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Message

I've watched most of Oklahoma's games this year
Posted on 12/26/19 at 8:38 pm
Posted on 12/26/19 at 8:38 pm
My wife is a graduate of a Big 12 school and I live in Austin, so I watch a lot of Big 12 football. Here's what I've seen (keep in mind I'm a huge college football fan, but not a coach):
- Their defensive improvement is real. Having said that, they went from absolutely awful to just average. The biggest compliment I can give them is they play fast. They fly around but are susceptible to misdirection and their secondary has absolutely no one with ball skills. Our receivers should burn them all night, but I think our secret weapon is Joe pulling the ball on a zone read. If our RBs can get going, we can use their aggressiveness to our advantage to get easy first downs. Kenneth Murray is by far their best defender.
- They run a power spread offense this year. Everything out of the shotgun, usually one man in motion across the formation. They run a lot of the stuff we've seen all year - RPO based game.
- The offense is still good but has taken a step back from the last 2 seasons. Their primary play is the zone read, with play-action and RPO's built off it. We all know who Jalen Hurts is and the things he does really well. He's the same cat. He will be a threat to run the football and improvise. All of his passes are either short curls, WR screens, or him chucking it deep. It certainly won't be the most complex attack we've seen this year, but they are efficient. They need Hurts to create plays with his legs for this offense to have any shot though.
- CeeDee Lamb is an absolute dog. He can hang with any receiver in the country, including our own and Bama's. He and Hurts are by far their best players.
- They have solid line play but lack top-end talent there. I'm not worried about our offensive line at all. Our defensive line needs to show up to play and create plays in the backfield to prevent Hurts from picking up big gains with his legs.
- LSU truly outclasses them. This is not hubris over our conference or a false narrative. LSU is objectively a more talented overall team in every facet. However, they have enough big-time players that we need to play well or they can sneak upon us. This team is closer to the Florida/Auburn level than Missippi State/A&M.
- They will absolutely use trick plays. Flea flickers, reverses, WR pass, you name it - Lincoln has dialed it up. I would expect they try to create a big play early to seize the momentum and build hope on their sideline.
- After the first game of the season (a win over Houston), they interviewed Jalen. He had his typical game and was being discussed as a Heisman candidate. He seemed absolutely pissed and just kept saying they had to be better - the team needed to get better. He spent 3 years around Bama and saw the talent level he had around him. 1 game in at OU, he knew things were different.
- Their special teams are solid. I think their kicker is perfect on the year. It won't lose them the game in all likelihood.
I'm taking LSU 47-31 with one of those TDs coming in garbage time. Saturday can't come soon enough
- Their defensive improvement is real. Having said that, they went from absolutely awful to just average. The biggest compliment I can give them is they play fast. They fly around but are susceptible to misdirection and their secondary has absolutely no one with ball skills. Our receivers should burn them all night, but I think our secret weapon is Joe pulling the ball on a zone read. If our RBs can get going, we can use their aggressiveness to our advantage to get easy first downs. Kenneth Murray is by far their best defender.
- They run a power spread offense this year. Everything out of the shotgun, usually one man in motion across the formation. They run a lot of the stuff we've seen all year - RPO based game.
- The offense is still good but has taken a step back from the last 2 seasons. Their primary play is the zone read, with play-action and RPO's built off it. We all know who Jalen Hurts is and the things he does really well. He's the same cat. He will be a threat to run the football and improvise. All of his passes are either short curls, WR screens, or him chucking it deep. It certainly won't be the most complex attack we've seen this year, but they are efficient. They need Hurts to create plays with his legs for this offense to have any shot though.
- CeeDee Lamb is an absolute dog. He can hang with any receiver in the country, including our own and Bama's. He and Hurts are by far their best players.
- They have solid line play but lack top-end talent there. I'm not worried about our offensive line at all. Our defensive line needs to show up to play and create plays in the backfield to prevent Hurts from picking up big gains with his legs.
- LSU truly outclasses them. This is not hubris over our conference or a false narrative. LSU is objectively a more talented overall team in every facet. However, they have enough big-time players that we need to play well or they can sneak upon us. This team is closer to the Florida/Auburn level than Missippi State/A&M.
- They will absolutely use trick plays. Flea flickers, reverses, WR pass, you name it - Lincoln has dialed it up. I would expect they try to create a big play early to seize the momentum and build hope on their sideline.
- After the first game of the season (a win over Houston), they interviewed Jalen. He had his typical game and was being discussed as a Heisman candidate. He seemed absolutely pissed and just kept saying they had to be better - the team needed to get better. He spent 3 years around Bama and saw the talent level he had around him. 1 game in at OU, he knew things were different.
- Their special teams are solid. I think their kicker is perfect on the year. It won't lose them the game in all likelihood.
I'm taking LSU 47-31 with one of those TDs coming in garbage time. Saturday can't come soon enough
Posted on 12/26/19 at 8:52 pm to tlsu15
Solid post.
The key is Hurts. Contain him, and Lamb can't hurt us as much. As long as LSU takes care of the football, then the offense will flourish.
The key is Hurts. Contain him, and Lamb can't hurt us as much. As long as LSU takes care of the football, then the offense will flourish.
Posted on 12/26/19 at 8:55 pm to LSUChamps03
I agree with that
They do play down to their competition and they’ve been the best team on the field in every game
I’m curious how they respond when they aren’t.
Part of me is nervous because it’s their 4th playoff trip and they are 0-3. Just the law of averages tells you Lincoln will get one eventually and have the balls bounce his way.
Hope it’s not this year
They do play down to their competition and they’ve been the best team on the field in every game
I’m curious how they respond when they aren’t.
