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re: 1st quarter GDP: 3.2%
Posted on 4/26/19 at 10:43 am to NC_Tigah
Posted on 4/26/19 at 10:43 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Is it that damn difficult to either simply accept the fact, or God forbid, to search for yourself?
Is it so hard for the OP to put up a link? Seriously, why even create a thread like this without a link? That's just lazy (and Bunyan is better than that).
I personally abhor stream-of-thought posts or posts claiming something but with nothing backing it up.
This post was edited on 4/26/19 at 10:44 am
Posted on 4/26/19 at 11:00 am to Bunyan
Damnation! To beat predictions by that much is im-fricking-ressive!
CNN's front page right now : Not a damn thing about the GDP, not even in the CNN Business section of their front page.
CNN Money: Zip
CNN Business: 2nd headline from the top
CBS News: Nada
AP News: You guessed it, nothing
ABC NewsTop headline in the upper left
NBC News and MSNBC: a couple of scrolls down on the right side
Fox News: Nothing
Fox Business: 2nd headline from the top
What a strange assembly of those who are running it versus those who aren't and how prominently.
CNN's front page right now : Not a damn thing about the GDP, not even in the CNN Business section of their front page.
CNN Money: Zip
CNN Business: 2nd headline from the top
CBS News: Nada
AP News: You guessed it, nothing
ABC NewsTop headline in the upper left
NBC News and MSNBC: a couple of scrolls down on the right side
Fox News: Nothing
Fox Business: 2nd headline from the top
What a strange assembly of those who are running it versus those who aren't and how prominently.
Posted on 4/26/19 at 11:03 am to Bard
quote:
Is it so hard for the OP to put up a link? Seriously, why even create a thread like this without a link? That's just lazy (and Bunyan is better than that).
There is a freaking link in the OP. What the hell are you talking about??
Posted on 4/26/19 at 11:16 am to Bunyan
quote:
There is a freaking link in the OP. What the hell are you talking about??
Looking at the time stamps it looks like you posted without a link, 90 asked/bitched about it and then you added one.
My point was more toward NC in that asking for a link, especially in the opening post of a thread, to provide some backup to a claim is (at least to me) less irritating than demanding someone asking the OP for a link go find their own link.
Posted on 4/26/19 at 11:40 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:yeah, you're right. the economy is definitely going in the wrong direction. which brings up a point, you love to harp on this one metric in a vacuum without spending much time on the overall picture. case in point, your crappy gdp threads and MUH FED
not on any underlying trends in what drives growth
quote:"no you didn't" -90proof
i know nobody actually wants substantive discussion, though
quote:first, what's wrong with that? second, people are looking at the big picture and it's quite rosy right now. as opposed to your TDS approach
we want to cheerlead
Posted on 4/26/19 at 12:42 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:then again, no one ever accused you of being sane
the guy trying to provide it consistently and in context gets shouted down. any substantive responses are exceedingly rare and are also rarely engaged with by the pack
Posted on 4/26/19 at 12:43 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:again, calling into question the point of your stupid gdp threads
state and local govt spending which is just hard to track
Posted on 4/26/19 at 12:46 pm to udtiger
quote:what? 90 beatdowns are one of the most fun things on this board. but let's be honest, zhe brings it on zhimself
How about rather than slam 90
Posted on 4/26/19 at 1:55 pm to Bunyan
quote:
1st quarter GDP: 3.2%
Wow that’s huge! Great numbers for first quarter
Posted on 4/26/19 at 3:19 pm to Bard
quote:No.
Looking at the time stamps it looks like you posted without a link, 90 asked/bitched about it and then you added one.
Look again.
90proofprofessional, the "I-Dunno-How-Ta-Do-Google-By-Myself" poster, "bitched about it" initially, and then again 5 mins AFTER the link was added . . . i.e., after "I-Dunno-How-Ta-Do-Google-By-Myself" could have confirmed the thing himself even if a link had not been posted.
CNBC/FBN both broke the news ahead of webreports.
CNBC, FBN, or Bloomberg TV was likely the initial OP source.
The OP updated with a weblink shortly after.
90pp didn't like the message, so he sought to somehow insult the messenger.
Posted on 4/26/19 at 3:32 pm to Bunyan
Dem congress putting in work.
That's how this is done right?
That's how this is done right?
