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Message
Contact tacing? LOL
Posted on 5/7/20 at 2:13 pm
Posted on 5/7/20 at 2:13 pm
There is no place for contact tracing in a respiratory virus with a lengthy incubation period and extremely low death rate.
Now JBE wants to hire 700 people to contract trace?
They want businesses to have everyone sign in when they enter their building?
What a clusterfrick. These people are the dumbest around.
I would like for someone to rationally explain how contact tracing in this situation would work?
It's impossible. Contact tracing is for a fast-acting, deadly virus like Ebola, where you are racing against the clock.
Who have you come in contact with over the last two weeks? Then, who have those people come in contact with? That figure outpaces 700 contact tracers almost immediately.
Now JBE wants to hire 700 people to contract trace?
They want businesses to have everyone sign in when they enter their building?
What a clusterfrick. These people are the dumbest around.
I would like for someone to rationally explain how contact tracing in this situation would work?
It's impossible. Contact tracing is for a fast-acting, deadly virus like Ebola, where you are racing against the clock.
Who have you come in contact with over the last two weeks? Then, who have those people come in contact with? That figure outpaces 700 contact tracers almost immediately.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 2:14 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
Honestly this starts with the WH & the task force though right? Not trying to defend homey but I htink it's part of "going forward".
Now he likely has not much of a clue how this will get going.
I'm working on a fake name and if they ask me for an id, I'll conveniently not have one. If some don't need it to vote, I won't need it for this purpose either.
Now he likely has not much of a clue how this will get going.
I'm working on a fake name and if they ask me for an id, I'll conveniently not have one. If some don't need it to vote, I won't need it for this purpose either.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 2:15 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
It’s stupid.
The numbers just implausible.
The numbers just implausible.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 2:18 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
quote:
They want businesses to have everyone sign in when they enter their building?
With the same pen
Posted on 5/7/20 at 2:19 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
Its impossible. Even if everyone only comes in contact with 15 people over 10 day incubation period, then you have to track the 15 people they came in contact with and so on down the line.
15 people coming into contact with 15 more = 225. Then those 225 coming into contact with 15 people = 3375. By only the 4th degree of separation, you're talking about over 50,000 people. There's no way to reliably contact trace. Its all bullshite reasons to delay reopening and conning people into staying home rather than have the government intrusion of privacy
ETA: and I feel like coming into contact with only 15 people over the course of the COVID incubation period is a very conservative number because you can come into contact with more than 15 people just in one trip to the grocery store
15 people coming into contact with 15 more = 225. Then those 225 coming into contact with 15 people = 3375. By only the 4th degree of separation, you're talking about over 50,000 people. There's no way to reliably contact trace. Its all bullshite reasons to delay reopening and conning people into staying home rather than have the government intrusion of privacy
ETA: and I feel like coming into contact with only 15 people over the course of the COVID incubation period is a very conservative number because you can come into contact with more than 15 people just in one trip to the grocery store
This post was edited on 5/7/20 at 2:21 pm
Posted on 5/7/20 at 2:19 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The numbers just implausible.
Yep. They will move on down the list of impossible goals.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 2:27 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
This is so blatantly bullshite that I can't believe he has the balls to try it.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 2:29 pm to Tiger Prawn
quote:
because you can come into contact with more than 15 people just in one trip to the grocery store
JBE is a moron. Don’t bring logic into this.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 2:31 pm to tiger91
Not taking up for Trump but it’s my understanding that this is JBE’s requirement to get to Phase 1
Here are WH gating requirements
Unless I am missing something
Here are WH gating requirements
Unless I am missing something
Posted on 5/7/20 at 2:34 pm to LSUJML
Does anyone think that at this point if I get the call that I was inline behind someone who tested positive I am going to self quarantine for 2 weeks?
Contact tracing is a great idea if done early on, at this point it makes no sense
Contact tracing is a great idea if done early on, at this point it makes no sense
Posted on 5/7/20 at 2:35 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
quote:I hope you're joking.
There is no place for contact tracing in a respiratory virus with a lengthy incubation period
Posted on 5/7/20 at 3:39 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
I hope you're joking.
Coupled with a low death rate, I am not. The number of contacts gets too high and the risk is not great.
If you have a differing opinion, please share it.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 4:46 pm to NC_Tigah
If this was HIV and sexual partners, it would make sense. Because of the dangers of the disease and because the number of partners would (presumably) be relatively modest. The numbers are small enough to handle.
Contract tracing doesn’t work here, as shown with those figures, because the disease is already widespread, and you quickly get into the thousands. At that point, you’re telling whole towns to shut down because one person went shopping. Which is what we have now. And it isn’t warranted, because the disease is only a threat to a subset of older and immunodeficient Americans.
You’re better off using your resources to treat and support people who show symptoms that could be Covid-19. And on the other end, doing what you can to support at risk demographics.
Perhaps grocery baskets for the elderly, with a special protocol for ensuring they’ve been decontaminated prior to delivery.
Contract tracing doesn’t work here, as shown with those figures, because the disease is already widespread, and you quickly get into the thousands. At that point, you’re telling whole towns to shut down because one person went shopping. Which is what we have now. And it isn’t warranted, because the disease is only a threat to a subset of older and immunodeficient Americans.
You’re better off using your resources to treat and support people who show symptoms that could be Covid-19. And on the other end, doing what you can to support at risk demographics.
Perhaps grocery baskets for the elderly, with a special protocol for ensuring they’ve been decontaminated prior to delivery.
This post was edited on 5/7/20 at 5:00 pm
Posted on 5/7/20 at 5:26 pm to tiger91
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/29/20 at 11:11 pm
Posted on 5/7/20 at 6:11 pm to LSUJML
quote:
Here are WH gating requirements
Those are not requirements, they are guidelines. Essentially they are recommendations from the federal government to the states on when they believe it is safe to open up. Nothing more.
We are a federalist society, and the states have both the right to manage their intra-state commerce as well as a responsibility to open the state at a reasonable point.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 6:21 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
Let’s say by some dumb luck you are connected to someone who’s positive for Wuhan virus.
You’re forced to quarantine for 14 days. When the quarantine is done you go to work only to learn that your now on another list. Back to quarantine for another 14 days?? And so on....
You’re forced to quarantine for 14 days. When the quarantine is done you go to work only to learn that your now on another list. Back to quarantine for another 14 days?? And so on....
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