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Started By
Message
re: US Chinese Virus Tracker - 466,299 Cases, 16,686 Deaths, 26,104 Recovered (4/10/2020)
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:28 am to Homesick Tiger
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:28 am to Homesick Tiger
quote:
More people will be murdered in Chicago the next three nights than the number of people who have died from the virus the last two weeks in the U.S. much less Chicago but for some reason no one gives a shite.
Think about that, considering all the attention the media is directing to one and not the other.
It's almost like MSM Propaganda has an agenda...
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:30 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:The CFR? Yes. As I've been saying for two weeks.
So you're expecting this to be about 4 times as bad as normal flu?
The caveat being most folks will not get as sick as they would with the flu, if they get sick at all.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:32 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
The caveat being most folks will not get as sick as they would with the flu, if they get sick at all.
Gotcha. So more deaths (4x), but less hsopitalizations.
I only say that because assuming the the flu kills 34,000 people as it did last year, your projection would be in the 136k range for deaths?
This post was edited on 3/7/20 at 7:40 am
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:39 am to NYNolaguy1
Reading comprehension is not your strong suit.
This post was edited on 3/7/20 at 7:41 am
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:41 am to IslandBuckeye
quote:
Reading comprehension is not your strong suit.
Sorry I am dumb you will have to enlighten me.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:45 am to Boatshoes
quote:
Observed mortality 4.73%.
He has to use observed because the CDC said yesterday that the mortality rate is more like 0.01% - 1%.
The CDC STATED there are likely 100s of mild cases that don't even get tested and RECOVER without even knowing they're infected.
You are being INCREDIBLY irresponsible trying to stoke fear here everyday. I encourage everyone reading this to research for yourself and listen to the CDC and not the news trying to work our country into hysteria.
Why don't you report the Flu Deaths in America so far in 2020?
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reporting that 4,800 people had died and 87,000 people had been hospitalized so far this year.
Stop panicking everyone. You're fine!!
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:54 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:At this point we know the virus deadly for elderly with underlying health problems. To healthy people this virus might only present the symptoms of allergies acting up.
So more deaths (4x), but less hsopitalizations.
The only people going to the doctor are those with severe like flu symptoms. You cannot determine the mortality rate unless you know the total number of those with the virus.
But we will never know that number because many people with the virus show little to no symptoms.
On paper the death rate appears high but in reality it is much much lower.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:56 am to BeNotDeceivedGal6_7
quote:
The CDC STATED there are likely 100s of mild cases that don't even get tested and RECOVER without even knowing they're infected.
Did you notice the word "likely" in that statement?
You know what that means? That means that's speculation. Not to say that it is unfounded, but we've only tested about 2,000 people in this country so far.
Take a look at this...
China Cannot Explain Death of ‘Cured’ Coronavirus Patient
LINK
"The death of 36-year-old Li Liang prompted clinics across the city to stop discharging patients, while hospitals in other parts of China are reporting an unsettling number of relapses and re-infections."
This post was edited on 3/7/20 at 8:00 am
Posted on 3/7/20 at 8:02 am to Boatshoes
quote:
Cannot Explain Death
So they don’t know if Corona? You speculating?
Posted on 3/7/20 at 8:04 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:Right.
So more deaths (4x), but less hsopitalizations.
I only say that because assuming the the flue kills 34,000 people as it did last year, your projection would be in the 136k range for deaths?
That is possible. Anticipation is we will see far fewer cases though.
That gets at effective contagiousness for CV vs flu. Initial calculations of CV contagiousness (R0) were based on spread of symptomatic cases. Early on, asymptomatic transmission was severely underestimated. So R0 assumptions were/are inflated.
I'd be surprised if we don't see significant reworking of CV R0 values.
Meanwhile, the presumption is testing, isolation, and control can limit case numbers to fewer than typify flu outbreaks.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 8:16 am to Boatshoes
Can we get a flu tracker on here as well?
Posted on 3/7/20 at 8:20 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Right.
That is possible. Anticipation is we will see far fewer cases though.
That gets at effective contagiousness for CV vs flu. Initial calculations of CV contagiousness (R0) were based on spread of symptomatic cases. Early on, asymptomatic transmission was severely underestimated. So R0 assumptions were/are inflated.
I'd be surprised if we don't see significant reworking of CV R0 values.
Meanwhile, the presumption is testing, isolation, and control can limit case numbers to fewer than typify flu outbreaks.
I tend to agree with this assessment, though those CFR and R0 numbers are going to be dependent on people getting tested, something the CDC has botched so far.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 8:21 am to Boatshoes
Jeez this guy is a fear monger
Posted on 3/7/20 at 8:24 am to Boatshoes
quote:It is like you have a short term memory impediment.
"The death of 36-year-old Li Liang prompted clinics across the city to stop discharging patients, while hospitals in other parts of China are reporting an unsettling number of relapses and re-infections."
Do you not remember discussing this?
Once again, unless COVID-19 is different from other viruses, recovery confers immunity.
Got it?
If somehow that is not the case, then vaccination will be useless. "Reinfection" is dubious news, from a dubious source, with dubious resources, which we know have arrived at dubious conclusions in the past. E.g., COVID-19 has gone airborne in China.
ChiComs claim this episode "prompted clinics across the city to stop discharging patients." Why?
Why, if this were a reinfection, would it make sense to delay discharge of patients who are recovered from infection? It wouldn't. China knows this was a case of unrecognized ongoing infection.
.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 8:30 am to NYNolaguy1
Read the post below yours.
I assumed from reading your post that you were on the verge of panic. Apologies if I misread.
We need more data. Our current sample size is not adequate. The USA is not going to suffer as much as third world country with poor health care, infrastructure, and lack of leadership. I am concerned but not panicked. Common sense goes a long way in staying safe.
I assumed from reading your post that you were on the verge of panic. Apologies if I misread.
We need more data. Our current sample size is not adequate. The USA is not going to suffer as much as third world country with poor health care, infrastructure, and lack of leadership. I am concerned but not panicked. Common sense goes a long way in staying safe.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 8:30 am to Boatshoes
quote:
The CDC STATED
So do you have a formula for when we SHOULD listen to the CDC and when we shouldn't?
Posted on 3/7/20 at 8:33 am to BeNotDeceivedGal6_7
The CDC figure includes pneumonia.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 8:37 am to BeNotDeceivedGal6_7
The CDC also stated that the people MOST at risk are people with severe pre existing conditions like COPD, Congenital Heart Failure, Kidney disease, heart disease, AIDS, etc.
When asked about multi generational homes the CDC said just like with the flu, if a family member is sick, keep them away from other family members.
When asked if the sick people needed to be quarantined in another home they said NO. They can just stay in another part of the home. Clean surfaces, wash hands and clothes, just like with the flu.
When asked about multi generational homes the CDC said just like with the flu, if a family member is sick, keep them away from other family members.
When asked if the sick people needed to be quarantined in another home they said NO. They can just stay in another part of the home. Clean surfaces, wash hands and clothes, just like with the flu.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 8:38 am to IslandBuckeye
quote:
Read the post below yours.
Ok
quote:
because the CDC said yesterday that the mortality rate is more like 0.01% - 1%.
Thats a wide range. There were 34,000 deaths last year attributed to the flu, roughly killing 0.14% of patients. So they are predicting on the low end a normal flu to killing almost 7 times that figure on the high end, or about 250,000 people - not an insignificant figure.
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