Hell, he's got a shot at MN too.
I said it before.
It's up to PA, MI or WI. He will win all others he won in 2016 so he only needs one of those 3. I think he will win MI and WI.
Hell, he's got a shot at MN too.
Posted on 10/14/20 at 10:53 am to McCaigBro69
Early voting can be ignored. We know that across the country, 65% of democrats plan to vote early or by mail. About 25% of Republicans plan to do the same.
I believe Republicans have outpaced democrats in new voter registrations in FL.
I believe Republicans have outpaced democrats in new voter registrations in FL.
Posted on 10/14/20 at 10:53 am to roadkill
quote:
unless massive fraud occurs.
That's the only way Biden wins.
ONLY WAY
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