Posted on 4/26/19 at 3:54 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
90proofprofessional, the "I-Dunno-How-Ta-Do-Google-By-Myself" poster, "bitched about it" initially, and then again 5 mins AFTER the link was added . . . i.e., after "I-Dunno-How-Ta-Do-Google-By-Myself" could have confirmed the thing himself even if a link had not been posted.
yeah great point, except i posted a link immediately in the post where i gave op shite about posting nothing but a # and a 90-melt
op edited a link into his afterward
quote:
90pp didn't like the message, so he sought to somehow insult the messenger.
swing and a miss
Posted on 4/26/19 at 3:56 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
No.
Look again.
Bunyan's first post:
1st quarter GDP: 3.2%Posted on 4/26/19 at 7:29 am
90's post:
re: 1st quarter GDP: 3.2%Posted on 4/26/19 at 7:32 am to Bunyan
90's edit:
This post was edited on 4/26 at 7:33 am
Bunyan's edit:
This post was edited on 4/26 at 7:34 am
The "5 mins AFTER the link was added" post wasn't bitching about there not being a link, he was responding to fjlee90's question regarding 90's own initial post asking for a link.
If it wasn't on a website for Bunyan to link yet he could have mentioned that in the post or mentioned it in a later post in response to 90.
Both you and I have asked for people to link things they've claimed on this site. I think griping about someone else doing it just because you don't agree with their politics is hypocritical.
Posted on 4/26/19 at 3:56 pm to bfniii
quote:
you love to harp on this one metric in a vacuum without spending much time on the overall picture
well that's just laughably false, even for you
for an example, take the information given in the OP of my tracker thread, or the basis of every single update being additional pieces of varying types of information updates on a regular basis
Posted on 4/26/19 at 3:57 pm to Bard
quote:
90's edit:
This post was edited on 4/26 at 7:33 am
i also stated exactly what the edit was in that post
Posted on 4/26/19 at 5:35 pm to Jrv2damac
So looking over the data, one thing that struck me as extremely odd was the GDP deflator suddenly dropped from 2.2% over the previous 4 quarters to about 0.65% (annualized) for this quarter.
In other words, nominal GDP over previois quarters grew by about 5.2%, but with the 2.2% deflator, real GDP grew by about 3.0%; however, in this quarter nominal GDP grew by about 3.8%, but the 0.6% deflator, real GDP grew by 3.2%.
Not only is the sudden decrease of almost 1.6% odd, both core measure of inflation (PCE and CPI) have been about 1% to 1.5% higher this quarter. So I would imagine that the deflator will be revised upward, and all else being equal, real GDP would be revised downward, which would be aligned with expectations.
In other words, nominal GDP over previois quarters grew by about 5.2%, but with the 2.2% deflator, real GDP grew by about 3.0%; however, in this quarter nominal GDP grew by about 3.8%, but the 0.6% deflator, real GDP grew by 3.2%.
Not only is the sudden decrease of almost 1.6% odd, both core measure of inflation (PCE and CPI) have been about 1% to 1.5% higher this quarter. So I would imagine that the deflator will be revised upward, and all else being equal, real GDP would be revised downward, which would be aligned with expectations.
This post was edited on 4/26/19 at 5:39 pm
Posted on 4/26/19 at 5:42 pm to Bunyan
Poor 90. It could be raining titties and he'd find a way to get hit with a dick.
Posted on 4/26/19 at 11:05 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:really, because i'm looking at your "know what else" thread and it has NOTHING about jobs numbers, housing market, trade, stocks, manufacturing, etc. nada. also, i've seen several of your stupid threads and the op almost invariably discusses gdp and forecasts and that's about it. you are a serial liar
well that's just laughably false
quote:usually a response to someone else who brought it up.
the basis of every single update being additional pieces of varying types of information updates on a regular basis
you are the worst. you're worse than ibfreeman. at least ib doesn't just straight up lie month after month
Posted on 4/27/19 at 5:50 am to buckeye_vol
inflation does look like it's actually been pretty low over the quarter, though. that deflator may get revised up a bit, but i do doubt that the quarterly rgdp figure gets meaningfully revised down
for me, i'm much more focused on the volatile parts that bumped this up, and on the more fundamental ones that were so weak (particularly consumption, which makes up on average the majority of gdp, and has to over the long-term drive most of its growth).
i don't think consumption will be as weak in q2 as it was in q1. but there could easily be a somewhat nasty snap back in inventories, net exports, and state/local govt spending. if not that, a gradual drag over the year from those things
for me, i'm much more focused on the volatile parts that bumped this up, and on the more fundamental ones that were so weak (particularly consumption, which makes up on average the majority of gdp, and has to over the long-term drive most of its growth).
i don't think consumption will be as weak in q2 as it was in q1. but there could easily be a somewhat nasty snap back in inventories, net exports, and state/local govt spending. if not that, a gradual drag over the year from those things
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