ATL Fed - 4Q18 GDP Projections fall to 1.4%

More Fake News

Thanks

This is a weird quarter to forecast due to the government shutdown. Are these economic reports data deficient due the the shutdown?

The New York Fed is predicting 2.23%. LINK And the consensus is between 2.2 and 3.0.

We'll just have to wait for the real numbers from the BEA.

The GDP release will be on the 28th. This is about a month late due to the shutdown.

Irishtiger89, why are you so much more pessimistic on economy than most Americans? It is by far the biggest bright spot of trump’s presidency. He consistently polls high on economic approval questions. Economic sentiment is highest since late 90s, early 2000s. Gallup data has financial happiness at highest level in 16 years

Your post history seems to indicate you since 2017 aren’t nearly as positive.

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The New York Fed is predicting 2.23%

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In the final estimate before the advanced release, ATL Fed is much more accurate than the NY Fed, although there is limited data for the NY Fed’s model.

Using that limited data and regressing it on the BEA advances estimate, the below site found that a weighting of 0.842 for ATL’s and 0.119 for NY’s gives an accurate prediction. So if this was the final projection that would result in an estimate of 1.44%.

I bet it will be higher but it needs to be around 3.63% to hit 2.95% (and round up to 3.0%) for the full-year annual change.

An update on the GDP Nowcast models

The global economy has been slowing for months and months yet American labor market is still churning out robust job reports each month

The stock market is off to best start for year since 1987

We have almost completely clawed back what was lost last year

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Not only does the Atlanta model produce unbiased forecasts (the average error is close to zero), but it also produces the most accurate prediction with the smallest absolute forecast error of about 0.6% in absolute values.

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When I did this analysis of the Atlanta Fed I had a much smaller data set and came up with a 0.68% error.

Thanks for that link BTW.

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The GDPNow model estimate

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About as accurate as climate change models.

No thanks.

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The global economy has been slowing for months and months yet American labor market is still churning out robust job reports each month

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Unemployment is a lagging indicator though.

I am still relatively bullish on the economy overall. The only serious soft spot in housing, and I think other things can offset so that we don't dip into a recession. Or its a mild recession. I am not an economist by trade though, but i do follow it closely.

Industrial production and retail sales aren’t looking great right now

Go look at the bond markets