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Started By
Message
CFB Betting Thread Week 13
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:20 am
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:20 am
It's hard to believe that this thread hasn't been started already, but i went through four pages and saw nothing, so firing it up.
I know that many did not have a delightful week last week. Me, I made the mistake of spreading myself too thing -- always something that one has to be mindful of very damn week...restraint is hard -- and I cut against what could have been a really really nice Saturday as a result. My most confident games -- which were of course my biggest money games -- were Iowa and UCF and that was #freemoney defined. My lesser confidence stuff missed -- texas tech is a notable example -- and made the Saturday more of a grind thatn I would have liked for it to be.
But being positive is better than being negative, and so onwward I shall march.
Current spreads and odds: LINK
Some of those lines as posted were too good to be true and have moved in the direction I didn't want them to (my guy doesn't take plays until two days prior to games). But there are still a number of games i like.
Early leans
buffalo
iowa
oklahoma
oregon
Houston
Michigan
Florida
nc state
uab
utah state
I know that many did not have a delightful week last week. Me, I made the mistake of spreading myself too thing -- always something that one has to be mindful of very damn week...restraint is hard -- and I cut against what could have been a really really nice Saturday as a result. My most confident games -- which were of course my biggest money games -- were Iowa and UCF and that was #freemoney defined. My lesser confidence stuff missed -- texas tech is a notable example -- and made the Saturday more of a grind thatn I would have liked for it to be.
But being positive is better than being negative, and so onwward I shall march.
Current spreads and odds: LINK
Some of those lines as posted were too good to be true and have moved in the direction I didn't want them to (my guy doesn't take plays until two days prior to games). But there are still a number of games i like.
Early leans
buffalo
iowa
oklahoma
oregon
Houston
Michigan
Florida
nc state
uab
utah state
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:23 am to MidnightVibe
got buried in CFB last week then went 4-0 +$550 in NFL LOL.
Like OU and Wash early.
Like OU and Wash early.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:29 am to Carson123987
quote:
got buried in CFB last week then went 4-0 +$550 in NFL LOL.
Way to bounce back
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:29 am to MidnightVibe
ill take ball st +17.5 tonight
Posted on 11/20/18 at 2:29 pm to Winston Cup
No action for me tonight.
Anybody have thoughts on the egg bowl?
Anybody have thoughts on the egg bowl?
Posted on 11/20/18 at 4:23 pm to MidnightVibe
I am 26-20 on the year. Last week of picks for a group I’m in is this week. It’s simple, pick 4 games. I’m tied for the lead. I need me 4 locks after 1-3 last week.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 4:37 pm to MidnightVibe
quote:
egg bowl
I’m starting to have a strong lean toward Moo State. I think the Bulldogs are hungry after the loss last year, coupled with Fitzgerald injury.
State has played well as of late, even in losses. Ole Miss trending the opposite direction. I think defense beats offense.
Hoping the line gets to 10.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 4:53 pm to MidnightVibe
quote:
Anybody have thoughts on the egg bowl?
Ole Miss is not going to lay down, although the matchup on paper heavily favors MSU.
Weird game - line seems perfect.
Posted on 11/21/18 at 12:03 am to MidnightVibe
I was awful early in the day and then great late for a winning day last week. Still pissed how UAB kept shooting themselves in the foot not to cover.
Early plays
SMU -2.5 (got at -2)
LA Tech -11
Wisconsin -10
Early plays
SMU -2.5 (got at -2)
LA Tech -11
Wisconsin -10
Posted on 11/21/18 at 12:29 am to Billy Mays
quote:
Ole Miss is not going to lay down, although the matchup on paper heavily favors MSU.
This is the reason some often shy away from rivalry games. And it's the same reason that I actually love playing rivalry games.
You know both teams are coming to play, so you can toss any "situational analysis" out the window as being irrelevant. Which focuses the analysis to "who is better at football, and how much better are we talking here."
I believe the notion that rivalry games tend to produce upsets is a myth and that if someone took the time and energy to actually crunch those numbers -- something which I will not be doing, to be clear -- I would be willing to wager that upset rates in games that we can predefine and set-aside as "rivalry games' are less than the average rate of occurrence across the board.
