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Am I the only one who thinks the market's reaction to the coronavirus outbreak is...
Posted on 1/30/20 at 10:06 am
Posted on 1/30/20 at 10:06 am
...way overdone?
- 8,000 confirmed cases in an area of over 20 million people with 170 deaths as of 9:30 AM, CST meaning the mortality rate, so far, is approximately 2.1%
- SARS had a mortality rate of approximately 10%
- 100% of the deaths are in China and almost all of the deaths were very old, very young or weak immune system persons
- only 4 U.S. states have confirmed cases and all of the cases are people who recently returned from China
Is this a media driven "crisis"??
- 8,000 confirmed cases in an area of over 20 million people with 170 deaths as of 9:30 AM, CST meaning the mortality rate, so far, is approximately 2.1%
- SARS had a mortality rate of approximately 10%
- 100% of the deaths are in China and almost all of the deaths were very old, very young or weak immune system persons
- only 4 U.S. states have confirmed cases and all of the cases are people who recently returned from China
Is this a media driven "crisis"??
Posted on 1/30/20 at 10:23 am to LSURussian
quote:
Is this a media driven "crisis"??
"Don't look at the fact that the dems are getting pantsed in the impeachment trial, look at this"
Posted on 1/30/20 at 11:11 am to Thib-a-doe Tiger
I just found this article about the "regular" flu in the U.S.
American cases of flu so far this season:
"Regular" flu: 15,000,000
Coronavirus: 5
American deaths so far this flu season:
"Regular" flu: 8,200
Coronavirus flu: 0
"Coronavirus is spreading--but the flu is a greater threat to Americans"
quote:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that so far this season, there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses for the 2019-2020 season, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths in the U.S.
American cases of flu so far this season:
"Regular" flu: 15,000,000
Coronavirus: 5
American deaths so far this flu season:
"Regular" flu: 8,200
Coronavirus flu: 0
"Coronavirus is spreading--but the flu is a greater threat to Americans"
This post was edited on 1/30/20 at 11:20 am
Posted on 1/30/20 at 11:29 am to LSURussian
It is being hyped by media for sure. As far as market reaction, it was just an excuse. The market would have found something else. The rally was getting over extended and the virus news provided a catalyst for a small correction.
Posted on 1/30/20 at 11:36 am to LSURussian
I agree the virus fear is way overblown BUT the market is very sensitive at these valuations and it is discerning that such a small crisis is having the impact that it has.
It is scary to think what the market would do if some central bank tightened or some war broke out or if Trump was removed from office or something like that.
This reminds me of 2000---I hope that does not happen again!!!
It is scary to think what the market would do if some central bank tightened or some war broke out or if Trump was removed from office or something like that.
This reminds me of 2000---I hope that does not happen again!!!
Posted on 1/30/20 at 11:36 am to LSURussian
I think the market reaction is due to the largest middle class population in the world under a quarantine...during their busiest spending period of the year.
Probably a bit exaggerated, but in recent years the reactions for minor events have been steep.
Probably a bit exaggerated, but in recent years the reactions for minor events have been steep.
Posted on 1/30/20 at 11:36 am to LSURussian
Who is going to make all of our cheap Chinese crap if all of the workers are on lock down?
Posted on 1/30/20 at 1:38 pm to LSURussian
quote:I don't think it is a crisis anywhere except possibly China at this point.
Is this a media driven "crisis"??
The media coverage I've seen has been pretty fact based.
Posted on 1/30/20 at 1:55 pm to PearlJam
quote:The media created "crisis" as I refer to it was demonstrated a little while ago when CNBC broke into their program to report that a first case of human-to-human transmittal of the corona virus has been identified in the U.S. The reporter was almost breathless as she reported this "frightening" news.
The media coverage I've seen has been pretty fact based.
The fact is over 15,000,000 cases of the regular flu has been identified just in the U.S. this flu season and everyone of those 15,000,000 cases have been from human-to-human transmittal.
Posted on 1/30/20 at 2:00 pm to LSURussian
Economic growth was lower than predicted... Plus Coronavirus.
I am investing in canned goods, ammo, and a seed stock this week. It may be time to upgrade generators and get a large storage bin for gas and diesel. I will reevaluate the market later in February when I have some cash.
I am investing in canned goods, ammo, and a seed stock this week. It may be time to upgrade generators and get a large storage bin for gas and diesel. I will reevaluate the market later in February when I have some cash.
Posted on 1/30/20 at 2:03 pm to yatesdog38
quote:
I am investing in canned goods, ammo, and a seed stock this week.
Posted on 1/30/20 at 2:24 pm to LSURussian
The market's reaction overdone? I didn't think the market even reacted much at all. Basically traded sideways or slight decline with a return to average volatility from abnormally low.
