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re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
Posted on 8/21/19 at 8:02 am to TeddyPadillac
Posted on 8/21/19 at 8:02 am to TeddyPadillac
those projections are based on statistical modeling
the inputs take into account player impacts (PIPM), estimated minutes, strength of schedule
they differ dramatically from Vegas odds (subjective) but that’s where you find value, by using objective measurements to compare. just another tool, as nobody can see the future.
I’m just happy that the league appears to be more wide open this year for a change with a broad range of possible outcomes
the inputs take into account player impacts (PIPM), estimated minutes, strength of schedule
they differ dramatically from Vegas odds (subjective) but that’s where you find value, by using objective measurements to compare. just another tool, as nobody can see the future.
I’m just happy that the league appears to be more wide open this year for a change with a broad range of possible outcomes
1
Posted on 8/21/19 at 8:10 am to cgrand
I haven’t seen the actual data used for this, but let’s look at the lakers for example.
It’s clear that regression from lebrony is expected.
likewise from Davis as his usage rate will likely drop and he’s never played the minutes he is expected to play now.
outside those two the rest of the roster is comprised of role players with glaring weaknesses that drag down their advanced stats (which attempt to quantify impact on wins and losses). they should be a much better playoff team than regular season team, but this is projecting regular season wins. Danny green for example had an atrocious regular season last year, and not much better playoffs...he might be cooked, and he’s going to start and play 30 minutes as their third option
It’s clear that regression from lebrony is expected.
likewise from Davis as his usage rate will likely drop and he’s never played the minutes he is expected to play now.
outside those two the rest of the roster is comprised of role players with glaring weaknesses that drag down their advanced stats (which attempt to quantify impact on wins and losses). they should be a much better playoff team than regular season team, but this is projecting regular season wins. Danny green for example had an atrocious regular season last year, and not much better playoffs...he might be cooked, and he’s going to start and play 30 minutes as their third option
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