Hmmm...I wonder if somebody ever has done such an analysis?
Posted on 11/21/18 at 8:28 am to MidnightVibe
Weather is supposed to be bad in Pullman Friday. Who do y’all think the bad weather impacts more?
Posted on 11/21/18 at 9:53 am to Carson123987
quote:
got buried in CFB last week then went 4-0 +$550 in NFL LOL.
I find every year I do way better in CFB weeks 1-6, and get crushed in the NFL and then it flips in the second half of the season.
As i try to take my P&G glasses off, someone convince me from just dumping funds on LSU +3. Line has been moving the other way for a while and I just don't get it.
Posted on 11/21/18 at 9:57 am to MidnightVibe
quote:
Anybody have thoughts on the egg bowl?
SO i have some thoughts.
oM is doing a BOGO for ticket sales if that gives you any indication at how apathetic the fan base is.
Fitz will run and run and run against our D.
I thin their Dline will shut our already not good run game down and make us have to pass and against good Defenses, we don't do that well.
We won't be able to play a shootout against the state D.
We may move the ball through the air, but our offense notoriously bogs down in the red zone and settling for field goals won't cut it when we give up TD's every possession on Defense
State 42 Om 17
This post was edited on 11/21/18 at 10:05 am
Posted on 11/21/18 at 10:19 am to barry
quote:
As i try to take my P&G glasses off, someone convince me from just dumping funds on LSU +3. Line has been moving the other way for a while and I just don't get it.
I don't see either side of that one being #freemoney. I see that as a game that could easily go either way.
Posted on 11/21/18 at 10:21 am to Lawyered
quote:
oM is doing a BOGO for ticket sales if that gives you any indication at how apathetic the fan base is.
Fitz will run and run and run against our D.
I thin their Dline will shut our already not good run game down and make us have to pass and against good Defenses, we don't do that well.
We won't be able to play a shootout against the state D.
We may move the ball through the air, but our offense notoriously bogs down in the red zone and settling for field goals won't cut it when we give up TD's every possession on Defense
State 42 Om 17
I appreciate the analysis. I'm either going to bet on Cowbell or I'm not gonna have any action on Thursday. I'm leaning towards betting on Cowbell.
Posted on 11/21/18 at 11:00 am to MidnightVibe
the only reason i am hesitant to lay the 11 is that ole miss needs 1 more win to get bowl eligible. but do they want to go to a bowl? ole miss has lost 4 in a row after getting their 5th win. have been playing much more competitive in the last 6 than earlier in the year. maybe they are buying in/coach starting to implement?
texas
coastal car
west va
wash st
if im feeling ballsy kent st +13.5
texas
coastal car
west va
wash st
if im feeling ballsy kent st +13.5
Posted on 11/21/18 at 11:04 am to Winston Cup
quote:
am hesitant to lay the 11 is that ole miss needs 1 more win to get bowl eligible. but do they want to go to a bowl?
Bowl ban bruh...
Our season is over after tomorrow night no matter what thank God.
Posted on 11/21/18 at 11:30 am to Lawyered
I’m on
Grinders/Clanga/Cowbell -10 -115
OU pk 2 units
Washington +4 -112
Grinders/Clanga/Cowbell -10 -115
OU pk 2 units
Washington +4 -112
Posted on 11/21/18 at 4:11 pm to DallasTiger45
65-37-1 YTD
Currently on
OU -2 W
MSU -10.5 W
MSU U61W
Games Circled
Michigan -4 Lol
LSU +3W
Houston +7 L
BC -7 L
Kentucky -17 W
OK St -4
Maryland +14 L
Bama O52 W
Bama -23 W
UCF -14 W
WSU -2 L
Currently on
OU -2 W
MSU -10.5 W
MSU U61W
Games Circled
Michigan -4 Lol
LSU +3W
Houston +7 L
BC -7 L
Kentucky -17 W
OK St -4
Maryland +14 L
Bama O52 W
Bama -23 W
UCF -14 W
WSU -2 L
This post was edited on 11/25/18 at 4:05 pm
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