- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:14 pm to Freight Joker
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:14 pm to Freight Joker
Italy's numbers (if they hold) will be lower than yesterday in both New Cases and Deaths. That is great news for them.
1
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:17 pm to Chromdome35
Just got our first confirmed case in our rural county. It’s an elderly lady
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:23 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Italy Summary
4) UK Summary
5) France Summary
6) Germany Summary
If you would like a graph created that I don't have, just ask and if it's possible I will create it for you.
Due to space constraints on the PT board, I'm only posting a few graphs in the thread, if a consensus emerges of what graphs the PT wants to see in thread without having to go to the tracker, I will gladly change them up.
I am working to create a sheet that compares the US metrics to the other countries metrics. I'll let you all know when that's done and available.
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Italy Summary
4) UK Summary
5) France Summary
6) Germany Summary
If you would like a graph created that I don't have, just ask and if it's possible I will create it for you.
Due to space constraints on the PT board, I'm only posting a few graphs in the thread, if a consensus emerges of what graphs the PT wants to see in thread without having to go to the tracker, I will gladly change them up.
I am working to create a sheet that compares the US metrics to the other countries metrics. I'll let you all know when that's done and available.
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:27 pm to Chromdome35
That's a better trend, but the problem then becomes ... what happens when we drop all restrictions?
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:28 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
What's a better trend? Today isn't final, these numbers will go up quite a bit before the end of the day.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:31 pm to Chromdome35
how are you calculating daily growth? If it's based on total cases, it will drop over time b/c of the denominator...or are you basing it off previous day figure?
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:33 pm to mostbesttigerfanever
Previous day.
If yesterday had 1000 cases and today we add 100 new cases, that would be 10% growth.
If yesterday had 1000 cases and today we add 100 new cases, that would be 10% growth.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:34 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Italy's numbers (if they hold) will be lower than yesterday in both New Cases and Deaths. That is great news for them.
Are we still just eleven days behind them? That would be welcome news.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:35 pm to Chromdome35
what about mortality rate. You can't really base it off of current cases, right? The denominator really needs to be the total of deaths and recoveries; not total cases
I know that would paint this is a much more bleak light, but it's the reality of the matter
I know that would paint this is a much more bleak light, but it's the reality of the matter
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:38 pm to mostbesttigerfanever
I'm following the same formula for the mortality rate as the WHO and CDC use. Total Deaths / Total Cases, Also known as CFR Rate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate
I agree that this is skewed because there are a lot of undiagnosed people who would drive the mortality rate lower. The lag between diagnosis and death also causes it to skew lower than it really is.
I agree that this is skewed because there are a lot of undiagnosed people who would drive the mortality rate lower. The lag between diagnosis and death also causes it to skew lower than it really is.
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:38 pm to mostbesttigerfanever
quote:
The denominator really needs to be the total of deaths and recoveries; not total cases
It would be an bigger misrepresentation than the current number.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:43 pm to mostbesttigerfanever
quote:
I know that would paint this is a much more bleak light, but it's the reality of the matter
I had the same thought a few weeks ago but in this case, recovering takes a lot longer than dying. the deaths/outcomes calculation would show like a 10-15% mortality rate just because it takes so long for someone to be classified as "recovered"
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:54 pm to the808bass
quote:
Are we still just eleven days behind them? That would be welcome news.
I asked this yesterday. Was curious as well. Their slow down for new cases looked like it started on the 21st. If we're still 11 days behind then maybe our slowdown will be around 4/1.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:11 pm to Chromdome35
First, thanks for the compliment. Coming from you that means a lot.
To answer your question, that will be a mess and could be very subjective.
I suspect that first hospitals at capacity will go on diversion, so ambulances will no longer be able to bring patients there, regardless of what the medical need is.
Once the regular hospitals all fill up, they will go to the new temporary hospitals being set up in hotels/convention centers or even the hospital ships in some places.
Then, if those fill up, they will have a waitlist/holding area. If people die in the holding area, that could be a source for the statistics. Otherwise it would be estimates.
On the other hand, if big cities do not allow hospitals to go on diversion, it will be the wild west with ambulances in charge of location selection.
Alternatively, here in the San Jose area, they are setting up a temp hospital in the convention center and want non-COVID patients to go there apparently. I assume to avoid nosocomial spread of CV, but not sure.
One thing that the feds did right, they have asked all elective medical procedures to be postponed. that will free up beds and vents, but not enough to account for the entire surge if it happens.
quote:
I wonder how the then overwhelmed hospitals could even track and report on the "under serviced" cases?
To answer your question, that will be a mess and could be very subjective.
I suspect that first hospitals at capacity will go on diversion, so ambulances will no longer be able to bring patients there, regardless of what the medical need is.
Once the regular hospitals all fill up, they will go to the new temporary hospitals being set up in hotels/convention centers or even the hospital ships in some places.
Then, if those fill up, they will have a waitlist/holding area. If people die in the holding area, that could be a source for the statistics. Otherwise it would be estimates.
On the other hand, if big cities do not allow hospitals to go on diversion, it will be the wild west with ambulances in charge of location selection.
Alternatively, here in the San Jose area, they are setting up a temp hospital in the convention center and want non-COVID patients to go there apparently. I assume to avoid nosocomial spread of CV, but not sure.
One thing that the feds did right, they have asked all elective medical procedures to be postponed. that will free up beds and vents, but not enough to account for the entire surge if it happens.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:18 pm to nerd guy
I am afraid that correlation went out the door when NYC became a hotspot. We reset the "days behind" and may continue to do so as other US hotspots develop in large population centers.
I hope I am wrong as they are starting to see better numbers.
I hope I am wrong as they are starting to see better numbers.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:25 pm to NorCali
quote:
am afraid that correlation went out the door when NYC became a hotspot. We reset the "days behind" and may continue to do so as other US hotspots develop in large population centers.
You are correct. Which points out the fact that the original assertion that we were only 11 days behind was bullshite.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:28 pm to the808bass
quote:
That’s assuming a 16% rate of infection for the whole state.
I have no knowledge of whether that’s a rational assumption to make.
I don't know if anyone does. This infection rate may actually be conservative.
I am starting to worry that we have a bit of false hope from the lack of infection of younger people in China. That group may have better pre-existing immunity from prior exposues to other coronaviruses than the US population of the same age. If that is the case, we may get more serious cases from the younger population here, which we do not need.
Basing that off of the antecedotal reports of this young person died here or there, etc. But it is something to watch in the coming weeks.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:38 pm to NorCali
quote:
I am afraid that correlation went out the door when NYC became a hotspot. We reset the "days behind" and may continue to do so as other US hotspots develop in large population centers.
I hope I am wrong as they are starting to see better numbers.
yea i kind of agree. I'm curious how long it takes Washington to slow down. Not sure when they did a stay in place but when i looked earlier it looked like they were still going up pretty quickly with new cases.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:50 pm to NorCali
quote:
I don't know if anyone does. This infection rate may actually be conservative.
I am starting to worry that we have a bit of false hope from the lack of infection of younger people in China. That group may have better pre-existing immunity from prior exposues to other coronaviruses than the US population of the same age. If that is the case, we may get more serious cases from the younger population here, which we do not need.
Basing that off of the antecedotal reports of this young person died here or there, etc. But it is something to watch in the coming weeks.
I hadn't thought of that, but it does make sense. I wonder if they gave out a vaccine for MERS / SARS.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 2:12 pm to mmcgrath
There’s no known pharmacological treatment for SARS that I can find.
Page 70 of 331
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News