You cite the medical analysis of the virus, but markets aren't about medicine, they are about economics. China is a key player in the world economy, its growth has slowed to multi-decade lows, and they had to quarantine 50 million people. In just a couple of weeks, the epidemic has surpassed SARS total which took months. While not as deadly as SARS, it is still far more deadly than the regular flu. That scares people, and makes people want to avoid catching it by avoiding interacting with other people...meaning less economic activity. Oil has steadily fallen on top of all of this due to reduced demand expectations.
Way overdone? not at all.
You cite the medical analysis of the virus, but markets aren't about medicine, they are about economics. China is a key player in the world economy, its growth has slowed to multi-decade lows, and they had to quarantine 50 million people. In just a couple of weeks, the epidemic has surpassed SARS total which took months. While not as deadly as SARS, it is still far more deadly than the regular flu. That scares people, and makes people want to avoid catching it by avoiding interacting with other people...meaning less economic activity. Oil has steadily fallen on top of all of this due to reduced demand expectations.
Way overdone? not at all.
Posted on 1/30/20 at 2:33 pm to rotrain
quote:Nothing that I've seen or read supports that statement.
it is still far more deadly than the regular flu.
Posted on 1/30/20 at 2:35 pm to LSURussian
Transportation both within and to China will be significantly lower for at least one fiscal quarter, maybe more. That will reverberate through the Chinese markets which makes up a good proportion of world GDP.
Easy example:
China travel declines due to virus keeping people at home
China is a big part of Trip.com's market
Trip's revenues and stock price go down
Side note: I was in Thailand last week. At the airport there, about 60% of people were wearing masks (which don't do anything but that's another story). When I got to Atlanta, 0% of people were wearing masks. So the fear is real in Asia. Fear is enough to prevent travel.
Easy example:
China travel declines due to virus keeping people at home
China is a big part of Trip.com's market
Trip's revenues and stock price go down
Side note: I was in Thailand last week. At the airport there, about 60% of people were wearing masks (which don't do anything but that's another story). When I got to Atlanta, 0% of people were wearing masks. So the fear is real in Asia. Fear is enough to prevent travel.
This post was edited on 1/30/20 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 1/30/20 at 2:42 pm to LSURussian
If you have some sort of anti-media bias or agenda, or don't believe the official stats, or have some other reason for not agreeing with the available data, then maybe.
But its straight from the WHO and CDC's mouth. Fatality rate is 2-3% for coronavirus, <.01% from seasonal flu.
intermediary link, sources at the bottom of page....
LINK /
But its straight from the WHO and CDC's mouth. Fatality rate is 2-3% for coronavirus, <.01% from seasonal flu.
intermediary link, sources at the bottom of page....
LINK /
Posted on 1/30/20 at 2:51 pm to rotrain
Serious question--how do they know what the fatality rate is for this strain of Coronavirus??
Posted on 1/30/20 at 2:52 pm to rotrain
quote:The "official stats" are still only estimates as your own link specifies.
or don't believe the official stats,
And even then it says, "the national (China) mortality rate drops to 0.3%." That's not "far more deadly than the regular flu" as you put it.
quote:I do. I believe the mainstream media ZERO. I have worked with and for the MSM long enough to know they don't exist to sell accurate information.
If you have some sort of anti-media bias
They sell advertising.
And the best way to sell more advertising is by frightening readers and listeners even when what they report is inaccurate.
They have worked hard to earn my distrust.
But if you choose to believe whatever the media prints or says, that's okay with me, too.
Posted on 1/30/20 at 4:25 pm to LSURussian
The market is in complete hysteria! We hit lows not seen since January 7th.
Posted on 1/30/20 at 5:22 pm to LSURussian
Reaction? The virus is bullshite fear porn. Market SOARED at end of day. Guaranteed to only be flat even when bombs dropping and WWIII about to start.
Amazon up to 15% HIGHER immediately in after market.
Fed dumped another $78 BILLION into market today. More pumped into market in the last two months than the original 700 Billion from the fake recession in 2008-09.
Stocks NEVER going down in our lifetimes Again.
Amazon up to 15% HIGHER immediately in after market.
Fed dumped another $78 BILLION into market today. More pumped into market in the last two months than the original 700 Billion from the fake recession in 2008-09.
Stocks NEVER going down in our lifetimes Again.
Posted on 1/30/20 at 6:43 pm to LSURussian
I think there is a legit reason to worry. One of my suppliers from China already mentioned delays because of the virus and I'm sure there are more on the way. If we keep seeing cities shut down, we'll see some major disruptions in the supply chains for more global retailers.
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