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Started By
Message
NET vs Rankings vs Common Sense
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:04 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:04 pm
Tourney Talk ONLY
Hopefully a serious ? the Baord can answer.
I follow Lunardi and his Bracketology etc I get some of the NET results especially using Quad 1 and Quad 2 losses etc.
My confusion: LSU loses 5 of 7, I get it, we should drop a few lines to the 7-8-9 lines right?
Duke drops 2 of 3, a 22 point loss and a Loss to Wake with a sole win over Notre Dame, but they simply don't MOVE anywhere. Stay on the 2 line! Villanova has won 5 straight in the Big East and tays put on the 3 line.
Can anyone explain this to me?
Hopefully a serious ? the Baord can answer.
I follow Lunardi and his Bracketology etc I get some of the NET results especially using Quad 1 and Quad 2 losses etc.
My confusion: LSU loses 5 of 7, I get it, we should drop a few lines to the 7-8-9 lines right?
Duke drops 2 of 3, a 22 point loss and a Loss to Wake with a sole win over Notre Dame, but they simply don't MOVE anywhere. Stay on the 2 line! Villanova has won 5 straight in the Big East and tays put on the 3 line.
Can anyone explain this to me?
4
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:07 pm to Rolling Stoned
Simple. Name recognition and the perception of the team sometimes overrides the actual record.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:11 pm to TigerLunatik
TL That explains the Rankings (I get that) But how does a algorithm have a bias?
If this were football, people would be losing their minds?
I don't really care that much, but if you look at Lunardi's brackets, the West bracket is a cakewalk vs the East bracket. We are currently 8 in the East with Florida on the 9 spot in the West Gladly trade positions with them!
If this were football, people would be losing their minds?
I don't really care that much, but if you look at Lunardi's brackets, the West bracket is a cakewalk vs the East bracket. We are currently 8 in the East with Florida on the 9 spot in the West Gladly trade positions with them!
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:12 pm to Rolling Stoned
I was speaking only about Lunardi. If you're asking about NET, defensive efficiency is probably killing us.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:14 pm to TigerLunatik
OK gotcha! Just maybe assumed Lunardi was using NET numbers and ratings to rank.
FYI if I am Villanova with 2 titles of late and I cant get any Love over the Dukies, who are THE most overrated team in the country at #6.
FYI if I am Villanova with 2 titles of late and I cant get any Love over the Dukies, who are THE most overrated team in the country at #6.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:17 pm to Rolling Stoned
quote:
But how does a algorithm have a bias?
It’s all advanced metrics. Duke has consistently been near the top of defense and offense efficiencies, so one bad night won’t affect them as much. Also strong wins, and generally better losses. LSU needs to step up defensively to see a significant jump in NET.
Lunardi is just guessing on locations. Since location for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds comes into play for top four seeds, and the East coast is usually stronger than the West, you get some unbalanced regions.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:21 pm to Rolling Stoned
I’m not complaining. Actually, I’m surprised we’ve held on as strong as we have.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:25 pm to KingofthePoint
Have to hope we get a 7 or 10 seed. Don't want any part of that 8/9 line.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:48 pm to Rolling Stoned
Be sure to look at when the bracket was updated. The newest Lunardi bracket that I see is this one from Monday. So that was before some of the outcomes you are talking about.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 8:51 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:00 pm to Rolling Stoned
quote:
Duke drops 2 of 3, a 22 point loss and a Loss to Wake with a sole win over Notre Dame, but they simply don't MOVE anywhere. Stay on the 2 line! Villanova has won 5 straight in the Big East and tays put on the 3 line.
It's money.....Duke moves the money needle
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:36 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
Have to hope we get a 7 or 10 seed. Don't want any part of that 8/9 line.
Agreed. But I'd be fine with an 8/9 if we're in San Diego State's bracket. They'll be the easiest 1 seed to knock off.
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:13 am to TigerLunatik
quote:
I was speaking only about Lunardi. If you're asking about NET, defensive efficiency is probably killing us.
There's no "probably" about it. It is! That, and the fact that even when they win LSU rarely get a margin of victory boost because most wins are very close. LSU is ranked #40 in the Kenpom metrics despite (1) having the No.2 offense and (2) a decent SOS (better than all but 3 of the KP top ten teams). Unfortunately, your overall efficiency plummets when you have the almost the worst defense of all major conf. teams (only 4 major conf. teams have a worse defense than LSU: Miami, SMU, Vandy, Northwestern)
Just so frustrating to think that even though LSU has not had a "bad" season by any means, it could be SO much better if they were even just an average defensive team. Iowa is probably the most comproable team to LSU in the Kenpom rankings in terms of offensive/defensive splits They are 6 on offense and 90 on defense. 90 is not a good number defensively (for a power conf. program). But taken together with their offense even THAT is enough to have them ranked nearly 20 spots higher than LSU
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:22 am to Jack Crevalle
I was going to post this before I saw that you did. I've seen sdsu play a few times, and watched most of their game against air farce. I didn't see a player on either team that would get minutes for us. Wade would kill for that matchup if we got stuck in the 8-9 game.
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