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So how are we all feeling about GDP numbers tomorrow? Can we keep it growing over 2% ?
Posted on 10/29/19 at 2:23 pm
Posted on 10/29/19 at 2:23 pm
WSJ's survey has a consensus pretty close to this GDPNow (GDPNow says 1.7, WSJ says 1.8%), including a 1.6 from Moody's & 2.1 from S&P.
Some go as low as 1.2, which would be a bit shocking and put us below 2% year-over-year compared to 2018's Q3.
If we can't get above 2, my initial 2.5% expectation for the year is probably out of the question.
In general it looks right now that personal consumption will stay steady and be the largest positive contributor this quarter. Federal spending is also up big over the same quarter last year - about 12% real! (state and local spending is too much of a pain to corral and track).
But business investment is looking like it could actually be negative for the second quarter in a row. Net trade looks like close to a wash, or possibly another slight negative.
The Fed regional surveys and the NAI index haven't been promising this quarter, nor have the ISMs. But I still have an optimistic feeling. If we can call the 1.8 the market's expectation, I think we can await a pleasant surprise.
Some go as low as 1.2, which would be a bit shocking and put us below 2% year-over-year compared to 2018's Q3.
If we can't get above 2, my initial 2.5% expectation for the year is probably out of the question.
In general it looks right now that personal consumption will stay steady and be the largest positive contributor this quarter. Federal spending is also up big over the same quarter last year - about 12% real! (state and local spending is too much of a pain to corral and track).
But business investment is looking like it could actually be negative for the second quarter in a row. Net trade looks like close to a wash, or possibly another slight negative.
The Fed regional surveys and the NAI index haven't been promising this quarter, nor have the ISMs. But I still have an optimistic feeling. If we can call the 1.8 the market's expectation, I think we can await a pleasant surprise.
13
Posted on 10/29/19 at 2:30 pm to 90proofprofessional
We will easily exceed 3
Posted on 10/29/19 at 2:33 pm to ELVIS U
yes, we've heard and are still awaiting that
in the meantime it's been 3.1 and 2.0 for this year, and no years of 3
in the meantime it's been 3.1 and 2.0 for this year, and no years of 3
Posted on 10/29/19 at 2:35 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
So how are we all feeling
Oh lawd. The shtick. I love it.
Posted on 10/29/19 at 2:38 pm to 90proofprofessional
GDP is overrated in this new normal, it's all about the stock market dude.
Posted on 10/29/19 at 2:59 pm to roadGator
Posted on 10/29/19 at 3:10 pm to Bass Tiger
quote:
GDP is overrated in this new normal, it's all about the stock market dude.
This is humor correct?
Posted on 10/29/19 at 3:14 pm to 90proofprofessional
I'll say 2.2 just because GDP Now seems to be trending about a half a point low. 
Posted on 10/29/19 at 4:14 pm to 90proofprofessional
The S and P 500 broke a record...good enough for me 
Posted on 10/29/19 at 4:15 pm to 90proofprofessional
who knows. the USMCA is just sitting there waiting to boost the economy yet the Dems are anti American
Posted on 10/29/19 at 4:15 pm to 90proofprofessional
Are we going to overreact and rhetorically masturbate if it is less than 2? I bet some of us do.
Posted on 10/29/19 at 4:18 pm to DeathAndTaxes
I know GDP is outdated as an economic indicator because Adam Conover says so and he's an unbiased teller of truth.
Posted on 10/29/19 at 4:19 pm to 90proofprofessional
Consumption has decreased due to sentiment of recession. Investment has decreased due to sentiment of recession. Government spending is up. Net Exports are way down due to the appreciation of the dollar.
Y = C(-) + I(-) + G(+) + NX(-)
I’m going to say 1.5
Y = C(-) + I(-) + G(+) + NX(-)
I’m going to say 1.5
This post was edited on 10/29/19 at 4:21 pm
Posted on 10/29/19 at 4:21 pm to timdonaghyswhistle
quote:
I know GDP is outdated as an economic indicator because Adam Conover says so and he's an unbiased teller of truth.
It is a terrible indicator in today’s digital world. Technology is not a finished product or service that is measured by GDP in a lot of cases. Search engines are a good example of value that isn’t being captured.
Posted on 10/29/19 at 4:21 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:Hitting 3% (real) over any extended period of time is unrealistic. Just not going to happen. And this is with the tailwind of a massive stimulus which has likely pulled through a lot of demand.
So how are we all feeling about GDP numbers tomorrow? Can we keep it growing over 2% ?
WSJ's survey has a consensus pretty close to this GDPNow (GDPNow says 1.7, WSJ says 1.8%), including a 1.6 from Moody's & 2.1 from S&P.
Some go as low as 1.2, which would be a bit shocking and put us below 2% year-over-year compared to 2018's Q3.
Posted on 10/29/19 at 4:22 pm to OleWarSkuleAlum
Yes, my previous post not withstanding, I'm sure most Americans would be shocked by what is and isn't included in GDP.
Posted on 10/29/19 at 4:23 pm to 90proofprofessional
I'll take 2.1
Posted on 10/29/19 at 4:25 pm to OleWarSkuleAlum
quote:
Consumption has decreased due to sentiment of recession
not close to true for july or august, and i don't know how one would already know that if it were true for september (it won't be)
quote:
Investment has decreased due to sentiment of recession
that hasn't been the chief reason offered to the Fed branches by businesses, not by a long shot.
rest of that i mostly agree with, although you have to consider throwing retaliatory tariffs in there too
1.5 isn't too far from the middle of what the market expects, although i think that biz investment would have to be a massive drag (perhaps via inventories?) for that to happen. i did see one guy saying he expected 1.2 for exactly that reason though
Posted on 10/29/19 at 4:28 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
think that biz investment would have to be a massive drag (perhaps via inventories?)
Inventory is included in investment for GDP purposes. Once it’s sold it’s moved to the consumption category and the difference is removed from I.
Posted on 10/29/19 at 4:29 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
And this is with the tailwind of a massive stimulus which has likely pulled through a lot of demand.
Worth noting that that trillion-dollar deficit is worth about 5% of our annual GDP. Also the deficit is up by a few hundred billion since 2016 and 2017.
In fact come to think of it I saw earlier that the cumulative federal debt outstanding is up by just over $3 trillion since early 2017- just under 3 years.
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