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re: TS Jerry, TS Karen & More Areas to Watch - Peak Season

Posted on 9/7/19 at 7:22 pm to
Posted by scott8811
Ratchet City, LA
Member since Oct 2014
11697 posts
Posted on 9/7/19 at 7:22 pm to
Now downgraded to 40%
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
142796 posts
Posted on 9/8/19 at 12:46 am to
quote:

Now downgraded to 40%

yeah the chances of this thing developing has fallen with every update
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/8/19 at 10:46 am to
It's still going to drift westward which isn't good and depending on the path it could linger around then start to suck some fuel up. Did they change the projections like wind shear?
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
122405 posts
Posted on 9/8/19 at 10:52 am to
Thats 40% development over 5 days

Could drift west and develop in 10 days if storm activity hold up
Posted by BigB0882
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2014
5348 posts
Posted on 9/8/19 at 10:53 am to
Just because chances have gone down in the 5 day range doesn’t mean it won’t develop beyond that. The GFS had Dorian repeats the last couple of runs. As matter of fact, the longer it takes to develop the more of a risk it becomes to get in the Gulf should it eventually develop.
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
51967 posts
Posted on 9/8/19 at 11:09 am to
SC Governor has issued mandatory evacuations for the entire coast for storm 94L.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36167 posts
Posted on 9/8/19 at 12:06 pm to
quote:

Just because chances have gone down in the 5 day range doesn’t mean it won’t develop beyond that.


True. The vorticity survives out to at least 240 hrs on the Euro, which does eventually spin it up north of the Antilles.

The Euro didn't look friendly with the ridge either once it does get going. But it also does it more than a week from now, and anything out that far is hard to trust.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/8/19 at 3:20 pm to
That's the point I'm making. If it doesn't develop into anything it's just going to drift westward until it finds a favorable environment.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
122405 posts
Posted on 9/8/19 at 3:46 pm to
Or it dissipates.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/8/19 at 3:54 pm to
Yeah, hopefully it does.
Posted by otowntiger
O-Town
Member since Jan 2004
15834 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 4:47 am to
Now down to 30%. May just dissipate.
Posted by Mr Clean
New Iberia
Member since Aug 2006
50902 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 6:53 am to


quote:

Trump
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12110 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:26 am to
I kind of think the season is over for Louisiana if we can get through 21 more days. No long track CV systems that will infiltrate the GOM.

Seem s like from 1998-2012, Louisiana was under the gun with Ivan, Katrina, Gustav, Issac, Lilly, Rita, Georges. I think the return rate for landfall from ntracoastal city to boothville, la Is roughly 8 years.
This post was edited on 9/9/19 at 9:27 am
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36167 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 10:28 am to
Things look favorable in the Atlantic starting about next week and into October.



The next seven days though, not extremely condusive.

Yeah though, once we get to October, we don't see many long trackers coming through the Florida Straights. Still have the WCar zone that loves to pop off in October and run north but they always seem to end up finding a way more NE. Like Nate and Michael. Really more concerned with a stalled front in the Bay of Campeche spin something up quick in October.

Few waves still to come off Africa and should be in play as the big picture gets more supportive.
Posted by SCUBABlake
RIP WT6
Member since Jan 2008
40338 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 10:39 am to
quote:

Things look favorable in the Atlantic starting about next week and into October.


Look favorable for development of storms or favorable that we're not all gonna die?
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36167 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 10:45 am to
quote:

Look favorable for development of storms or favorable that we're not all gonna die?


Favorable for storms. Just kind of used to talking in terms of health for storms.
Posted by SCUBABlake
RIP WT6
Member since Jan 2008
40338 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 10:47 am to
Haha no worries, just wanted to clarify.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
122405 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 10:50 am to
So youre saying we are in the clear for the year. Thanks baw. Just booked a carnival cruise out of nola for first week of october
Posted by scott8811
Ratchet City, LA
Member since Oct 2014
11697 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 10:56 am to
quote:

Just booked a carnival cruise out of nola for first week of october


Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
92708 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 11:26 am to
quote:

Just booked a carnival cruise


Hurricanes are the least of your concerns
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