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Statistics say do not trade away a top 5 pick
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:08 pm
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:08 pm
Up until a couple of hours ago I was sort of on board with a trade of #4 for a later pick in the draft and another asset. Doing a little research has caused me to change my mind. The reason for this is the significant drop off in star potential outside of the top 5.
From 2000-2014:
75 Players selected 1-5, 26 stars - 35% chance of a star
75 Players selected 6-10, 9 stars - 12% chance of a star
60 Players selected 11-14, 1 star - 1.6% chance of a star
*My definition of a star is a multiple time all-star or all-nba selection, not someone who made a one-off all star game.
So, unless someone offers me an all-star for a top 5 pick, I'm not trading it away. I'd rather take 2 shots with a 35% chance of hitting big than trading back for a role player and greatly diminishing the odds of landing a franchise changing player. This league is about the stars. We should be focused on trying to get as many of them as possible over trying to find role players who fit. (P.S. top 5 picks also become solid role players 35% of the time, so there's a good chance to get a star and a solid role player on cost controlled contracts here)
ETA: I only included lottery picks in here because this took a lot of time and I had to make a cut-off somewhere lol
From 2000-2014:
75 Players selected 1-5, 26 stars - 35% chance of a star
75 Players selected 6-10, 9 stars - 12% chance of a star
60 Players selected 11-14, 1 star - 1.6% chance of a star
*My definition of a star is a multiple time all-star or all-nba selection, not someone who made a one-off all star game.
So, unless someone offers me an all-star for a top 5 pick, I'm not trading it away. I'd rather take 2 shots with a 35% chance of hitting big than trading back for a role player and greatly diminishing the odds of landing a franchise changing player. This league is about the stars. We should be focused on trying to get as many of them as possible over trying to find role players who fit. (P.S. top 5 picks also become solid role players 35% of the time, so there's a good chance to get a star and a solid role player on cost controlled contracts here)
ETA: I only included lottery picks in here because this took a lot of time and I had to make a cut-off somewhere lol
This post was edited on 6/20/19 at 3:11 pm
9
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:10 pm to Not Cooper
So the question becomes, if the Turner thing is real, what % chance do you give him of becoming a "star"? 35% of greater?
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:11 pm to Not Cooper
I tend to agree. Although if it’s a young guy like Turner who a lot of people think is a very good fit and could very well be an all star I’m totally fine with that too.
I definitely WOULD NOT do it for a solid mid 20s role player.
I definitely WOULD NOT do it for a solid mid 20s role player.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:13 pm to burdman
I don't even think it matters if he is a star or not. I think its more about putting together a solid starting 5 that are cohesive and spread the floor.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:13 pm to Not Cooper
I understand the argument but The 4th pick has usually been bad.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:16 pm to Not Cooper
I'd be interested in seeing the outcome by pick. I'd imagine the top 3 gobble up the majority of the stars.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:17 pm to burdman
quote:
So the question becomes, if the Turner thing is real, what % chance do you give him of becoming a "star"? 35% of greater?
Turner is a tough one. I think he has a good chance of making some All defensive teams, but I don't think he's a perennial all star. That's probably the big question Griff will have to answer
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:17 pm to Not Cooper
We don't need this pick to be a star.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:18 pm to burdman
quote:
So the question becomes, if the Turner thing is real, what % chance do you give him of becoming a "star"? 35% of greater?
Turner has a better chance of becoming an all-star than anyone selected at #4.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:18 pm to NOFOX
I would agree
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:21 pm to Not Cooper
Trading for a proven player: 100% of the time you get a proven player.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:22 pm to Not Cooper
What are the chances we draft 2 all stars in 1 draft? Take advantage of other teams and fill out the roster with needs.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:24 pm to bayarea_ryan
quote:
I'd be interested in seeing the outcome by pick. I'd imagine the top 3 gobble up the majority of the stars.
7 of the stars were pick 4 or 5. 19 were 1-3.
23% chance at 4/5, 42% from 1-3. You're right, but a 23% success rate is still double the hit rate from 6-10.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:28 pm to Not Cooper
quote:
7 of the stars were pick 4 or 5. 19 were 1-3.
23% chance at 4/5, 42% from 1-3. You're right, but a 23% success rate is still double the hit rate from 6-10.
Love the info. Thanks NotCoop!
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:28 pm to carrguitar
quote:
Trading for a proven player: 100% of the time you get a proven player.
You sure? Eric Gordon and Omer Asik come to mind. A rookie that ends up as a bust doesn't hurt you cause they make such a small % of the cap. Turner coming in and pulling a Gordon at $18 mil for the next 3 years would really hurt.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:29 pm to Not Cooper
quote:
Statistics say do not trade away a top 5 pick
Well, it appears we are going to.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:35 pm to Not Cooper
quote:
Eric Gordon and Omer Asik come to mind
Fair enough. But, I'd still put the chances of getting a proven player who's not an asshat or walking medical study (respectively), way above 35%.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:38 pm to carrguitar
quote:
But, I'd still put the chances of getting a proven player who's not an asshat or walking medical study (respectively), way above 35%.
True, it just so happens that the asshat and medical study are fresh on the mind and REALLY set us back lol.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:42 pm to Not Cooper
Quality thread. Thanks for doing the research. 
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:45 pm to burdman
quote:
So the question becomes, if the Turner thing is real, what % chance do you give him of becoming a "star"? 35% of greater?
Here is the follow-up question I have with Turner, if Indiana is feeling pressure to move him eventually because of Sabonis sometime in the next season or so, why would the Pels still not remain a front-runner for him with the assets and young players we have?
Who honestly can outbid the Pels? My guess is a deal for whoever we pick at 4 plus a late first rounder still gets it done in a year.
Why the rush to hand this pick off?
This post was edited on 6/20/19 at 3:47 pm
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