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Started By
Message
Nate Silver, most outcomes show republicans retain house
Posted on 11/5/18 at 7:56 pm
Posted on 11/5/18 at 7:56 pm
quote:
"The range of outcomes in the House is really wide," he explained. "Our range, which covers 80 percent of outcomes goes from, on the low end, about 15 Democratic pickups, all the way to low to mid 50s, 52 or 53." "Most of those are under 23, which is how many seats they would need to win to take the House," he said."
quote:
"But no one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats," Silver added. "Those are both extremely possible, based on how accurate polls are in the real world."
He’s stating he has no clue
LINK
This post was edited on 11/5/18 at 8:16 pm
18
Posted on 11/5/18 at 7:57 pm to Strannix
Shhhhh
Posted on 11/5/18 at 7:58 pm to Strannix
Already preparing for a bust eh Nate?
This post was edited on 11/5/18 at 7:59 pm
Posted on 11/5/18 at 7:59 pm to Bourre
That doesn’t mean those outcomes are all equally likely.
Again, there is no statistical evidence (whether current polls or historical trends) that point to Rs holding.
Again, there is no statistical evidence (whether current polls or historical trends) that point to Rs holding.
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:00 pm to beebefootballfan
quote:
Already preparing for a bust eh Nate?
I don’t think he trust his algorithms, which is why is talking them down.
He can’t say that of course.
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:00 pm to Strannix
Oh so now this cumquat calls it for republicans on night before it’s called???
And 7 days ago he had it 86% democrat!
Would you call him a tool of DNC or Soros???
And 7 days ago he had it 86% democrat!
Would you call him a tool of DNC or Soros???
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:01 pm to Strannix
His website, fivethirtyeight, still has dims with an 85ish% chance of taking the house. Did he misspeak?
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:02 pm to Strannix
quote:
which covers 80 percent of outcomes
quote:
Most of those are under 23, which is how many seats they would need to win to take the House
So let's say 41%.
Lets be generous and say 50/50 on the other 20%. (This may be explained, but I didn't click the link.)
So 51% Republicans retain control, Nate?
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:02 pm to Little Trump
Democrats +30 in the House. Jan 3, 2019, House will be 223 Dems and 212 Repubs.
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:03 pm to Strannix
So he lied about polls all along. Now, right before the election, he tells the truth to save his reputation.
Where have we seen this before?
Where have we seen this before?
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:04 pm to Strannix
Actually he currently has it as 1 in 8 that Repubs keep house which is only a 12%
chance.
I hope he is as wrong as he was in 2016
chance.
I hope he is as wrong as he was in 2016
This post was edited on 11/5/18 at 8:09 pm
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:04 pm to GeorgeWest
quote:
Democrats +30 in the House. Jan 3, 2019, House will be 223 Dems and 212 Repubs.
You can pull shite out of your arse just like a pro!
You won't be here if you are wrong
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:04 pm to MisslePig
quote:
Again, there is no statistical evidence (whether current polls or historical trends) that point to Rs holding.
Bwahahahahahaha
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:05 pm to Strannix
quote:
FiveThirtyEight's election forecaster Nate Silver said Sunday that the House could end up in Democratic or Republican hands in Tuesday's election, though polling predicts that Democrats will flip the chamber.
"So in the House we have Democrats with about a 4 in 5 chance of winning," Silver told ABC's "This Week."
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However, he noted that "polls aren't always right."
"The range of outcomes in the House is really wide," he explained. "Our range, which covers 80 percent of outcomes goes from, on the low end, about 15 Democratic pickups, all the way to low to mid 50s, 52 or 53."
"Most of those are under 23, which is how many seats they would need to win to take the House," he said."
"But no one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats," Silver added. "Those are both extremely possible, based on how accurate polls are in the real world."
I think he is saying that theres a good possibility either side gets the house, not that the GOP is most likely to win.
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:07 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
forecaster Nate Silver said Sunday that the House could end up in Democratic or Republican hands in Tuesday's election
Way to call it Nate Plastic
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:11 pm to NYNolaguy1
So basically this con artist says that either the democrats or republicans will win House? It won’t be a tie and no one but R’s or D’s win House
Kinda hard for him to be wrong there isn’t it! ;-)
Kinda hard for him to be wrong there isn’t it! ;-)
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:12 pm to NYNolaguy1
He hasn’t been close about calling anything in years
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:13 pm to Strannix
Dude's worse than a meteorologist...
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:14 pm to GeorgeWest
quote:
by GeorgeWest
Democrats +30 in the House. Jan 3, 2019, House will be 223 Dems and 212 Repubs.
^^^ Let’s check you Wednesday morning
I’m guessing you’re wrong like Silver at 86% democrat just 7 days ago. How did it change so much in 7 days?
Posted on 11/5/18 at 8:15 pm to Strannix
So they have a 4 in 5 shot of winning but most of the scenarios don’t have them winning the house?
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