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How DHS determines how many illegal border crossings take place
Posted on 1/30/19 at 7:18 pm
Posted on 1/30/19 at 7:18 pm
Some of you have argued that we can't possibly know this. Well, I've found this document on the Department of Homeland Security's website that goes into detail on how they come up with the numbers.
According to this DHS document, the number of illegal border crossings on the Southwest border has dropped from over 800k in 2006 to less than 100k in 2016.
This document was provided to Congress as directed by law. Maybe this is why Congress doesn't think a wall is needed - DHS told them the numbers have plummeted. Not sure why some people are suddenly so concerned when they weren't in 2006.
According to this DHS document, the number of illegal border crossings on the Southwest border has dropped from over 800k in 2006 to less than 100k in 2016.
This document was provided to Congress as directed by law. Maybe this is why Congress doesn't think a wall is needed - DHS told them the numbers have plummeted. Not sure why some people are suddenly so concerned when they weren't in 2006.
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Posted on 1/30/19 at 7:22 pm to foshizzle
You can throw that away because a president can alter it anytime through the DHS Sec
That’s how Obama was able to lie about deporting so many.
That’s how Obama was able to lie about deporting so many.
Posted on 1/30/19 at 7:24 pm to foshizzle
Well there are utter dumbshits on your side who want to give anybody who crawls over free health care so it really doesn't matter how many there are.
It doesn't matter when one of them kills you with their car either.
It doesn't matter when one of them kills you with their car either.
Posted on 1/30/19 at 7:28 pm to foshizzle
Because in 2006, this bill was being signed:
WIKI: Secure_Fence_Act_of_2006
Oh. And Obama, Clinton and Schumer all voted YEA for this.
WIKI: Secure_Fence_Act_of_2006
Oh. And Obama, Clinton and Schumer all voted YEA for this.
Posted on 1/30/19 at 7:29 pm to foshizzle
100k per year is still absolutely a crisis in a country with welfare and income tax.
Posted on 1/30/19 at 7:34 pm to nugget
I wonder if the government leach Foshizzle would let us reduce the number of government jobs by the amount of illegal aliens every year. 100k comes in, we lay off 100k federal workers.
Posted on 1/30/19 at 7:46 pm to foshizzle
O screwed up the economy so bad everyone snuck back into Mexico.
Posted on 1/30/19 at 9:20 pm to nugget
quote:
100k per year is still absolutely a crisis in a country with welfare and income tax.
Were you complaining when it was 800k a year? If not, why not?
And it's been more than ten years since then. So far, we still have a country right?
Posted on 1/30/19 at 9:48 pm to foshizzle
You may want to actually read what you posted, specifically the methodology.
In Baltimore they call it juking the stats.
In Baltimore they call it juking the stats.
Posted on 1/30/19 at 9:51 pm to foshizzle
It’s on the rise again though.
There were 24k arrested just from October 1st to Christmas in the El Paso sector.
There were 24k arrested just from October 1st to Christmas in the El Paso sector.
Posted on 1/30/19 at 9:53 pm to foshizzle
100k a month is what they mean.
Posted on 1/30/19 at 9:55 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
O screwed up the economy so bad everyone snuck back into Mexico.
Ogeron has his faults but you can't blame him for the economy.
Posted on 1/30/19 at 10:17 pm to IllegalPete
quote:
You may want to actually read what you posted, specifically the methodology.
In Baltimore they call it juking the stats.
If you want to question the methodology involved, I'll allow it. Be advised I studied statistics in a Ph.D. program, but if you can intelligently discuss this I will too.
So far everyone else has just been randomly downvoting and yammering about this or that based on how they feel.
Posted on 1/30/19 at 10:19 pm to nugget
quote:
100k per year is still absolutely a crisis in a country with welfare and income tax.
Posted on 1/31/19 at 5:10 am to foshizzle
quote:
If you want to question the methodology involved, I'll allow it. Be advised I studied statistics in a Ph.D. program, but if you can intelligently discuss this I will too.
I read several pages of your link - and I have not darkened the door of any Ph.D program, but I am an aerospace engineer with 35 years experience in reading technical documents and designing simulations at NASA in Clear Lake City, TX.
Whatever point the link is trying to make is decipherable only to someone deeply immersed in the methodology and objectives of the report. It is not designed to explain the methodology to any level of intelligence NOT immersed in its development.
Certainly, not 2 members of congress understand it. For instance, you will never convince me that Sheila Jackson Lee or Patty Murray understand it.
However, I am deeply interested in this topic - I have often wondered how estimates of 'those we didn't catch" are made - and to what confidence level those estimates can be trusted.
I would appreciate it if you - as someone well versed in the field - would give us a thumbnail description of the methodology.
I'd really like to know. This document would require months of dedicated research fro me to even understand the phraseology.
Could you help me out?
Rendezvous guidance for space vehicles is a rather complicated affair - I think I could give you some idea of how the methodology works without relying on the arcane definitions known only to theoretical research physicists.
Help a brotha out - I assure you I am genuinely interested in how they do this.
Posted on 1/31/19 at 6:50 am to ChineseBandit58
quote:
However, I am deeply interested in this topic - I have often wondered how estimates of 'those we didn't catch" are made - and to what confidence level those estimates can be trusted.
58, Id like for one, just one dem explain this to me. The 90% are caught at the border crossings mantra. Just answer that one question "how do you know what you dont know?". Common sense would tell any sane person if we are doing such a good job at the crossings......millions have crossed somewhere else where there is 10% focus.
Regarding crossing stats. During the obama administration they combined those deported with those turned around at the border, then compared that with previous administration figures of deportees ONLY. Obviously far more are turned around at the border, thus the numbers looked like obama was "the great deporter". It also started the rhetoric that more people were migrating to mexico than migrated to the states. The argument was the downturn in the US economy, you know mexico was the only country in the world who apparently had great opportunities when the rest of the world was in a recession, therefore every illegal was heading home.
In the last couple of years of obama, when catch and release came into effect full force, there was virtually no enforcement whatsoever.
The 100 grand number is actually those released into the US, not those caught/stopped etc. Ironic they are using the success of all the policy changes to argue not to continue them.
Posted on 1/31/19 at 7:00 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
"how do you know what you dont know?".
This is the core question I have had since this whole topic came up -
What I'd like to see is a statement like = "we capture ___ % of all attempted illegal border crossings"
Are they claiming to thwart 10%, 50%, 90% of all attempts??
And how do they know THAT??
Posted on 1/31/19 at 7:37 am to foshizzle
quote:
How DHS determines how many illegal border crossings take place
Probably the same way the government counts Red Snapper in the GOM
Posted on 1/31/19 at 7:37 am to msu202020
A wild arse guess?
Posted on 1/31/19 at 7:38 am to foshizzle
quote:
How DHS determines how many illegal border crossings take place
1 Mississippi, 2 Mississippi, 3 Mississippi, etc.
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