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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:09 pm to CaptSpaulding
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:09 pm to CaptSpaulding
LINK (twitter)
TIFWIW... Germany doing what I suggested last week the US should be doing -- doing some random sampling. This is a small n, and some issues with the study. But the results are... interesting.
Now for some more speculation...
TIFWIW... Germany doing what I suggested last week the US should be doing -- doing some random sampling. This is a small n, and some issues with the study. But the results are... interesting.
quote:
Study asked 600 households randomly chosen, 400 were responding and getting tested (1000 people). Current results are based on 500 people.
quote:
14% of those were tested positive for antibodies liked to SARS-CoV2, another 2% were tested positive for a current infection by PCR tests. This would mean 15% of the population have already acquired immunity.
quote:
For comparison: Only 5% had been tested positive any time since the likely outbreak on February 15. This would point to a significant undercount even in the most prominently affected region in Germany. Likewise, case fatality rate would be lower. They measured 0,37%.
Now for some more speculation...
quote:
Interesting side-point: They also think, that increased hygiene may lead to less severe outcomes as the initial virus load is reduced. We have seen similar reasoning especially for healthcare workers recently.
As far as I understood, the reasoning is that larger initial loads are giving the virus a head start against the immune system. Once it is in, it starts to replicate in the throat until it can jump into the lungs. If the immune systems kills it before that jump, nothing happens.
3
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:19 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:I’m going to argue this a lot, but until serological testing can become extremely accurate, or accurate enough that confirmation testing can be done, the testing is going to result an extremely inflated number of positive cases with far more false positives than true positives.
TIFWIW... Germany doing what I suggested last week the US should be doing -- doing some random sampling. This is a small n, and some issues with the study. But the results are... interesting.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 2:25 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:
14% of those were tested positive for antibodies liked to SARS-CoV2, another 2% were tested positive for a current infection by PCR tests. This would mean 15% of the population have already acquired immunity.
This was done in one of the hardest hit areas of Germany. Some simple modeling would probably show that the actual infected total for Germany, as a whole, is well below 15%. At a minimum, this appears to pull the rug out form under the UK paper that estimated that over 50% of the UK had already been infected, as of a couple of weeks ago. Also, the Stanford paper on research that is trying to establish that herd immunity has already be acquired in California.
The paper is in German, so it's hard to tell if they were able to account for false positives in the antibody testing. Regardless, we need a lot more studies like this to get a better picture of what is truly going on in various parts of the world.
Somewhat related, South Korea has now identified 75 patients that have come back with positive tests after being cleared. They are calling these "reactivation" of the virus and not reinfection. It is unclear if this might be biphasic. More widespread antibody testing could determine if this is a real risk or an issue with how SK is conducting testing.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 4:22 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:
TIFWIW... Germany doing what I suggested last week the US should be doing -- doing some random sampling.
Here’s one from Colorado last week in case you haven’t seen it.
LINK
quote:
Of the 986 tests from the first round of blood tests done on March 26th and March 27th, there were 8 positives, 23 “indeterminate” or borderline, and 955 negatives.
ETÀ: This area is not as densely as the hot zones, so additional studies will need to be done of larger groups in other areas to get a better grasp of the asymptomatic population.
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 4:26 pm
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