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Posted on 9/8/19 at 12:46 am to scott8811
quote:
Now downgraded to 40%
yeah the chances of this thing developing has fallen with every update
Posted on 9/8/19 at 10:46 am to rt3
It's still going to drift westward which isn't good and depending on the path it could linger around then start to suck some fuel up. Did they change the projections like wind shear?
Posted on 9/8/19 at 10:52 am to rt3
Thats 40% development over 5 days
Could drift west and develop in 10 days if storm activity hold up
Could drift west and develop in 10 days if storm activity hold up
Posted on 9/8/19 at 10:53 am to deuce985
Just because chances have gone down in the 5 day range doesn’t mean it won’t develop beyond that. The GFS had Dorian repeats the last couple of runs. As matter of fact, the longer it takes to develop the more of a risk it becomes to get in the Gulf should it eventually develop.
Posted on 9/8/19 at 11:09 am to rds dc
SC Governor has issued mandatory evacuations for the entire coast for storm 94L.
Posted on 9/8/19 at 12:06 pm to BigB0882
quote:
Just because chances have gone down in the 5 day range doesn’t mean it won’t develop beyond that.
True. The vorticity survives out to at least 240 hrs on the Euro, which does eventually spin it up north of the Antilles.
The Euro didn't look friendly with the ridge either once it does get going. But it also does it more than a week from now, and anything out that far is hard to trust.
Posted on 9/8/19 at 3:20 pm to BigB0882
That's the point I'm making. If it doesn't develop into anything it's just going to drift westward until it finds a favorable environment.
Posted on 9/9/19 at 4:47 am to deuce985
Now down to 30%. May just dissipate.
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:26 am to Mr Clean
I kind of think the season is over for Louisiana if we can get through 21 more days. No long track CV systems that will infiltrate the GOM.
Seem s like from 1998-2012, Louisiana was under the gun with Ivan, Katrina, Gustav, Issac, Lilly, Rita, Georges. I think the return rate for landfall from ntracoastal city to boothville, la Is roughly 8 years.
Seem s like from 1998-2012, Louisiana was under the gun with Ivan, Katrina, Gustav, Issac, Lilly, Rita, Georges. I think the return rate for landfall from ntracoastal city to boothville, la Is roughly 8 years.
This post was edited on 9/9/19 at 9:27 am
Posted on 9/9/19 at 10:28 am to Klingler7
Things look favorable in the Atlantic starting about next week and into October.
The next seven days though, not extremely condusive.
Yeah though, once we get to October, we don't see many long trackers coming through the Florida Straights. Still have the WCar zone that loves to pop off in October and run north but they always seem to end up finding a way more NE. Like Nate and Michael. Really more concerned with a stalled front in the Bay of Campeche spin something up quick in October.
Few waves still to come off Africa and should be in play as the big picture gets more supportive.
The next seven days though, not extremely condusive.
Yeah though, once we get to October, we don't see many long trackers coming through the Florida Straights. Still have the WCar zone that loves to pop off in October and run north but they always seem to end up finding a way more NE. Like Nate and Michael. Really more concerned with a stalled front in the Bay of Campeche spin something up quick in October.
Few waves still to come off Africa and should be in play as the big picture gets more supportive.
Posted on 9/9/19 at 10:39 am to Duke
quote:
Things look favorable in the Atlantic starting about next week and into October.
Look favorable for development of storms or favorable that we're not all gonna die?
Posted on 9/9/19 at 10:45 am to SCUBABlake
quote:
Look favorable for development of storms or favorable that we're not all gonna die?
Favorable for storms. Just kind of used to talking in terms of health for storms.
Posted on 9/9/19 at 10:47 am to Duke
Haha no worries, just wanted to clarify.
Posted on 9/9/19 at 10:50 am to Duke
So youre saying we are in the clear for the year. Thanks baw. Just booked a carnival cruise out of nola for first week of october
Posted on 9/9/19 at 10:56 am to Cosmo
quote:
Just booked a carnival cruise out of nola for first week of october
Posted on 9/9/19 at 11:26 am to Cosmo
quote:
Just booked a carnival cruise
Hurricanes are the least of your concerns
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