Part of me is nervous because it’s their 4th playoff trip and they are 0-3. Just the law of averages tells you Lincoln will get one eventually and have the balls bounce his way.
Hope it’s not this year
Posted on 12/26/19 at 8:57 pm to tlsu15
Good analysis and I agree with pretty much every word you wrote.
Posted on 12/26/19 at 8:57 pm to mtntiger
One dynamic wide receiver isnt gonna get you darvwith our secondary. I do think Jalen will make some plays with his feet but it will not be nearly enough to keep it close. Go Tigers!!
Posted on 12/26/19 at 9:05 pm to Magicmikeforlsu
Yes, agree with the post. But, I think the key will be Jalen. If OU has sustained long drives, not a good sign. Keeps Burrow off the field, wears down the D.
Also, Hurts physically is a beast in the lower body..will be hard to stop as he is a powerful back.
We stop Hurts, we win. We let him roam, it will be a long night!
Also, Hurts physically is a beast in the lower body..will be hard to stop as he is a powerful back.
We stop Hurts, we win. We let him roam, it will be a long night!
Posted on 12/26/19 at 9:09 pm to tlsu15
Agree with most of this. Except the part where you seemed to imply that Hurts was even close to the same caliber as Lamb. Lamb and Humphrey are above average OU players based on the standard of OU offense for the past several years, but we're significantly below our average at just about every other position. This is not your typical unstoppable OU offense.
Also, it's an exaggeration to call this defense average. It's below average for a CFP team, but certainly above average relative to the rest of the country. Unfortunately we only have about 3 players that undoubtedly belong on a CFP defense, and one of those was Ronnie Perkins.
Also, it's an exaggeration to call this defense average. It's below average for a CFP team, but certainly above average relative to the rest of the country. Unfortunately we only have about 3 players that undoubtedly belong on a CFP defense, and one of those was Ronnie Perkins.
Posted on 12/26/19 at 9:17 pm to dallastiger55
quote:
Part of me is nervous because it’s their 4th playoff trip and they are 0-3. Just the law of averages tells you Lincoln will get one eventually and have the balls bounce his way.
Define this “law.”
There is no such thing as “being due.” It is possible that their “average” is what we have seen so far, which is falling in the playoff. They are 2-5 in their last seven bowl games, and 9-10 since the 2000 season. While LSU is 4-3 and 12-7 in bowls over those same spans.
Posted on 12/26/19 at 9:17 pm to NYSooner
quote:
Also, it's an exaggeration to call this defense average. It's below average for a CFP team, but certainly above average relative to the rest of the country.
I mean if you are including all schools - sure. But that's not really the point as most Group of 5 programs can't even begin to compete.
To put things into perspective, Oklahoma ranks 34th this year in Defensive S&P. LSU has already played 5 teams ranked higher than that. The closest is A&M at 26 and we put 50 on them.
Oklahoma ranks 4th in Offensive S&P (LSU is 1st), which is insane because this is a "down year" for the offense.
The Sooners are still very much an offensive-minded team.
Posted on 12/26/19 at 9:17 pm to tlsu15
Reasons I'm confident for this game:
We can score a ton of points.
We're rested.
Hurts is one-dimensional and does not scare me throwing consistently.
Our D has improved since Bama game.
We can score a ton of points.
We're rested.
Hurts is one-dimensional and does not scare me throwing consistently.
Our D has improved since Bama game.
Posted on 12/26/19 at 9:25 pm to tlsu15
quote:
I mean if you are including all schools - sure. But that's not really the point as most Group of 5 programs can't even begin to compete.
To put things into perspective, Oklahoma ranks 34th this year in Defensive S&P. LSU has already played 5 teams ranked higher than that. The closest is A&M at 26 and we put 50 on them.
Oklahoma ranks 4th in Offensive S&P (LSU is 1st), which is insane because this is a "down year" for the offense.
The Sooners are still very much an offensive-minded team.
Sure, LSU's offense is much better than OU's defense. Nobody is arguing that.
This post was edited on 12/26/19 at 9:26 pm
Posted on 12/26/19 at 9:28 pm to tlsu15
Kenneth Murray is really, really good player
Posted on 12/26/19 at 9:29 pm to dallastiger55
The law of averages means little. Buffalo went to four straight Super Bowls and lost them all. We lost 8 straight to Bama when we had similar talent. You have to show up and play.
Posted on 12/26/19 at 9:31 pm to tlsu15
This was a great post! Thanks for the breakdown.
Posted on 12/26/19 at 9:39 pm to NYSooner
quote:
Sure, LSU's offense is much better than OU's defense. Nobody is arguing that.
My point was more that while Oklahoma's defense is better, I still wouldn't consider it good.
The three teams in front of you in efficiency ratings are Duke, Miami, and Boise State. The three behind you are Iowa State, Temple, and Tennessee.
That's why I called the defense average, which you took offense to.
Oklahoma has been carried by their offense the past 3 seasons. This season they are a more balanced team, but the offense is still responsible for a disproportionately large amount of your success.
Posted on 12/26/19 at 9:43 pm to tlsu15
Way too many words in this thread.
Contain Hurts (remember Louisville?)
We win by a million
Contain Hurts (remember Louisville?)
We win by a million
Posted on 12/26/19 at 10:05 pm to tigerfootball10
I feel like that would be a competitive game.
Posted on 12/26/19 at 10:11 pm to tlsu15
quote:I don't get this new lingo. When I was growing up, the last thing you wanted to be was a dog or goat.
CeeDee Lamb is an absolute dog.
Also, get off my lawn.
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